https://www.wsj.com/articles/irans-ballistic-missiles-and-the-folly-of-appeasement-biden-classical-deterrence-defense-system-uae-saudi-arabia-houthis-khamenei-nuclear-deal-11668006270?mod=opinion_lead_pos8
The news that Iran’s contribution to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine will soon include ballistic missiles as well as kamikaze drones has alerted the world to the surprising advances the Islamic Republic has made in disruptive weapons technologies. To the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, these technologies are as important as its nuclear-weapons program.
One man who understands this better than most is Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie, who retired in April as commander of U.S. Central Command, the military command responsible for the Middle East. Gen. McKenzie recently warned about the impact of Iran’s advances in ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones. “Over the past five to seven years, Iranian capabilities . . . have risen to such a degree that now they possess what I would call effective ‘overmatch’ against their neighbors,” he said on Oct. 6 at Policy Exchange, a London think tank. “Overmatch,” he continued, “is a military term that means you have the ability to attack, and the defender won’t be able to mount a successful defense.”
The Iranians essentially have established a balance of power that favors offensive action by Iran. Lopsided defense economics partially explain this: America and its allies spend more money—tens or hundreds of times more—to intercept Iranian missiles and drones than it costs Iran to build and launch those weapons.
More important, when combined in a large strike package, some of Iran’s missiles and drones will inevitably break through America’s defensive shield guarding its allies and military bases in the Middle East. The IRGC combines ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones in strike packages. Each of these systems have different flight characteristics, radar signatures and homing angles. When launched simultaneously they tax the sensors of missile-defense systems. Even the most sophisticated systems operating at peak performance can’t prevent at least some of Iran’s weapons, when launched in significant quantities, from hitting their targets.