The true story behind yet another ‘extreme weather event’By Sierra Rayne
As the capital of Canada’s oil sands, Fort McMurray, burns to the ground in a massive forest fire, out come the commentators talking about climate change.
At the National Post, Jen Gerson writes the following:
All that said, it sure doesn’t seem at all implausible that the Fort McMurray fire was caused or, at least, exacerbated by climate change. I mean, come on. It’s 30C in early May. We had no winter. There’s little snow on the mountains. The Bow River never froze. For goodness’ sake, there were rafters on it as if it were high summer over the weekend.
As for the Bow River apparently never freezing, and the rafters on it last weekend, we can ignore that comment, since the Bow River passes through Calgary in the southern end of the province, literally 440 miles south of Fort McMurray. Calgary’s average temperatures in January are a full 10°C warmer than those in Fort Mac, as they call it.
Gerson argues that she will “unpack the thing that has been made unmentionable by those who wish to remain sensitive to Fort Mac’s plight: climate change. Here will be the required caveats; one cannot link any single extreme weather event to climate change.”
Single extreme weather event? Since when is a forest fire an “extreme weather event”? What exactly is that single extreme weather event that took place recently in Fort McMurray?
Is it that “[i]t’s 30C in early May”? Indeed, it did get above 30 C on Tuesday in Fort Mac.
I mean, come on – like that has never happened before. Such as on May 3, 1937 (31.7 C), or May 4, 1944 (33.3 C), or May 2, 1980 (30.6 C), or May 7, 1987 (30.8 C)…or what about April 29, 1980 (30.2 C)?
There was “no winter” in Fort McMurray this year?
The average temperature this past December was -10.4 C, which isn’t close to a record warm for this month. January came in at -13.9 C. Again, nowhere near a record. February was -9.8 C. Yet again, not in the remote neighborhood of a record. Neither March nor April was especially hot, either. Likely warmer than average, but nowhere near record warm.
Even the winter of 2015-16 average temperature looks to be about 3 C off a record warm. In other words, Fort Mac had a winter this year.