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“Mr. Obama also came to office saying, and apparently believing, that a more deferential America would be better respected around the world. He will finish his term having disproved his own argument. The real lesson of the last four years—a lesson as much for Republican isolationists as for Democrats who want to lead from behind—is the ancient one that weakness is provocative.”
The New World Disorder As the U.S. retreats, bad actors begin to fill the vacuum.
By their nature, foreign policy problems often have a long fuse. The successes of one Administration (Truman, Reagan) sometimes don’t pay off for years (Bush 41), while dangers can simmer until they suddenly explode (al Qaeda). The Obama Presidency has been an era of slowly building tension and disorder that seems likely to flare into larger troubles and perhaps even military conflict no matter who wins in November.
This is the bigger picture behind this week’s public fight between the U.S. and Israel, as well as the anti-American violence in Cairo and Benghazi. In the Persian Gulf, across the Arab Spring and into the Western Pacific, the U.S. is perceived as a declining power. As that perception spreads, the world’s bad actors are asserting themselves to fill the vacuum, and American interests and assets will increasingly become targets unless the trend is reversed.
The Administration can’t be blamed for the 9/11 anniversary attack in Benghazi, which was an act of terrorism by anti-American Islamists that wasn’t stopped by a weak new government. Chris Stevens, the first U.S. Ambassador killed abroad in 33 years, was one of America’s most capable diplomats who was deeply engaged in the post-Gadhafi transition. Libya’s government has condemned the attack, and one test of its desire for close U.S. ties will be whether it punishes the perpetrators.