https://issuesinsights.com/2024/08/28/wheres-kamalas-convention-bounce/
Two days ago, Nate Silver, the media’s favorite polling “expert” who on election day in 2016 gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning, said polls had Kamala Harris 5 points ahead of Donald Trump and that “our best guess is that her lead will increase further, especially given that almost none of the polling was done after her strong acceptance speech on Thursday.”
Of course, Silver was hardly alone. The leftist media was fully expecting a big bounce in Harris’ poll numbers.
So, where is Kamala’s big convention bounce?
The Morning Consult found Harris’ lead over Trump unchanged since last Thursday.
A Yahoo/YouGov poll, which was also conducted after the convention, found that “if Harris got a ‘bounce’ from the DNC, it was a very small one — too small to alter the fundamentally deadlocked nature of the 2024 contest.”
The RealClearPolitics average had Harris at 48.3% last Monday. It is currently at 48.4%. But her lead over Trump actually shrank slightly, from 1.6 points last Monday to the current 1.5.
The FiveThirtyEight average had Harris at 46.7% last Monday, and 47.1% this Monday. It also shows that her lead over Trump has declined since the convention ended last Thursday, going from 3.7 on Aug. 23 to 3.4 now.
And, Harris’ odds of winning went from 51% chance on Aug. 19 to 49% today, according to Polymarket. Trump’s went from 47% to 50%.