RUTHFULLY YOURS

The Russian military intervention in Syria, and the creation of a new regional alliance which includes Iran and Iraq, removes one undesirable outcome from the complex equation. The collapse of the government in Damascus, and its replacement by some form of jihadist-dominated Sharia regime which would spell the end of the non-Sunni minorities (including Christians), is no longer on the cards.

It does not herald the advent of a new era of moderation and realism among the key players, however, which would lead to a political settlement in the near future. Even if Moscow and Washington could agree on the broad outline of a new political framework—from which the old upfront demand for Bashar al-Assad’s immediate ouster would be removed—it is doubtful that they could impose on their regional allies a blueprint which is at odds with their strategic ambitions. Those ambitions remain fundamentally incompatible.

In the “American” camp, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Oman would be loath to accept the end of their plan to turn Syria into a permanent Sunni Muslim wedge dividing what they see as a putative Shiite-dominated crescent extending from Iran across Iraq and Syria into northern Lebanon. For all of them the issue is eminently geopolitical, and it is not at all compatible with the stated primary U.S. objective of defeating ISIS (the rhetoric of removing “Assad’s murderous regime” notwithstanding). They do not care who does the stopping.

The Russian state-controlled propaganda machine has been working around the clock to promote the success of Russia’s aerial bombing campaign in Syria, which began on September 30, to a reluctant domestic public. According to the independent pollster Levada-Tsenter, the propaganda has been effective: Over 70 percent of the Russian population supports the bombing of Islamic State (IS—also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, ISIS) targets in Syria; and about half believe Russia must support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad against the IS and the Syrian opposition. At the same time, half of the Russian population fears Syria may turn into a “new Afghanistan”—a costly and deadly long-term commitment that may end in defeat and humiliation, like the Soviet Afghan invasion in the 1980s, which lasted almost ten years and is still remembered with dread (Interfax, October 8).

The Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) daily briefings in Moscow show footage of airstrikes, allegedly killing “ISIS terrorists” in droves and destroying their weapons and infrastructure. The Russian defense and foreign ministries have been adamantly denying as “information warfare” claims that Russian bombs are mostly hitting not the IS, but the Syrian opposition and the civilian population. Foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova called on the United States to use a channel of communication between the Pentagon and the Russian MoD to clarify reports of alleged attacks on the Syrian opposition and resolve disagreements, instead of going public and discussing differences in the press (Kommersant, October 6)

WASHINGTON — As many as four of the 26 long-range cruise missiles that Russia said it fired at Syrian targets landed instead in Iran, U.S. defense officials said Thursday.

The officials said it’s unclear whether the errant missiles, launched from Russian ships in the Caspian Sea, caused any significant damage in Iran. Both the Russian government and state-run Iranian media accused the United States of inaccurate or deliberately deceptive statements.

Three U.S. officials said four missiles went off course. The officials were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

The Russian line is that they’re in Syria to fight ISIS. But the Russians, like the Turks, Iranians and Europeans, don’t care about ISIS. By declaring itself a Caliphate, ISIS made itself non-aligned. The fighting in Syria isn’t about ISIS. It predated the rise of ISIS as a major player. It’s about Syria.

ISIS has become a convenient excuse for converging on Syria. But no one is there because of ISIS.

The Turks are bombing Syria for their old hobby of killing Kurds. Turkey will occasionally bomb supposed ISIS targets for propaganda purposes, but mostly its air force bombs the Kurdish enemies of ISIS. Russia will do the same thing, hitting ISIS for propaganda purposes, but focusing on Sunni anti-Assad groups.

Pravda is the most abused word in the Russian language. Though it means “truth,” we learned it as the name of a Soviet-era, government-controlled newspaper that printed everything except the truth. That same newspaper has returned to its old habits, telling the world that President Vladimir Putin is taking over the war against terrorism that President Obama has abandoned.

It doesn’t take much to parse this one out. Mr. Putin’s direct military intervention in the Syrian conflict is: (a) undertaken to defend the Bashar Assad regime, which we have declared a state sponsor of terrorism since 1979 when Bashar’s daddy ran the show; (b) in partnership with Iran’s kakistocracy, which is the most powerful and dedicated sponsor of terrorism on earth; and (c) isn’t aimed at defeating the nominal terrorist enemy, the Islamic State, or ISIS, but rather is designed to consolidate and grow Russia’s influence in the Middle East at America’s expense.

MOSCOW—In Syria, Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to take a page from his Ukraine playbook by keeping the West guessing about his plans, employing the military art of deception known in Russia as maskirovka, or camouflage.
Analysis

Last year he surreptitiously sent Russia’s army into Ukraine, reversing the advance of Ukrainian government forces and bringing pro-Russia rebels a more-favorable peace settlement. Now, he’s repeating the gambit in Syria: shoring up his ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and ensuring the Kremlin will have a central role in deciding the country’s future.

Russia stepped up its attack on Mr. Assad’s opponents Wednesday, firing cruise missiles into Syria from warships in the far-off Caspian Sea. At North Atlantic Treaty Organization headquarters, the U.S. ambassador said Russia had built up a battalion-sized ground force in Syria, one equipped to take on a bigger mission than just defending Russian military bases there.

The Orthodox Christian Church, which holds an important place in an insurgent Russia, has described its government’s fight against the Islamic State and other jihadi opposition groups in Syria as a “holy war.”

According to Vsevolod Chaplin, head of the Church’s Public Affairs Department,

The fight with terrorism is a holy battle and today our country is perhaps the most active force in the world fighting it. The Russian Federation has made a responsible decision on the use of armed forces to defend the People of Syria from the sorrows caused by the arbitrariness of terrorists. Christians are suffering in the region with the kidnapping of clerics and the destruction of churches. Muslims are suffering no less.

This is not some new “gimmick” to justify intervention in Syria. For years, Russia’s Orthodox leaders have been voicing their concern for persecuted Christians. Back in February 2012, Putin met with representatives of the Russian Orthodox Church. They described to him the horrific treatment Christians are experiencing around the world, especially the Muslim world:

The head of External Church Relations, Metropolitan Illarion, said that every five minutes one Christian was dying for his or her faith in some part of the world, specifying that he was talking about such countries as Iraq, Egypt, Pakistan and India. The cleric asked Putin to make the protection of Christians one of the foreign policy directions in future.

Yom Kippur Guide for the Perplexed
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger,\Based on Jewish Sages

http://www.theettingerreport.com

1. Yom Kippur’s central theme is the plea for forgiveness from fellow
human-beings, highlighting the most essential attributes of constructive
leadership, healthy relationships and family and national cohesion: humility
(admitting fallibility), faith, soul-searching, thoughtfulness, being
considerate, compassion, accepting responsibility, minimizing personal
hostility, magnanimity. In order to penetrate the heart of fellow
human-beings, the plea for forgiveness must emanate from the heart. Yom
Kippur is not driven by punishment, but by behavioral-enhancement.

Adventures in Obama Land – The Nobel Prize Committee Honors ‘The One’Pam Meister Friday’s news that Barack Obama won this year’s Nobel Peace Prize was a surprise to pretty much everyone. It’s proof that not all surprises pleasant ones. Rush Limbaugh opened his show Friday by saying, “There aren’t words for this. Well, there are, […]