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FOREIGN POLICY

Trump didn’t sell out the Kurds by pulling out of Syria Kenneth R. Timmerman

https://nypost.com/2019/10/19/trump-didnt-sell-out-the-kurds-by-pulling-out-of-syria/

“The Kurds are paying a heavy price in this battle — not because of a US betrayal — but because they remain stateless and thus powerless. By targeting Erdogan financially, legally and undermining his legitimacy, President Trump has done more to help the Kurds than his critics with their crocodile tears. And for now, he is winning.”

Critics blasted Trump for allowing Turkey to invade Kurdish-ruled northern Syria, but Kurdish fighters are more realistic about US military support.

The national media blasted President Trump’s withdrawal of 50 US military advisors from the Syrian border with Turkey as a “sellout,” a “betrayal” and a “huge strategic blunder.”

Let’s be clear: None of them truly care about the Kurds. Otherwise, they would have been sending correspondents and camera crews to Rojava, as the Kurds call northern Syria, on a regular basis.

Let’s also be clear about the goals of Turkish president Tayyip Recep Erdogan. While he attempted to stylize his military invasion of Rojava as a counterterrorism operation, few international observers bought into it. Why? Because there have been no terror attacks against Turkey from Syrian territory since the Syrian Kurds established their self-governing entity in 2012. None.

Erdogan is not even remotely interested in fighting ISIS, or in taking responsibility for the estimated 12,000 ISIS fighters currently in Kurdish custody at the al-Hol refugee camp. What actually happens to those ISIS prisoners, and the fate of Christian and Yazidi minorities, will be key measures of the agreement hammered out by Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo with Erdogan on Thursday.

The humanitarian disaster that unfolded this past week helped to paint Erdogan as notorious a mass murderer as Saddam Hussein. And it was to Erdogan’s legacy that the president appealed in his private, and now public, letter to the Turkish president as the crisis unfolded.

Erdogan’s real goal with this invasion was to smash Kurdish self-government, and those 50 US advisors were the last thing in his way.

Juliana Taimoorazy- A Sober Assessment on Trump and Syria

https://stream.org/what-trump-has-wrought-in-syria/

https://www.iraqichristianrelief.org/

Juliana Taimoorazy is a fellow of The Philos Project, and the Founder of the Iraqi Christian Relief Council. She started the nonprofit organization to help foster awareness about the plight of the Iraqi Christians, and to raise funds to deliver food and medicine to Iraq.

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I’m guardedly optimistic that President Trump’s withdrawal and this agreement might result in stability. And that this will not be a green light for Islamist ethnic cleansing. The Syrian Democratic Forces, however, see this as their forced surrender. They have announced that they won’t abandon their positions to Turkey. They will simply cease fighting over the small areas Turkey has already conquered. But they will hold the rest of the land they have come to possess. They count on help from the legal government of Syria and its Russian allies. That would mean folding the SDF into the regular Syrian Arab Army, and granting the region Russian air protection.

 Turkey doesn’t want to have dogfights with Russian planes. Or to face the heavy equipment Assad’s army commands. Therefore, its land-grab in Syria will prove limited. Its plans to expel Kurds will probably fail. Turkish President Erdogan has alienated world opinion by his actions and threats. (For instance, he warned he might shove 3.6 million Syrian migrants into Europe.) He can’t count on NATO support if war flares up with Russia. Erdogan has asked Russia’s Vladimir Putin for a face to face summit. I don’t expect Putin to cave to Erdogan’s demands for a chunk of Syrian territory. Although there has been an agreement reached by the U.S. and Turkey, the fighting on the ground continues.

So I think the U.S. Congress should move ahead with its sanctions bill targeting Turkey. President Trump should sign it. Aggressors should pay a price when they create 100,000 refugees with wanton attacks on neighboring countries. I have followed the abusive and aggressive actions of Kurdish nationalists in Iraq and Syria toward Assyrians, Chaldeans and Syriacs. So I don’t consider the Kurds a long-term safe option for Syrian Christians either. The legal government of Syria must regain some control of that region. It must include Syrian Christians and the Kurdish Sunni Muslims in negotiation and political talks. Otherwise keeping the peace won’t be worthwhile for them.

China’s Maritime Strategic Challenge By Douglas J. Feith & Admiral Gary Roughead

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/10/china-maritime-threat-us-allies-must-work-together-to-meet-challenge/

America and its allies must cooperate to counter the military-commercial threat.

C hina is working to end U.S. military predominance in Asia, and likely beyond. This forces U.S. officials to rethink how military security relates to trade and investment. U.S. officials are urging friends around the world to join the reexamination.

How to regulate its business and other relations with China is the greatest strategic challenge facing the United States. The answer is not to stop all trade with China; that is neither necessary nor practical. But obliviousness is not the answer, either. It would be reckless to ignore the role of commercial transactions in China’s national-security strategy.

The challenge has become reasonably clear only in the past half-dozen years or so. U.S. officials are just beginning to develop the necessary new laws and policies and to discuss — and sometimes quarrel — with allies about how to counter Chinese ambitions regarding 5G Internet infrastructure, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, advanced manufacturing technology, cyber operations, influence over critical facilities (e.g. seaports), and other militarily sensitive matters.

Chinese president Xi Jinping has moved China into a new era. He declares that China stands “tall and firm” and should now “take centre stage in the world.” China is asserting itself, claiming, for example, sovereignty over vast areas in the South China Sea long widely recognized as international waters. It presses those claims against the Philippines, Japan, Vietnam, and other neighbors. It threatens them, punishing some by attacking their fishermen and sinking their boats. The way Chinese leaders abuse their neighbors is of a piece with the anti-democratic brutality of their rule in China.

China aspires to become a maritime great power and is well on its way. Having created a formidable regional navy, President Xi is building the capability for what Chinese doctrine calls “open seas protection.” Through prolific naval shipbuilding; deployment of a fleet of aircraft carriers, amphibious ships, surface vessels, and submarines; development of missiles; conduct of long-range missions; and establishment of numerous facilities abroad that can facilitate blue-water naval operations, China shows its determination to operate a global maritime force. In August 2017, it inaugurated its first overseas military base in Djibouti, at the chokepoint between, on the one side, the Indian Ocean, and on the other, the Red Sea, Suez Canal, and Mediterranean.

President Xi’s maritime strategy extends beyond strictly military vessels. China operates one of the world’s largest commercial shipping fleets and the largest distant-waters fishing fleet. It is a world leader in commercial shipbuilding. If the U.S. naval presence in strategic locations wanes further and China maintains its trajectory, China will in time enjoy a sea-control advantage.

Trump Used the Options He Had in Syria By Jim Talent

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/10/trump-used-the-options-he-had-in-syria/

There was no reason to leave a few Special Forces in the middle of an armed conflict when, yes, Erdogan might be willing to risk war with the U.S.

There has been a great deal of outrage expressed over the fact that the United States did not prevent Turkey from initiating the military operation to create a “buffer zone” in northern Syria. The major objection seems to be that in withdrawing the 100 or so American Special Operations forces who had been stationed in the area, the United States was giving permission for the operation and abandoning the Kurds who have helped us in the fight against ISIS.

I don’t see the criticism; in fact, far from abandoning the Kurds, the United States has consistently opposed the Turkish buffer-zone operation and used every means to prevent it that were consistent with America’s overriding national interests in the region.

The Kurds are tough fighters and were indispensable in supplying the ground component against ISIS. They had their own reasons for doing it, of course. Apart from not wanting to become victims of ISIS themselves, the Kurds are a stateless people and they have been trying to carve out a self-governing enclave for themselves in Syria or Iraq or Turkey or wherever they can get it. The success of the war against ISIS, and the prominent role of the Kurds in the effort, raised at least the prospect of such an enclave in northern Syria.

The United States does not support Kurdish separatism in Syria, but the Trump administration did try for months to get Turkey to agree to joint patrols and shared control in northern Syria; the purpose was to prevent further conflict and instability in the region, enable a continued focus on the fight against ISIS, and ensure effective security over captured ISIS soldiers. But it would have been at least a small step toward Kurdish autonomy.

Recep Erdogan was impatient, to say the least, with the American negotiating position. Erdogan is no fool, and he was aware that the Kurds were developing a significant measure of de facto control in northern Syria. Turkey and the Kurds have a long and checkered history, and Erdogan is as opposed to Kurdish separatism and statehood as the Kurds are in favor of it.

Congress Just Begging for Another Quagmire War . By Frank Miele

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/10/18/congress_just_begging_for_another_quagmire_war_141524.html

I’ve been hesitant to comment on the U.S. troop withdrawal from northern Syria until now because I was conflicted.

Like many Americans, I support President Trump’s stated goal of extricating us from foreign entanglements as much as possible, and especially removing ground forces from harm’s way when they have no definable mission other than waiting to see if anyone shoots at them.

On the other hand, I have been sympathetic to the Kurds, who have helped us to restore peace in Iraq and to defeat ISIS in Syria. Moreover, I am no fan of Turkey and its Islamist autocrat, Recep Erdogan.

So when Erdogan announced his intention to invade northern Syria in order to establish a zone to which Syrian refugees could be repatriated, my first instinct was “Hell, no.”

But wait a minute. Turkey is a NATO member. Were we prepared to go to war with an ally to defend this strip of land held by the Kurds? Even if the Turks had an ulterior motive of seeking to punish their traditional enemy, the Kurds, were we willing to sacrifice American lives to take sides in that conflict?

Also, how exactly do we distinguish between the U.S. invading Syria several years earlier for our “national interest” and what the Turks are doing now for their own perceived “national interest”?

Certainly, we do not always go to war to protect people from invasion. As an example, we did not go to war with Israel when it invaded Lebanon in 1982. Many more such examples could be provided.

But then there are the Kurds…

We don’t want them to become the victims of genocide the way the Armenians were at the hands of the Turks in the last century, but what kind of commitment can Americans make to police Syria into the foreseeable future? Are we supposed to keep our soldiers at risk forever to prevent war between enemies who have irreconcilable differences?

National Security Doesn’t Care About Your Feelings We are in the Middle East for one reason: To ensure that terrorist groups based there do not plan and effect mass-casualty attacks here in America. Going to war with NATO ally Turkey is not part of the plan. Sebastian Gorka

https://amgreatness.com/2019/10/16/national-security-doesnt-care-about-your-feelings/

Ben Shapiro has become famous for the line: “Facts don’t care about your feelings!” Neither does strategy. And the last week should serve as a lesson in how to do strategy properly, and how to serve the national interest: clinically and without emotion.

Since President Trump made his decision to relocate 50 U.S. troops from Northern Syria, who were in the way of incoming Turkish forces, the commander-in-chief has been relentlessly attacked by the Left, their accomplices in the press, and the forever war neoconservatives and RINOs on the Right. After 18 years of war, thousands of Americans dead, and trillions of taxpayer dollars wasted, the president is being pilloried for not wanting to go to war with Turkey, a NATO ally with the largest Army in Europe.

Just let that sink in. After a generation of war, the “elite” is attacking President Trump for not getting us into another war.

Why are we told we should go to war again? Because the Kurds are suffering. Are the Kurds members of NATO? Are they our formal allies in any way? Are they even members of the same Judeo-Christian civilization to which we belong? The answers are no, no, and most definitely no.

Is America Becoming Sinicized? By Victor Davis Hanson

https://pjmedia.com/victordavishanson/is-america-becoming-sinicized/

“All these reasons and more explain why there wasn’t a single major Western politician who warned the world of a frightening, Chinese-dominated future — one in which the West turned into China rather than China into the West. The single figure who finally issued such a warning, brash Donald Trump — without prior military or political experience — was as loudly and publicly damned as he was privately and quietly admired for doing so.”

A little over 40 years ago, Chinese Communist strongman and reformer Deng Xiaoping began 15 years of sweeping economic reforms. They were designed to end the disastrous, even murderous planned economy of Mao Zedong, who died in 1976.

The results of Deng’s revolution astonished the world. In four decades, China went from a backward basket case to the second-largest economy on the planet. It lifted hundreds of millions of Chinese into the global middle class.

Deng’s revolution came at a cost of terrible environmental damage, the rampant destruction of local communities and continued political repression. A more efficient economy empowered dictatorship.

Abroad, China systematically violated every tenet of international trade and commerce. It stole copyrights and patents. It ran up huge trade surpluses. It dumped products at below the cost of production to hook international customers. It threatened critics with boycotts, divestments and expulsions. It manipulated its currency. It demanded technology transfers from companies doing business in China. It created a vast espionage network in Western countries to steal technology. And it increasingly bullied and threatened its Asian neighbors.

Such criminality abroad and such repression at home was contextualized and mostly excused by Western nations.

U.S. foreign policy toward China seemed to be based on the belief that the more China modernized and the more affluent its citizens became, the more inevitable Chinese political freedom would be.

Supposedly a free-market China would drop its communist past to become a Westernized democracy such as Japan, South Korea or Taiwan. Once China fully joined the family of successful, law-abiding nations, it would empower Western freedoms and help create a stable international order.

The Origins of New US-Turkish Relations By George Friedman

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-origins-of-new-us-turkish-relations/

For several years, there has been a significant shift underway in U.S. strategy toward the Middle East, where Washington has consistently sought to avoid combat. The United States is now compelled to seek accommodation with Turkey, a regional power in its own right, based on terms that are geopolitically necessary for both. Their relationship has been turbulent, and while it may continue to be so for a while, it will decline. Their accommodation has nothing to do with mutual affection but rather with mutual necessity. The Turkish incursion into Syria and the U.S. response are part of this adjustment, one that has global origins and regional consequences.

Similarly, the U.S. decision to step aside as Turkey undertook an incursion in northeastern Syria has a geopolitical and strategic origin. The strategic origin is a clash between elements of the Defense Department and the president. The defense community has been shaped by a war that has been underway since 2001. During what is called the Long War, the U.S. has created an alliance structure of various national and subnational groups. Yet the region is still on uneven footing. The Iranians have extended a sphere of influence westward. Iraq is in chaos. The Yemeni civil war still rages, and the original Syrian war has ended, in a very Middle Eastern fashion, indecisively.

A generation of military and defense thinkers have matured fighting wars in the Middle East. The Long War has been their career. Several generations spent their careers expecting Soviet tanks to surge into the Fulda Gap. Cold Warriors believed a world without the Cold War was unthinkable. The same can be said for those shaped by Middle Eastern wars. For the Cold War generation, the NATO alliance was the foundation of their thinking. So too for the Sandbox generation, those whose careers were spent rotating into Iraq or Afghanistan or some other place, the alliances formed and the enemies fought seemed eternal. The idea that the world had moved on, and that Fulda and NATO were less important, was emotionally inconceivable. Any shift in focus and alliance structure was seen as a betrayal.

History Before and After America Shoshana Bryen

To All: 
I am deeply sympathetic to Kurdish people and their aspirations. At the same time, US foreign policy has to take account of regional history that has never included us. How we do that remains to be seen. Our efforts in Iraq, Libya and Egypt were not successful – to say the least. S.B.

Kurdish forces, facing a well-armed and aggressive Turkey, appear to have turned to the Syrian government — meaning its sponsors in Iran and Russia — for rescue. It makes sense in historical terms, although it is likely to be bloody in current ones. Historical, in this case, means before the U.S. military presence in the northern part of the country.

The Syrian government is a minority Alawite (heterodox Shiite) one that had maintained control by allying with other minority groups in the country — such as Kurds and Christians — and with the Shiite rulers of Iran in order to keep a boot on the neck of the majority Sunni population. The war criminal Bashar al-Assad was simply following in his war criminal father’s footsteps —  in 1982, Hafez al-Assad massacred tens of thousands of Sunnis in the town of Hama, ensuring general quiet until 2011. Young Bashar, being a less efficient criminal, has killed more than half a million people (the U.N. stopped counting in 2016) and creating what the U.N. estimated in 2018 to be more than 13 million displaced people — more than six million internally plus more than three million in Turkey and one million more in Lebanon.

Most of them are Sunni. Deliberately.

Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, declared two goals in the current operation: To remove what he considers a threat from a terrorist organization, the PKK (set this aside for a moment), and to open the way to resettle more than one million Syrian refugees back in Syria. The refugees have become a political and economic liability for Turkey’s government.

Kurdish, Syrian, and Turkish Ironies By Victor Davis Hanson *****

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/10/kurdish-syrian-turkish-ironies/

Critics now upset about abandoning our Kurdish friends demanded abject withdrawals — and the abandonment of friends — in Afghanistan and Iraq.

O utrage met Donald Trump’s supposedly rash decision to pull back U.S. troops from possible confrontational zones between our Kurdish friends in Syria and Recep Erdogan’s expeditionary forces.

Turkey claims that it will punish the Syrian Kurds for a variety of supposed provocations, including aiding and abetting Kurdish terrorist separatists inside Turkey. But what they say they can so easily do and what they really can do inside Syria are, of course, two different things.

A Noble People
Most Americans in general favor the Kurds and oppose the Turks. Aside from Israel, Kurds are about the only American allies in the Middle East who predictably fight alongside our troops against Islamists, theocrats, and Baathists. They admire Americans, and for the most part they do not indulge in the normal anti-American histrionics. They despise ISIS as much we do and are on the front lines combatting ISIS atrocities.

Skeptics might suggest that they do so mostly for self-interested reasons. But all people do that. And what is unusual about the Kurds of Iraq and Syria is the number of times they have risked their lives in battle alongside our own soldiers. For that alone, they deserve special American dispensations and should not be left to the vagaries of Turkish or Russian air power or any combined Turkish, Syrian, Islamist, or Iranian cynical alliance.

Like the Poles, the Armenians, the Greeks, and the Israelis, the Kurds are an honorable, ancient, and brave people who drew history’s unfortunate lot of living in a dangerous geography between much larger and aggressive nations. And, to be frank, all these endangered peoples at some point in their histories, ancient and modern or both, seem to have fought against Turkish forces, been targeted by them, or threatened by Ankara.