RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://freebeacon.com/columns/crime-starters-usa/

New York governor Kathy Hochul is a case study in denial. The unelected Democrat is in trouble because she won’t acknowledge the danger of rising crime. When challenger Lee Zeldin, a Republican congressman from Long Island, brought up public safety during last week’s debate, Hochul scoffed. “I don’t know why that’s so important to you,” she said. She might as well have stuck her tongue out at voters. Support for Zeldin has surged in recent days.

Hochul may yet win. New York hasn’t voted for a Republican governor since 2002. Whatever the outcome — and Zeldin has a path to victory — the takeaway is clear: Crime is once again a matter of national concern.

Look at the polls. Sixty-one percent of registered voters told the Pew Research Center this month that violent crime is very important to their midterm vote. An October Gallup poll had crime in third place, after the economy and abortion. The October Fox poll showed that crime was second only to inflation in voters’ minds. According to another recent Gallup survey, a record 56 percent of Americans say there is more crime in their area than there was last year.

Hochul blames this sentiment on mass delusion. “These are master manipulators,” she told MSNBC on October 30. “They have this conspiracy going all across America trying to convince people in Democratic states that they’re not safe.” Hochul didn’t say who “they” are. She meant Republicans.

The truth is that Hochul is the one who’s out of touch. The reason voters are worried about crime is that crime has been rising. Sensational stories of subway murders, carjackings, kidnappings, and shoplifting are not isolated events. Murder and assaults have increased nationwide since 2019. Murder has dropped off somewhat since the beginning of this year, but the decline has been unevenly distributed and other forms of violent crime are going up. The lawlessness that spread across the country in 2020 hasn’t abated.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/how-grim-is-the-outlook-for-incumbents-below-50-percent/

As Greg Corombos observed on Wednesday, we’ve reached that time of year when the moment many of us type the letter “R” in a web browser, we automatically load the URL for the RealClearPolitics list of the day’s latest polls.

But there’s a school of thought that argues that what polling aggregates really give us is a sense of the level of support the incumbent enjoys. Incumbency carries a lot of advantages in American politics — usually, strong name recognition, some degree of public application of what one has accomplished in office, and significant advantages in fundraising. Most years, between 91 and 98 percent of incumbents get reelected.

There’s a rule of thumb that an incumbent who is polling above 50 percent is safe, and an incumbent polling below 50 percent is in trouble. After all, the voters already know who the incumbent is and what they think of him. If they don’t like him, they’re usually, at minimum, looking for other options.

For what it’s worth, way back in 2010, Nate Silver argued that “the incumbent 50 percent rule” was an oversimplification. “It may be proper to focus more on the incumbent’s number than the opponent’s when evaluating such a poll — even though it is extremely improper to assume that the incumbent will not pick up any additional percentage of the vote.” But I think most of us can agree that an incumbent would rather be above 50 percent than below it, and the higher your support in late polling, the better your chance of reelection.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/11/the_medias_coverage_of_kari_lake_takes_bias_to_new_extremes.html

“What’s made Lake a national phenomenon is that, on the campaign trail, her instincts are extraordinary. She’s beautiful, intelligent, has tremendous presence and—perhaps most importantly—is unafraid of the media.”

When it comes to Kari Lake, the mainstream, drive-by, leftist media is in pants-wetting mode. In a fair world, as a candidate for the Arizona governorship, Lake would get admiring or, at least, objective coverage. But we don’t live in a fair world, so the media is attacking Lake with a savagery previously reserved only for Donald Trump (after he became a Republican candidate).

Until 2021, Lake was best known in the Phoenix area, where she worked for 22 years as a television news anchor at KSAZ-TV. Her political identity was kind of all over the place. She was originally a Republican, a registration she kept until 2006. That was when, because she was dismayed by George Dubya’s wars (which saw her voting for John Kerry in 2004), she switched to Independent. Then, in 2008, clearly dazzled by Obama, she registered as a Democrat and donated to several Democrat campaigns. However, in 2021, she launched her gubernatorial campaign as a Republican.

Despite being substantially outspent during the Republican primary, Lake won handily. Perhaps it was because she didn’t let Democrats bully her into hiding her suspicions that something was deeply wrong with the 2020 election results.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-taxes-that-must-not-be-named-11667581288?mod=hp_opin_pos_6#cxrecs_s
The Taxes That Must Not Be Named James Freeman

More than a decade after former Gov. Scott Walker signed into law reforms to protect Wisconsin taxpayers from the increasingly expensive burdens of government employee unions, Democrats still can’t stop talking about him—even if they can’t bring themselves to mention his name.

Mr. Walker left office almost four years ago and isn’t on the ballot this year. But at a Democratic rally in Milwaukee County’s West Allis on Thursday, several speakers angrily referred to “he who must not be named.” Mr. Walker’s signature law, Act 10, was described in tones one might reserve for a description of a heinous crime. After enacting this sensible 2011 reform that limited the collective bargaining power of government unions and made public employees cover more of the costs of their expensive benefit plans, Mr. Walker further enraged the left by making Wisconsin a right-to-work state. This also explains why he was a favorite villain on Thursday at the event hosted by the United Steelworkers at a local union hall.

***

As for the event’s headliner, Democratic Senate candidate Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, it seems there are also a few other things he isn’t eager to mention.

Mr. Barnes is challenging Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson and there is no race in the country that offers a sharper philosophical contrast. The New York Times recently reported that helping Mr. Barnes get elected is the top priority of Vermont’s socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders, who has generously assisted with fundraising. During the Democratic primary, Mr. Barnes received endorsements from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D., N.Y.) and other prominent advocates for government expansion.

Mr. Johnson, on the other hand, is perhaps the most spirited and effective defender of the taxpayer in Washington—a town where there aren’t many of them. An accountant who used to run a manufacturing company, Mr. Johnson habitually annoys his congressional colleagues by pointing out the destructiveness of their spending habits.

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2022/11/03/protester-assaults-republican-u-s-senate-candidate-in-new-hampshire-n1642451

Don Bolduc, the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire, reportedly avoided an attacker’s punch just before taking the stage for Wednesday’s debate with Democratic incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan.

Bolduc, 60, a retired Army brigadier general, was unharmed during the incident. Police identified the assailant as Joseph Hart, 37, of Greenville, R.I.

“Prior to that debate, dozens of supporters were on hand for both candidates,” local police said in a statement. “During that time, St. Anselm College instructed a male party that they were no longer welcome on their property.”

“A short time later, a disturbance occurred when Mr. Hart approached Mr. Bolduc who was greeting his supporters,” the statement continued. “Officers converged on the area and all parties were separated. Following that disturbance, Mr. Hart was taken into custody by the Goffstown Police Department and charged with criminal trespass and disorderly conduct.”

The Bolduc campaign said in a statement the incident was proof that it’s “time to lower the temperature of the political discourse in this country” and expressed gratitude towards local law enforcement for their quick response.

Incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan has led in the polls for most of the campaign, but two recent polls have shown Bolduc ahead, and RealClearPolitics now projects him to win the race.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/11/03/democrats_face_historical_headwinds_in_tuesdays_midterm_elections_148415.html

Regardless of all that wispy smoke Democrats and their allies in the news media are blowing, key polls suggest Republicans are still likely to win back control of the House of Representatives in Tuesday’s midterm elections and have a better than even chance to take over the Senate.

Historically, one of the strongest indicators – perhaps the strongest indicator – of how a party will do in midterm elections is the job approval rating of the incumbent president. Parties of presidents who are down in the polls usually lose congressional seats. Parties of presidents up in the polls generally gain seats in the midterms.

In other words, how a president is doing a reliable predictor of how Americans will vote in congressional elections.

The latest October Gallup Poll has President Biden’s job approval at 41% among registered voters. Among voters dissatisfied with how things are going in the country, three of four disapprove of Biden. With numbers like that, most Democrats on the ballot should be running scared.

Key indicators suggest Americans are in a sour mood over a slew of issues.

COVID and its disruptions of everyday life still have people anxious. High cost of groceries, gasoline, and mortgages are straining family budgets. Rising crime and murder rates in cities have people fearful. And the relentless tide of illegal immigration at the southern border poses serious physical and financial challenges to communities struggling to absorb migrants.

https://www.commonsense.news/p/the-hollywood-power-brokers-mugged?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

“This is like a breaking point,” said Nicole Avant, who served as U.S. ambassador to the Bahamas under Barack Obama and is the wife of Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos. We were talking about Los Angeles, where she was born and grew up and met her husband. “Who is in charge here? How is this happening? It’s the drug addicts in front of people’s houses, it’s people naked in the street—there’s so much chaos, and Rick is the opposite of that, and we just need to reel things in and do things in a different way.” She was referring to Rick Caruso, the billionaire real-estate developer running for mayor of the second-biggest city in the country.

Avant is black Hollywood royalty. Her father, Clarence Avant, now 91, was a legend in the music industry, managing the likes of Sarah Vaughan, Freddie Hubbard and Bill Withers. They called him the Black Godfather. 

So you might think that Avant would be supporting Karen Bass’s bid to be mayor of Los Angeles. Bass, who is black, is a six-term Democratic congresswoman. In 2020, she was on Joe Biden’s vice-presidential shortlist. Days ago, Obama, Avant’s old boss, endorsed her.

But Avant is backing Bass’s rival, Caruso—who was a Republican for years, and then, in 2011, switched his registration to “decline to state,” and then, in January of this year, switched to Democrat, just in time to run for mayor in a city overflowing with Democrats.

To Avant, to any number of Caruso supporters, all that is beside the point. Los Angeles, they say, is heading toward a cliff and everything is at stake in this election.

Avant said she found it “very insulting” when Bass supporters told her she had an obligation to support Bass because she’s a black woman. “I don’t ever vote on race or gender,” Avant said. “I’m a free thinker. People told me not to support Barack Obama and to support Hillary Clinton for the same reason, because she’s a woman. You can’t win.”

“The concept of hiring the best person for the job, especially in a situation like this, is not gone,” Bryan Lourd, co-chairman of the Creative Artists Agency and a Caruso supporter, told me. “I don’t think this city survives with more of the same old ideas about leadership.” (CAA is the biggest shop in town and represents, among many other celebrities, Scarlett Johansson, Steven Spielberg, Ava DuVernay and Reese Witherspoon.)

https://victorhanson.com/how-the-projectionist-game-is-played-part-two-election-denialist/

Think of any recent leftwing accusation against the Right. Then automatically assume that it is evidence of the accuser’s own culpability for the very charge he levels against others. In other words, the Left projects upon its opponents exactly what it fears is most incriminating among its own ranks. As a general rule, leftwing projectionism is a sign of culpability.

Donald Trump did deny the integrity of the 2020 election and does to this day. While he is probably wrong that the final and “real” popular vote count would have given him a popular vote victory, he is right to lodge legitimate objections to the way the balloting was conducted in some states on the following bases:

a) The Left funded a massive effort to change balloting laws in key pivotal states under the cloak of the Covid pandemic in spring 2020. The effect of liberal state court decisions or administrative edicts was often to nullify the state legislatures’ laws and rights to establish voting procedures. More practically, they changed state laws on the books that governed the rejection rate of non-Election-Day ballots. The result was the rejection rate dropped in many states even as they were flooded with historic numbers of non-Election Day ballots, most of them for Joe Biden.

A normal 3-5 percent rejection rate fell, depending on the state, to between 2.0 and 0.5 percent—despite more than 102 million ballots not cast on Election Day. Ballots that did not match registrars’ lists, that had incomplete or wrong names, that did not have full addresses, or that did not have signatures or signatures that matched the printed names, were often accepted. And there may have been many millions of such ballots that in prior elections would have been summarily rejected.