RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://issuesinsights.com/2024/01/12/will-trumps-rising-support-from-minority-voters-put-him-back-into-the-white-house-ii-tipp-poll/

As 2023 has ended and a new year begun, those looking for a big change in the presidential polls for either major party may be disappointed. The I&I/TIPP Poll taken in early January shows that both President Joe Biden (69% support) and former President Donald Trump (65%) have big leads currently in the primaries for their respective parties.

With little competition so far from others, what about the head-to-head competition between Biden vs. Trump?

I&I/TIPP’s national online I&I/TIPP Poll of 1,247 registered voters taken Jan. 3-5 shows that Trump holds a slender 1 percentage-point lead over Biden if the election were held today. The actual numbers are 41% Trump, 40% Biden, a virtual statistical tossup given the poll’s +/-2.8 percentage point margin of error.
However, significant problems lurk for both candidates, but mainly for Biden, the data show.

Biden runs strongly in urban areas, taking 55% of that vote to Trump’s 31%. But the suburbs favor Trump 44% to Biden’s 38%, while Trump’s lead in rural areas is even larger: 49% Trump, 27% Biden. Urban voters in the I&I/TIPP survey make up just about 30% of all voters.

An even larger problem looms for Biden when it comes to minority voters, in particular blacks and Hispanics. In 2020, according to a Roper Survey exit poll of voters, Biden took an estimated 87% of the black vote and 65% of the Hispanic vote running against Trump, who received an estimated 12% of the black vote and 32% of the Hispanic tally.

This time around might be a surprise for the Democrats, who have long held a tight lock on the votes of the country’s two-largest minorities. Current I&I/TIPP data show Trump getting a near-identical level of Hispanic support as in 2020, 31%, but Biden’s backing has plunged from more than 60% to just 53%.

ttps://issuesinsights.com/2024/01/10/one-in-four-americans-now-believe-bidens-election-in-2020-wasnt-legitimate-ii-tipp-poll/

It’s a question that infuriates some, but remains on the minds of many: Was Joe Biden legitimately elected to the presidency in the hotly contested 2020 election? While most say he was, just over one in four U.S. voters believe the answer is no, according to the latest I&I/TIPP Poll.

The national online poll, taken January 3-5 from among 1,247 registered voters, asked: “To what extent do you agree or disagree with the statement: Joe Biden was legitimately elected president.”

Of those polled, 65% said that they agreed either “strongly” (50%) or “somewhat” (15%) with that statement. But another 26% said they disagreed either “somewhat” (9%) or “strongly” (17%), while 9% said they were not sure. The poll has a +/-2.8 percentage point margin of error.

But, when it comes to political affiliation, the responses show some of the most skewed results yet in an I&I/TIPP Poll. It’s fair to say that Democrats, Republicans and independents are far apart in their responses.

Among Democrats, 92% believe Biden was elected legitimately, with 80% agreeing “strongly” and 12% “somewhat.” Just 4% disagreed.

For Republicans, the numbers told a different tale.

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4389558-joe-bidens-extremist-spending-is-a-danger-to-the-us/

Joe Biden says “Extreme Maga Republicans” want to wreck the economy by cutting federal spending. And yet, it is his administration’s blowout budgets that are extreme. Never in this country’s history, with the exception of two emergencies — World War II and COVID — have we spent taxpayer money so recklessly. 

Consider: in just the past three months, the federal debt of the United States jumped by $1 trillion. The U.S. now owes $34 trillion, up from $33 trillion at the end of September. For reference, it took 198 years of borrowing for the government to rack up its first trillion dollars of debt; that milestone was first reached in 1981.   

Putting that gargantuan figure in context, debt held by the public in 1981 amounted to about 25 percent of GDP; today’s debt amounts to more than 100 percent of GDP. Our debt is bigger than the entire economy of every single country in the world but the U.S. and China. 

The Peterson Foundation further puts our debt in perspective, noting that “$34 trillion is enough to cover a public four-year degree for every graduating high-school student for 106 years.”  

This should worry everyone. There’s a reason that Fitch Ratings downgraded United States’ credit rating from “AAA” to “AA+” last year, several years after S&P made the same decision. The last ratings agency still awarding U.S. debt its platinum rating is Moody’s; last year they lowered the outlook to “negative” from “stable,” citing a drop in “debt affordability.”    

https://www.racket.news/p/note-from-the-campaign-trail

SIOUX CITY, IA — I’ve done this gig so many times I have Pavlovian reactions to certain airports, but having never flown here, I didn’t know Sioux City’s three-letter code is SUX. That’s the name of the car that raged-out ex-councilman Ron Miller demands when he takes the Detroit mayor hostage in Robocop. “I want something with reclining leather seats that goes really fast and gets really shitty gas mileage,” he shouts, Uzi in hand.

“How about a 6000 SUX?” a police captain bullhorns back. Miller likes it, but wants cruise control. “I want a recount!” he yells, stepping over bodies. “And no matter how it turns out, I want my old job back!” So the story connects. Who’d have thought?

Anyway, Sioux City’s cool, just never came this way.

I started covering presidential campaigns in 2004. The problem then was the events were fake. Candidate speeches were market-tested piles of words designed to attract the statistical middle of the middle. In post-event asides, aides pretended to socialize and fed you rehearsed spiels over beers about their candidate’s path to victory. Everything was canned. A memory that stands out is plastic clumps of grass scotch-taped to reporters’ seats on Howard Dean’s “grassroots express” charter. It was hard to divine much, traveling in that mechanized sales hell.

Now things are reversed. Reality is altered before you leave the house. Challengers are censored or deamplified, the incumbent “brushes off” debates, vote counts are shady (what’s with Iowa Democrats waiting until Super Tuesday to announce caucus results?), and even ballots are curated. Coverage of everyone but the President and whoever’s currently pushed as the “viable” Republican alternative to you-know-who (“Could Haley Beat Trump? Big Donors are Daring to Dream,” writes the New York Times) is a desert of lies and hit jobs. Even public reaction is edited. A controversial guest essay by lefty legal scholar Samuel Moyn in the Times arguing the Supreme Court should vote 9-0 to return Trump to the Colorado ballot appears devoid of approving comments. I could buy most disapproving, but it looks more like all. Who can tell, without checking for yourself, where public sentiment is now?

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/biden-and-the-polls-hes-fallen-and-he-cant-get-up

BIDEN AND THE POLLS: HE’S FALLEN AND HE CAN’T GET UP. In an interview with the Financial Times, the longtime Washington political analyst Charlie Cook noted that President Joe Biden’s job approval rating has been stuck below 50% for a long time, 2 1/2 years, and shows no signs of rising above 50% anytime soon. “There seems to be virtually no elasticity there,” Cook said. “I wonder whether people have just changed the channel — they’ve just written him off.”

To understand what Cook said about “elasticity,” look at the Gallup Presidential Job Approval Center. Biden started his presidency, in January 2021, with a 57% approval rating. He stayed around that level until the beginning of the summer, and then the slide began. By July 2021, Biden fell below 50% for the first time and has never returned. He fell below 40% in July 2022 and is at 39% today.

For 2 1/2 years, Biden’s job approval has bounced in about an 8-point range between highs in the mid-40s and lows in the high 30s. That’s what Cook meant about lack of elasticity — Biden doesn’t seem to go up and down in relation to his accomplishments or lack of accomplishments. He just sort of sits there, like voters have written him off.

Some Biden supporters like to point out that former President Barack Obama had some tough times in the polls before he won reelection in 2012. Yes and no. Obama began his first term, in January 2009, on a huge high — 67% approval in the Gallup rating. But by November of that year, Obama had fallen below 50%. The difference between Obama and Biden is 1) Obama occasionally rose back to 50% or higher, as he did in February and April of 2010 and January and May of 2011, and 2) although Obama fell to 40% a few times, he never sank below that.

The great hope of Biden partisans is that he will rise in the polls as November’s election approaches, as Obama did in 2012. In late August of 2012, Obama sat at 44%. Then, as the general election campaign moved into high gear, Obama rose to 52% by October. That’s where he was when he defeated Republican challenger Mitt Romney and won a second term.

So can Biden replicate that feat? It seems safe to say, although not guaranteed, that his polls will increase in September and October, no matter whom he is facing as a Republican opponent. That just generally happens as Democrats and Republicans dig into their partisan positions with an election approaching. But where will Biden start from? Obama rose from 44% to 52% to win. What if he had started at 34% or even 38%? It would have been a much tougher job.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/30/nikki-haleys-first-real-test-of-2024-00133336

Nikki Haley is finally under the microscope.

After evading attacks for weeks from her Republican rivals, it was a town hall question about the origins of the Civil War that finally seemed to stick.

And it couldn’t have come at a worse time. With weeks to go before voting starts, Haley is now facing the first major test of her ability to withstand a maelstrom in the presidential campaign. It is a significant moment not only for the former South Carolina governor, but for the broader effort among Republicans hoping to stop Donald Trump from steamrolling to the nomination.

“This is Haley’s first time under the bright lights, and she must power through this and tackle Trump now,” said Scott Reed, a veteran GOP strategist. “Or else.”

Haley’s rivals treated her Civil War comments as a lifeline for their own dimming prospects in the race. DeSantis and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie quickly condemned her answer at their own campaign events this week. And Haley, the former U.N. ambassador, spent much of Thursday addressing questions about her remarks, putting her in the position of explaining rather than selling her candidacy.

For nearly a year — from her beginning as a long shot to her recent rise in polls — Haley went relatively unscathed. Her opponents have highlighted, with little effect, her evolving answers on issues like abortion and transgender rights. But they spent less money against her, too. As of Wednesday, Haley had $14 million spent against her in negative advertising, compared with nearly $37 million for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and $19 million for Trump, according to Rob Pyers, a nonpartisan data analyst. Trump has focused his hammer-like attacks on DeSantis, not Haley. And much of the media scrutiny over the past year focused on the Florida governor’s campaign missteps and policy proposals

But that changed Wednesday night in Berlin, New Hampshire. Haley’s halting and convoluted response to a town hall questioner — and her ensuing attempts to clarify her comments, later acknowledging slavery as a cause of the Civil War after first declining to do so — put a harsh spotlight on her, arguably for the first time during the primary. Within hours, news outlets had begun digging into her past remarks on the issue, resurfacing an interview she’d given in 2010 in which she offered similar beliefs about the root causes of the Civil War.

https://www.racket.news/p/the-mess-in-maine

Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows decided Thursday to remove Donald Trump from the state’s presidential ballot. Jared Golden, a Democratic congressman from Lewiston who voted to impeach Trump over the January 6th riots, quickly issued a statement:

We are a nation of laws, therefore until he is actually found guilty of the crime of insurrection, he should be allowed on the ballot.

Eight years ago this month, the big story in the presidential race was whether or not Trump was out of line in saying Hillary Clinton got “schlonged” in the 2008 primary. A Washington Post “linguistic investigation” quoted Steven Pinker in saying that “given Trump’s history of vulgarity… it’s entirely possible that he had created a sexist term for ‘defeat,’” but the paper concluded that Trump’s problem was that “he’s a gentile who, linguistically, may have wandered too far from home.”

Normally campaign season is a period of heightened engagement, as people scour the Internet to research even the most inane questions, knowing that at the end of the process, they get to cast votes on them. It’s why news companies tend to fatten up in election years, like Grizzlies during salmon runs. People are absorbed by dramas in which they feel themselves to be participants.

This year the public is being forced to research questions in which they have no say. We all understand now that there’s a disqualification clause in the 14th Amendment. We also understand that this clause seems to have been written with deliberate vagueness. I’m no lawyer, but I doubt the 14th Amendment was designed to empower unelected state officials to unilaterally strike major party frontrunners from the presidential ballot. If it was, that’s a shock. I must have missed that in AP Insane Legal Loopholes class. Is there any way this ends well? It feels harder and harder to imagine.

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/newsmaker-interview-trump-puts-iran-europeans-and-antisemites

Newsmaker Interview: Trump puts Iran, Europeans and antisemites on notice, dispels Nikki rumors: John Solomon

In an extensive interview, the former president lays out an expansive vision to Just the News if he is elected to a second White House term ranging from Ukraine War to the southern border crisis.

Former President Donald Trump is sending some pointed messages to friends and foes alike: No, Nikki Haley is not on his vice presidential list because there isn’t one right now. Yes, if he returns to the White House European countries had better get ready to pay more for the Ukraine war. And both federal agencies and nonprofits that espouse antisemitic views and threaten Jews should prepare to lose federal funding or even their tax-exempt status.

In a wide-ranging interview with Just the News, the 45th president surveyed the sort of policies he’ll pursue if voters return him to office next November as the nation’s 47th president. He made clear securing the U.S. southern border is a top priority as is cutting off the sources of income from oil sales and reclaiming the unfrozen funds that he says has revived Iran’s terrorism activities across the globe on Joe Biden’s watch. Those activities include recent rocket and drone attacks from proxy groups targeting U.S. troops. The United States said Tuesday that it had shot down 12 attack drones and five missiles launched by the Iran-backed Houthis.

“Iran was allowed to get rich because Joe Biden allowed them to,” Trump told the “Just the News, No Noise” television show on Real America’s Voice. “So he could say whatever he wants. But he’s the reason for this. He’s an incompetent president. He’s a compromised president, totally compromised. But he allowed them to get rich.”

“But worse than being rich, because of the money, because of what they have, they will have within a short period of time nuclear weapons,” Trump added. “And that is never something that can be allowed to happen.”

Trump made clear he plans to return U.S.-Iran policy to a strict regimen of sanctions to choke off any funding for Tehran to use on weapons or terrorism support.

https://sashastone.substack.com/p/an-ex-democrats-case-for-trump

“Are you a Trump supporter now?” is the question my friends, acquaintances, and colleagues sometimes ask me. I know the answer to that question could end our relationship. So do they. Most of the time, they just don’t ask. They quietly assume that I might be, but what they don’t know can’t hurt them.

Since 2016, being labeled “Trump supporter,” has given most people the green light to cut ties, publicly humiliate, attack, and dehumanize at will. What you will rarely see on the Left is empathy. What has become all too common is unfiltered, bottomless hatred. In too many cases, physical violence, and destructive protests, all justified and encouraged by the ruling class.

2020 was the breaking point for me. I could no longer go along with it, especially after getting to know Trump supporters, and watching enough rallies to know the truth about who Trump really is.

And now, after the Colorado decision to throw Trump off the ballot, there has been a terrifying escalation in how they plan to deal with Trump and MAGA. What started as “cancel culture,” where due process was tossed in favor of trial by mob has spread to the government, infecting it like a parasitic fungus that ultimately kills its host.

From censorship to their treatment of the political protesters of January 6th, to what they’ve done to this country’s Justice Department, much of its culture, its universities, and the minds and bodies of children, it’s time to say ENOUGH.

It was already enough when the sitting President of the United States was banned from Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube. It was enough when they raided Mar-a-Lago when they convicted Trump in a show trial on primetime television that idiots on the Left now seem to believe counted as a real trial.

The four indictments are ENOUGH. Two impeachments are enough. Scaring the public every day, whipping up mass hysteria just for clicks, just for engagement, just for ratings is ENOUGH. Robert DeNiro’s ongoing freak-outs are enough. Stephen Colbert’s unfunny jokes are enough. A culture that has destroyed itself over an imaginary monster they invented is enough.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/california-lieutenant-governor-calls-for-trump-to-be-removed-from-state-ballot/

A California official is now calling for former president Donald Trump to be removed from California’s 2024 presidential-election ballot following the Colorado supreme court’s ruling that removed Trump from its state’s ballot.

In a letter dated Wednesday, California lieutenant governor Eleni Kounalakis (D.) urged California secretary of state Shirley Weber (D.) to “explore every legal option to remove former President Donald Trump from California’s 2024 presidential primary ballot,” given the Colorado supreme court’s decision. On Tuesday, the court voted 4–3 to disqualify Trump from appearing on the Centennial State’s ballot because he allegedly incited an insurrection on January 6, 2021.

“This decision is about honoring the rule of law in our country and protecting the fundamental pillars of our democracy,” Kounalakis wrote to Weber.

“California must stand on the right side of history,” Kounalakis added. “California is obligated to determine if Trump is ineligible for the California ballot for the same reasons described in [Anderson v. Griswold]. The Colorado decision can be the basis for a similar decision here in our state. The constitution is clear: you must be 35 years old and not be an insurrectionist.”

Under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, no person can assume public office if they “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” against the U.S. However, a district court concluded last month that the so-called insurrection clause “did not intend to include the President as ‘an officer of the United States’. . . [or] a person who had only taken the Presidential oath.”