https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/11/pennsylvanias_mail_ballot_results_
All of the major networks started confidently predicting yesterday that Joe Biden would win Pennsylvania after all the mail-in ballots that had been received by the state had been counted. The numbers gurus at the networks reported that Biden was capturing 78% of the votes from mail in ballots, and Trump 21%. In other words, Biden was winning this vote group by 57%,
This margin seems too high, based on the party registration of those whose mail in ballots have been confirmed.
The party registration data suggests that Democrats were 65.5% of those who returned mail ballots, Republicans 23.4% and independents 10.4%. If independents split their votes evenly, then one possibility was that Biden would win this voter pool by 42.1%, the difference between their 65.5% share of registered voters who returned mail ballots, and Republicans’ share of 23.4%. Let us then assume that independents broke heavily for the Democrats, say 80-20, Then Democrats would have about a 48.3 % lead, 73.8% to 25.5%. Let us further assume that more registered Republicans shifted to Biden than registered Democrats to Trump, so that the real margin was 50%.
How does the Biden victory margin change with different shares of the mail in vote?
At 42.1% (50/50 split of independents returning mail ballots), Biden wins this pool of 2,506,507 by 1,055,260
At 48.3% (80/20 split of independents), Biden wins by 1,210,667
At 50%, Biden wins by 1,253,279
At 57%, the margin reflecting the state’s announced results, Biden wins by 1,428,737