https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2020-11-5-the-ascendancy-of-the-basket-cases-2020-edition
The very first posts on this blog went up on November 6, 2012. By pure coincidence, that was election day — the day when Barack Obama was re-elected to his second term as President. By late that evening we knew the result. (Doesn’t that seem so quaint now?) It did not appear to be close: Obama had won 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206.
The next day, November 7, I wrote a post about the result, which I titled “The Ascendancy of the Basket Cases.” That post pointed out that the election was much closer than it may have seemed. In fact, the overall result turned on the outcome in a handful of states; and in each of those states, Obama had run up a huge margin in some major city, which was then sufficient to overcome a substantial Romney majority in the rest of the state. The particular handful of cities in question, which had determined the election result, were not just any cities, but what I called the “basket cases”:
What do I mean by “basket case” cities? They are the poster children for the failure of government spending to improve people’s lives and incomes, cities in decline where decades of government programs have brought only shrinking populations, vast vacant zones, fleeing businesses, high crime and low income. Yet they provide very large electoral majorities for the candidate promising to further expand the failed programs.
Which cities? In 2012 it was Detroit (Michigan), Cleveland (Ohio), Philadelphia (Pennsylvania) and Chicago (Illinois). Obama had won all four of those states. Actually, it would only have taken a flip of any three of the four for the election to have gone to Romney.