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FOREIGN POLICY

President Trump, Beware of the Syrian Volcano Yoram Ettinger

The unpredictable eruption of the Syrian volcano – which could emit molten lava well beyond Syria and the Middle East – sheds light on the following 1,400-year-old features of the radical/fundamentalist segment of the complicated, brutal and frustrating inter Arab/Moslem reality, which are currently menacing every pro-US Arab regime:

Trump to Hamas: If Hostages Aren’t Released, ‘There Will Be ALL HELL TO PAY’ There’s a new sheriff in town. Hugh Fitzgerald

https://www.frontpagemag.com/trump-to-hamas-if-hostages-arent-released-there-will-be-all-hell-to-pay/

The President-elect has sent his message urbi et orbi: Hamas must free all the hostages it holds before Trump takes office on January 20, or THERE WILL BE HELL TO PAY. More on his warning can be found here: “Trump warns ‘all hell to pay’ if Gaza hostages not released by Inauguration Day,” by Hannah Sarisohn, Jerusalem Post, December 2, 2024:

President-elect Donald Trump took to his platform Truth Social on Monday afternoon following the IDF’s confirmation that Hamas killed American-Israeli Omer Neutra on October 7 and has held his body hostage since.

Trump did not mention Neutra by name but wrote that “everybody is talking about the hostages who are being held so violently, inhumanely, and against the will of the entire World, in the Middle East – But it’s all talk and no action!”

Trump continued, saying, “Please let this TRUTH serve to represent that if the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity.”

Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the “long and storied History of the United States of America,” Trump wrote.

“RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW!” he said.

Warning: No Deal Whatsoever with Iran’s Mullahs by Majid Rafizadeh

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21164/no-deal-with-iran-mullahs

The Iranian regime’s sudden willingness to negotiate following Trump’s reelection is nothing more than a tactical maneuver. It seeks to buy time, stave off tough sanctions, and delay decisive action while advancing its nuclear program, while waiting out Trump.
This is a familiar strategy, designed to outlast the Trump administration and neutralize any efforts to hold the regime accountable. Such deceptive overtures must be recognized for what they are — a fake truce to secure the Islamic Republic’s survival and expansion.
The West must stop deluding itself into believing that any deal with such a country can succeed.
The only effective approach is one of unwavering sanctions, relentless pressure, maintaining a military option and supporting the efforts of most of the Iranian people, who are desperate for a new form of government.

The possibility of negotiating a deal with Iran has resurfaced. Reports suggest that the Islamic Republic’s leaders are expressing a willingness to engage with the incoming US administration after Donald J. Trump assumes office.

Reaching a deal, however, with a regime actively waging proxy wars against Israel, most of the Persian Gulf States and the United States — and that is arming Russia in its war on Ukraine — would be a monumental error.

Such an agreement would not only bolster the regime financially, but also grant it global legitimacy. That renewed strength would only once again fuel Iran’s aggression, further destabilize the region, and embolden its revolutionary ambitions. Negotiating with a regime steeped in terror would simply serve to expand its reach and strengthen its resolve.

History provides a clear warning against such actions. In 2015, President Barack Obama’s nuclear deal, which granted Iran the opportunity to build as many nuclear weapons as it is able to, marked the beginning of a dangerous trajectory.

‘What is it that the Biden Administration is Threatening Israel With?’ Threats grave enough that “Netanyahu is taking them very seriously.” by Robert Spencer

https://www.frontpagemag.com/what-is-it-that-the-biden-administration-is-threatening-israel-with/

A ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon appeared imminent on Tuesday afternoon. While numerous mainstream analysts, as clueless as ever, hailed it as the first step toward reducing tensions and establishing a lasting peace in the region, others were not so sanguine.

For over a year now and against enormous international pressure, Israel has been vowing to fight on until Hamas and Hezbollah were completely destroyed. Now it is apparently about to agree to a ceasefire that could allow Hezbollah to survive and murder more Israeli civilians on another day. What is going on? Two words, as Joe Biden would say, and those words are the man’s name himself: Old Joe Biden.

Former Israel Defense Forces intelligence officer Sarit Zahavi explained what was at stake: “But the gap lies with the question of whether Hezbollah will be able to recover or not. After what happened on October 7th, Israelis are not willing to enable Hezbollah to recover. This is not going to happen anymore. We are not going to enable that. While I am speaking to you, there are alerts proving that Hezbollah still has the capabilities to launch rockets and missiles against Israel. We cannot rely on just promises. We need to make sure that Hezbollah is not capable of threatening us and our families over here in the north.” Yet the ceasefire, at least as it is being reported, would allow Hezbollah to do just that.

CBS News reported Tuesday that “under the deal, a full and permanent ceasefire would be implemented immediately. There will be 60 days permitted for the full withdrawal of Israeli forces — a gradual withdrawal to allow the Lebanese forces to mobilize and move in to secure the area, but the trigger time is immediate, set to take effect later Tuesday.

Russia and Ukraine Likely to Ignore Biden’s Attempts to Sabotage Trump’s Ukraine Peace Effort Given the havoc that Biden’s post-election Ukraine policy decisions have caused, Donald Trump cannot return to the Oval Office fast enough. Fred Fleitz

https://amgreatness.com/2024/11/22/russia-and-ukraine-likely-to-ignore-bidens-attempts-to-sabotage-trumps-ukraine-peace-effort/

In December 1992, after the security and humanitarian situations in Somalia significantly deteriorated, the George H.W. Bush administration decided to deploy U.S. troops as part of a UN-sanctioned peace enforcement mission. Because President Bush had just lost the 1992 presidential election and would be leaving this crisis to his successor, Bill Clinton, Bush consulted with President-elect Clinton and obtained his agreement before making this major foreign policy decision.

This instance of post-election foreign policy collaboration by incoming and outgoing presidents represented the U.S. tradition of the peaceful transfer of power—and an outgoing president respecting the will of the American people who just elected a new president. Unfortunately, President Biden has chosen to ignore these crucial traditions concerning the war in Ukraine and instead appears determined to sabotage the policies of his successor.

President-elect Donald Trump has made it clear that one of his top national security priorities is swiftly ending the war in Ukraine. Trump is determined to change U.S. policy on the war by ending it instead of supporting a long war of attrition that Ukraine is sure to lose. Under the peaceful transfer of power tradition, President Biden should cooperate with the policy of his successor during his final days in office.

Unfortunately, Biden has taken a defiant approach to Trump’s new policy.

Biden decided last weekend to allow Ukraine to attack targets in Russia with the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACM). Ukraine had been asking for permission to fire these weapons at targets deep inside Russia for almost a year, but Biden refused—until after the election—because he worried this would dangerously escalate the war.

Seriously, Is Biden Trying To Start WWIII To Get Even With Trump?

https://issuesinsights.com/2024/11/22/seriously-is-biden-trying-to-start-wwiii-to-get-even-with-trump/

A mentally-challenged President Joe Biden turned 82 years old this week, a much-diminished man from his hey-day as a Democratic Party Senate stalwart in the last century. But one part of his character is undimmed by the passage of the years: His legendary spite and gleeful willingness to betray his political foes.

Knowing this, is he now about to set off a third world war to settle an election score with newly re-elected President Donald Trump, who Biden still calls an “existential threat” to America?

We’re talking of course of Biden’s inexplicably dangerous decision to encourage Ukraine to use long-range U.S. missiles against Russian territory, which has already prompted a response from Russia in the form of a missile barrage against Ukraine.

Biden’s also approving antipersonnel mines for use against Russian forces, along with sending yet another $237 million in military aid and forgiving $5 billion in loans.

It makes no sense at all, unless you see it as a way of showing he still has the reins of government firmly in hand, and wants to hand newly re-elected President Donald Trump a nasty, dangerous mess as he takes the oath of office on January 20, 2025.

Can Trump End Ukraine’s ‘Endless War?’ How he could pull that unlikely deal off. Victor Davis Hanson

https://www.frontpagemag.com/can-trump-end-ukraines-endless-war/

Trump was elected in part on promises to avoid “endless wars” of the sort that cost American blood and treasure in Afghanistan and Iraq but without resulting in strategic advantage or civilized calm.

Yet as a Jacksonian, Trump also restored American deterrence through punitive strikes against ISIS and terrorist thugs like Baghdadi and Soleimani—without being bogged down in costly follow-ups. During the last four administrations, Putin stayed within his borders only during the Trump four years.

But upon entering office, Trump will likely still be faced with something far more challenging as he confronts what has become the greatest European killing field since World War II—the cauldron on the Ukrainian border that has likely already cost 1-1.5 million combined dead, wounded, and missing Ukrainian and Russian soldiers and civilians.

There is no end in sight after three years of escalating violence. But there are increasing worries that strategically logical and morally defensible—but geopolitically dangerous—Ukrainian strikes on the Russian interior will nonetheless escalate and lead to a wider war among the world’s nuclear powers.

Many on the right wish for Trump to immediately cut off all aid to Ukraine for what they feel is an unwinnable war, even if that abrupt cessation would end any leverage with which to force Putin to negotiate.

They claim the war was instigated by a globalist left, serving as a proxy conflict waged to ruin Russia at the cost of Ukrainian soldiers. They see it orchestrated by a now non-democratic Ukrainian government, lacking elections, a free press, or opposition parties, led by an ungracious and corrupt Zelensky cadre that has allied with the American left in an election year.

In contrast, many on the left see Putin’s invasion and the right’s weariness with the costs of the conflict as the long-awaited global proof of the Trump-Russian “collusion” unicorn.

Biden Administration Sent Over $2,000,000,000 to ‘Palestinians’ Since Oct. 7 Daniel Greenfield

https://jihadwatch.org/2024/11/biden-administration-sent-over-2000000000-to-palestinians-since-oct-7?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=biden-administration-sent-over-2000000000-to-palestinians-since-oct-7

Kill over 1,000 people in one of the worst Islamic terrorist attacks in modern history and what do you get?

Over $2 billion and counting. Or around $2 million for every person they murdered on Oct 7.

USAID, which has been repeatedly accused of complicity in funding Islamic terrorism around the world just bragged that it handed out another $230 million while boasting of its total of $2.1 billion in ‘aid’ since Oct 7.

The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) is providing $230 million in additional funding to support economic recovery and development programs in the West Bank and Gaza. This significant investment highlights USAID’s commitment to improving the lives of individuals and communities in the region amidst challenging conditions. Since 2021, USAID/West Bank and Gaza has invested over $600 million in economic support funding of the Palestinian people, in addition to the over $2.1 billion in humanitarian assistance since October 7, 2023.

The Biden-Harris administration has made America one of the world’s leading funders of Islamic terrorism. Take away a lot of our ‘humanitarian aid’ and a lot of the terrorism will go with it.

Can Trump End Ukraine’s ‘Endless War?’ There are lots of parties who want, and lots of incentives for, an end to our 21st-century Verdun. By Victor Davis Hanson

https://amgreatness.com/2024/11/18/can-trump-end-ukraines-endless-war/

Trump was elected in part on promises to avoid “endless wars” of the sort that cost American blood and treasure in Afghanistan and Iraq but without resulting in strategic advantage or civilized calm.

Yet as a Jacksonian, Trump also restored American deterrence through punitive strikes against ISIS and terrorist thugs like Baghdadi and Soleimani—without being bogged down in costly follow-ups. During the last four administrations, Putin stayed within his borders only during the Trump four years.

But upon entering office, Trump will likely still be faced with something far more challenging as he confronts what has become the greatest European killing field since World War II—the cauldron on the Ukrainian border that has likely already cost 1-1.5 million combined dead, wounded, and missing Ukrainian and Russian soldiers and civilians.

There is no end in sight after three years of escalating violence. But there are increasing worries that strategically logical and morally defensible—but geopolitically dangerous—Ukrainian strikes on the Russian interior will nonetheless escalate and lead to a wider war among the world’s nuclear powers.

Many on the right wish for Trump to immediately cut off all aid to Ukraine for what they feel is an unwinnable war, even if that abrupt cessation would end any leverage with which to force Putin to negotiate.

They claim the war was instigated by a globalist left, serving as a proxy conflict waged to ruin Russia at the cost of Ukrainian soldiers. They see it orchestrated by a now non-democratic Ukrainian government, lacking elections, a free press, or opposition parties, led by an ungracious and corrupt Zelensky cadre that has allied with the American left in an election year.

Trump II: Challenges Ahead by Amir Taheri

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21119/trump-challenges

The real question, therefore, is what could Trump II do to restore America’s prestige across the globe and reassert itself as the indispensable power that it still is? The answer is: plenty.

In fact, Trump, even if he doesn’t do anything, will repair some of the damage that the past three administrations shaped by Barack Obama have done to US standing and credibility as a world power.

In those 12 years of Obama and Biden, US leaders went around the world to apologize for imaginary injustices done by Americans to various segments of mankind, mused about “leading from behind” and presented the United States as a room service that doesn’t even ask you to sign the bill let alone offer a tip.

Under the three Obama administrations, with Trump I as a brief interlude, the US saw Russia attack and occupy parts of Georgia and annex Crimea and eventually invade Ukraine, and the US did nothing.

Obama drew a red line against the use of chemical weapons to kill Syrian people, but when Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia, did so, went into purdah.

To divert attention from the Middle East, Obama conjured the “pivot to Asia” slogan, while letting China grab a bigger chunk of the world, including US markets, in the name of free trade.

Also remember that regardless of what experts or even Trump himself say, the 47th president is likely to be as unpredictable as the 45th one, a feature that helped him in foreign policy last time and may do so again.

What will Donald Trump’s foreign policy look like in his second term?

This is the question currently making the buzz in the commentariat around the world.

Western European pundits claim that Trump will abandon the Ukrainian lamb to the Russian wolf or, at least, force the European shepherd to foot the bill for keeping it half alive.