RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://amgreatness.com/2022/10/25/desantis-leads-democratic-challenger-among-hispanic-voters/

With two weeks left to go until the 2022 midterms, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) is currently leading Democratic challenger Charlie Crist (D-Fla.) with Hispanic voters in the state.

As reported by The New York Post, the latest poll from Telemundo and LX News shows that 51 percent of Floridian Hispanics would vote for DeSantis, while 44 percent support Crist. Only 4 percent remain undecided, with another 1 percent opting to support someone else in the race.

The poll’s findings further indicate that DeSantis will likely win re-election comfortably this year. By contrast, exit polling from the 2018 gubernatorial election showed DeSantis losing the Hispanic vote by 10 points to his Democratic rival in that election, former Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum.

Along more specific lines, DeSantis leads Crist by 50 points among Cuban voters, a significant voter bloc in Florida, with 72 percent to Crist’s 22 percent; Crist, by contrast, leads by a smaller margin among Puerto Ricans, with 59 percent to DeSantis’ 37 percent.

The two candidates are tied among female voters, at 48 percent each, and among voters aged 49 and younger, at 47 percent each. DeSantis leads among Floridians who were born in America, with 48 percent to Crist’s 47 percent, while maintaining a much more commanding lead among Floridians who were not born in America, with 56 percent to Crist’s 40 percent.

https://www.frontpagemag.com/will-we-the-people-step-up/

Ever since ancient Athens, every election in states where all citizens have the right to vote is a referendum on the question whether or not the masses have the capacity to govern themselves. Indeed, as one historian argued, political philosophy was invented 2400 years ago to demonstrate that the answer is “no.” Ordinary people without wealth, education, or “the splendor in the blood,” as Pindar called nobility, by nature are incapable of managing the state, which requires, to paraphrase Woodrow Wilson, the “hundred who are wise” to rule over the “thousands who are foolish.”

The upcoming midterm elections will similarly be a test of this ancient question, perhaps the most consequential since World War II. For at stake may be the survival of our Constitutional order and its protection of our unalienable rights and political freedom, which have been under assault for a century now.

The stakes of this election have been raised by the excesses of the wide leftward swing of the Democrats away from the Constitution’s divided powers, jeopardizing the autonomy of civil society, individual rights, fiscal sanity, and reality itself. Indeed, so egregious and just plain lunatic are some of the policies and ideas promoted by the Dems, that their party should not just lose control of Congress, but see its leftward drift definitively repudiated.

Most of us can catalogue the manifest failures of this administration and Congress. Trillions of dollars in fiat money––like this summer’s $740 billion so-called Inflation Reduction Act, part of the $4 trillion Biden has blown in just two years––are the accelerant of the current inflation bonfire, the worst in 40 years.

This damage, moreover, is the result of transparently stupid policies. One key indicator of economic health is cheap energy, but it has skyrocketed in large part because of the suicidal war against domestic oil and natural gas production that just two years ago had made the U.S. a net exporter of energy.

https://www.frontpagemag.com/covering-for-fetterman-may-cost-media-a-senate-seat/

The media could have pushed for the truth after Lt. Gov Fetterman’s stroke, instead, it continued to favor the woke Frankenstein because he had all the left views.

As the campaign continued, it doubled down on the cover-ups because the media was now stuck with a candidate that it was beginning to realize was broken, but was now the standard bearer of its party.

Up until the debate, the cover-up continued. Anyone in the media who insisted on asking questions about Fetterman’s functionality was threatened and smeared.

Then the debate arrived and Fetterman’s performance made it clear that there was something wrong there.

Now the media has defaulted to praising his “courage” for running and attacking anyone who points out the obvious as “ableist”.

This follows the familiar media cover-up pattern.

It’s absolutely not true
Maybe it’s a little true, but conservatives are blowing it out of proportion
It’s absolutely true and we should all embrace it

Much like drag queens in schools and the Taliban overruning Afghanistan, we’re in phase 3 now. Fetterman is clearly disabled, but that means he’s just like FDR and we should admire him. Maybe that position might have been respectable if it had been the default one all along.

The media could have pushed for the truth after Lt. Gov Fetterman’s stroke, instead, it continued to favor the woke Frankenstein because he had all the left views.

As the campaign continued, it doubled down on the cover-ups because the media was now stuck with a candidate that it was beginning to realize was broken, but was now the standard bearer of its party.

Up until the debate, the cover-up continued. Anyone in the media who insisted on asking questions about Fetterman’s functionality was threatened and smeared.

Then the debate arrived and Fetterman’s performance made it clear that there was something wrong there.

Now the media has defaulted to praising his “courage” for running and attacking anyone who points out the obvious as “ableist”.

This follows the familiar media cover-up pattern.

It’s absolutely not true
Maybe it’s a little true, but conservatives are blowing it out of proportion
It’s absolutely true and we should all embrace it

Much like drag queens in schools and the Taliban overruning Afghanistan, we’re in phase 3 now.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/house-midterms-past-the-point-of-no-return

The midterm elections are now two weeks away. Some political commentators have an interest in portraying them as one big, suspenseful, down-to-the-wire contest. Maybe some of those commentators are partisan. Maybe some just think it’s good for business. But the fact is, at this point, the midterm results, as far as the House of Representatives is concerned, are pretty much set in stone. Republicans are going to win. Democrats are going to lose. The Senate is moving in that direction, too. It might already be there.

“What’s about to happen is very obvious,” said one Republican deeply involved in midterm races. “Voters think the economy sucks. Voters think Joe Biden sucks. Therefore, voters think Democrats suck. End of discussion.”

Most people wouldn’t put it quite so bluntly. Or maybe they would. In any event, here is a quick, step-by-step synopsis of how things came to this point over the last 18 months:

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1) One party, the Democratic Party, controls the House, the Senate, and the White House.

2) The party’s margins of control in both the House and the Senate are so thin that even a narrow midterm loss would result in loss of the majority.

3) The opposition party has always been in a strong position to win because unpopular presidents like Biden, with an approval rating of 42.6% in the RealClearPolitics average of polls, always lose seats in the midterm elections.

4) Economic events, especially inflation, have unfolded in a way that favors the opposition party.

1. A lot of people are asking me for my predictions. I expect to make final forecasts right before election day. However, to save time and not have to respond to lots of individual emails, an update is provided below. After the election, I will discuss the results and the implications for 2024 at the Restoration Weekend conference of the David Horowitz Freedom Center, in Phoenix, November 10-13.  There are many substantive speakers at this event on a wide variety of topics.  Information is provided below. At the 2018 event I was on a panel discussing the 2018 results right after a talk by Victor Davis Hanson. So, in a sense, thinking of a rock concert, Hanson “opened” for me.  

https://restorationweekend.org

2. Certain things seem pretty clear, and other things are very unsettled.  Republicans seem to have momentum, both in House, and Senate races. If you don’t believe me, look at Nate Silver’s models and forecasts at fivethirtyeight.com. Nate Silver’s model predicts the chances of a GOP takeover of the House are 80%. Two weeks ago, the GOP chances for control were 68%.  Most forecasts (RCP, Larry Sabato, Cook Political Report, 538) project   final House numbers for the GOP in a range of 230 to 240. Redistricting, which was played to the hilt in many states by both parties to the extent they could, has limited the number of competitive races. Ohio and Illinois are probably the two states with the most partisan redistricting.  House races may produce some strange results this year. The Democrats could win and hold Alaska’s only House seat. A Republican could win a House seat in Rhode Island. 

For the Senate, Silver has GOP chances are 45%, and were 29% two weeks ago. In other words, the GOP looks likely to win the House, and the Senate control is very much a tossup. Silver’s model incorporates among other factors, polling results (higher weights to more recent polls, and those with greater historic accuracy), as well as state or district voting history. 

At the moment, many Senate races are in play. Democrat-held seats which could shift include Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Washington State and Colorado are uphill for Republicans, but very good candidates have made these races competitive.  GOP held seats in play include Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and maybe Utah and Iowa. One big difference between the parties is that vulnerable Democrats are all incumbents. Three of the four most vulnerable Republican held seats are open- Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina. In most cycles, incumbency is a big advantage, especially in fundraising. Challengers are sometimes not picked until the late summer and are underfunded for the general election. 

On the other hand, one factor working for Republicans in some of the closest Senate races are likely big wins for GOP governors- Ohio, Georgia and New Hampshire in particular, as well as Iowa, and a stronger than expected  GOP candidate for Governor in Arizona. In Pennsylvania, the Democratic governor candidate seems well ahead, and is helping John Fetterman try to reach the finish line.

Incumbency may be a mixed blessing this year. Voters seem by and large miserable and unhappy (look at right direction, wrong direction surveys). Inflation and interest rates are high. Home values and stock market values have sharply dropped. We have a national crime wave, focused on cities where Democrats are in complete control, and politicians seem unable or unwilling to address the problem. Personal insecurity is a big deal. New York State has a close governor’s race, largely as a result of crime numbers. Bail reform, stifling how police can behave, greatly reduced police staffing, prosecutors more concerned with keeping criminals out of jail, than protecting their victims, are all making voters very sour on this issue. Covid lockdowns were often unnecessary and caused great economic damage, and very poor educational results with kids schooled via zoom. The incredible number of illegals allowed in the country at our wide open southern border suggests national lawlessness, and almost a complete abdication of responsibility by the federal government. 

https://issuesinsights.com/2022/10/24/independents-hold-key-to-2022-gop-red-wave-ii-tipp-poll/

Despite both major parties claiming they have an advantage, the race for control of Congress appears to be a dead heat, the most recent I&I/TIPP data show. But there’s a big potential surprise element that could tilt the balance sharply: Nearly one out of every seven registered voters, or 15%, are “not sure” whom they’ll vote for.

The online poll of 1,158 voters across the country was taken from October 5-7, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 points.

The poll asked those responding: “What is your preference for the outcome of this November’s congressional elections?”

Answers showed the sharp division among the electorate, with 42% saying they would prefer “a Congress controlled by Republicans,” and 43% saying they preferred “a Congress controlled by Democrats.” The results are within the poll’s margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/10/letsvotebrandon_williams_an_insurgent_republican_in_a_dead_heat_race_for_congress_in_upstate_new_york.html

While Governor Kathy Hochul’s lead against Rep. Lee Zeldin seems to be tightening, there are other New York State races to watch.

City and State New York magazine identified six congressional races to watch, singling out one as “one of the most competitive in the country” — NY-22: Francis Conole (D) v. Brandon Williams (R).

Let’s take a look at how Williams’s #LetsVoteBrandon campaign started.

John Katko, the Republican representative for New York’s 24th Congressional District, announced he was scurrying out of Washington forever after casting his Trump Impeachment vote in 2021.  (To which President Trump commented, “Great news, another one bites the dust.  Katko, from Upstate New York, is gone!”)

Indeed, there was no love lost between Katko and his constituents, who continually voted for him as the lesser of two evils, then loudly lambasted him for “continually backing Democratic legislation” that went against everything they believed in. 

Then came the redistricting mess.  Katko was originally elected to New York’s 24th Congressional District, much of which is now the new, open 22nd district.

Enter Brandon Williams, a Navy veteran, husband, father and truffle farmer from Cayuga county.  “I just can’t sit by and see what’s happening to our country.  I think people are starting to wake up and say ‘Wow, we may be in trouble.’”  That’s what Williams told a local paper as he entered the race to represent the NY-22 back in February.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2022/10/21/wave-watch-is-the-bottom-falling-out-for-democrats-n2614836

I’m not prepared to make declarative statements about how November 8th is going to go, and you know what they say about counting chickens.  But it’s increasingly looking like a red wave is cresting.  One of the questions I’ve been pondering for the last few months is whether 2022 will look more like 2018 (when the opposition party had a good night in the House, but underperformed in the Senate, due to various dynamics) or 2014 (when Republicans appeared to be underperforming through much of the cycle before a decisive break at the tail end made it political bloodbath).  Atmospheric clues and data breadcrumbs suggest that the latter historical analogue may end up looking more apt when the votes are counted in a few weeks.  Consider this:

Real Clear Politics’ Sean Trende calls this “a nice distillation of the ‘it is 2014 again’ theory of 2022.”  It’s far from guaranteed, but it’s compelling.  And if this is the Biden baseline, that’s dire territory for his party: 

The hallmarks of a substantial wave are cropping up everywhere.  Plausibly competitive races are looking…well, not: