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FOREIGN POLICY

In the Shadow of the Mushroom Cloud Biden, Putin, and the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. Robin Ashenden

https://quillette.com/2022/10/25/in-the-shadow-of-the-mushroom-cloud/

The threat of a nuclear war, absent from our headlines for decades, is in the news again. Putin threatens Ukraine with an atomic strike and Biden tells us we’re closer to Armageddon than any time in the last 60 years. Meanwhile, British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace flies to the US to discuss the danger of Russia detonating a nuclear bomb over the Black Sea as a show of destructive strength. A bumper crop of articles have appeared in the world press announcing that this time the nuclear threat could be in earnest. British MP Robert Seely, a long-time Russia expert, reminds us of the country’s first-use policy and warns that “saying Putin is bluffing is no longer serious.”

In the Spectator, historian Mark Galeotti tries to calm nerves by walking us through all the complicated steps the Kremlin would have to take in order to release a nuclear device. But in April, Galeotti was writing about Putin’s RS-28 Sarmat missile—a new super-weapon with a range of 11,000 miles and a maximum load-capacity of 50 megatons (over 2,500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb), which carries 15 nuclear warheads dispersible to multiple locations. Reportedly, it is due to be operational in December. Meanwhile, in the US, bunker sales are soaring, with one company reporting that, following the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine in February, enquiries regarding shelters had risen from less than 100 a month to over 3,000. The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, indolently at grass since the end of the Cold War, are apparently cantering over the horizon towards us once again.

Biden’s reference point for nuclear danger was the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, and the comparison was apt. Go back exactly 60 years this week and we find a crisis with at least superficial similarities to the one we are experiencing today—two rival camps stonily contemplating one another, one of which had a smaller, less powerful country in its gunsights; a nation led by a charismatic leader in combat fatigues desperately calling for help from the other side. In 1962, however, the war was cold not hot, and the small country was Cuba, a Caribbean island just 90 miles from the United States.

That Cuba was menaced by the US is not in doubt. Since Fidel Castro’s communist revolution in 1958, it had been near the top of America’s “to do” list. The doomed and disastrous Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961—in which 1,400 anti-Castro Cubans were encouraged to storm the island, insufficiently supported by the White House, and duly captured and imprisoned by Castro—was only a temporary setback. It was followed by a US economic blockade and the infamous Operation Mongoose, a series of botched US assassination plots against Castro. A communist takeover on America’s doorstep was anathema to the White House. What if other Latin American nations followed suit?

America’s ‘Acute’ Foreign Policy Disarray by Pete Hoekstra

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19034/america-foreign-policy-disarray

Saudi Arabia is deeply concerned… that the Iran agreement will soon be back on the table…. The Saudis quite correctly believe that that the new Iran deal, rather than stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons, would actually pave the way to nuclear weapons, in addition to giving Iran’s despotic regime up to a trillion dollars — if the mullahs would please just not use the nuclear weapons on the Biden administration’s watch.

While the grisly murder of Osama bin Laden’s close friend Jamal Khashoggi was far from acceptable, the sad reality is that the Kingdom is no more guilty of unspeakable behavior than are Iran, Russia, China, North Korea, Turkey Venezuela, Qatar or a number of other nations that the Biden administration and the international community are cozying up to.

Many onlookers believe that the Saudi move is a direct signal to Biden about Saudi Arabia’s concerns over the “stalled” but apparently not-quite-ended-yet nuclear deal with Iran.

Although Biden supposedly will examine all aspects of the U.S.-Saudi relationship, he threatened the kingdom with “consequences” — reportedly by suspending arms sales — all because Saudi Arabia is trying to defend itself from being potentially obliterated by an openly hostile Iran.

The U.S. seeks to harshly punish any country opposed to U.S. efforts for a questionable nuclear agreement that would empower Iran, and vastly enrich it and its numerous terrorist proxies, including the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Through them, Iran is already effectively in charge of four countries in addition to its own: Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq.

If the U.S. really believes Russia is an acute threat, the U.S. should act as if it is and stop propping up Russia’s allies, such as Iran.

The U.S. should be working with countries in the Middle East to support efforts against Russia and Iran’s regime.

No wonder questions are being raised as to just how “compromised” Biden might actually be.

The U.S. would do well to stop this foolish obsession with getting a new Iran nuclear deal. It is inconsistent with the rest of America’s values, foreign policy and national security interests. Send a clear message to Russia, Iran’s mullahs, Europe, the Middle East — and, most importantly, to Iranian and American citizens — that the Iran nuclear deal, finally, is dead.

The confusion and lack of clarity in the current administration’s foreign policies are growing ever more dangerous for US national security.

Biden Embraces America’s Fiercest Enemies: Whose Side Is He On?by Khaled Abu Toameh

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19024/biden-embraces-enemies

• These members of Congress, [Saudi author Mohammed Al-Saed] implied, either do not know or are conveniently “forgetting” that Iran has been at least as brutal to Americans as Saudi Arabia has.
• While the gruesome murder of Osama bin Laden’s good friend, Jamal Khashoggi — whose dream was to “establish an Islamic state anywhere” — cannot be ignored, Iran’s regime has created a list of hostile acts against the US at least as long.
• This simplified list does not even include that Iran is presently supplying Russia with kamikaze drones and trainers as well as missiles to use against the civilians of Ukraine. Just suppose for an instant that Iran possessed nuclear weapons instead?
• Iran already controls four Middle Eastern countries in addition to its own — Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq — as well as countless terrorist proxies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Since 1979, the Iranian regime has repeated its plan of “Death to Israel” and “Death to America.” And now the Biden administration still wishes it could “reward” Iran with legitimized nuclear weapons, the ballistic missiles to deliver them, and a trillion dollars? How can anyone see that as “fair”?
• Yet Biden has threatened there will be “consequences” for Saudi Arabia because it declined to help the US enrich and empower its most openly bellicose enemy. How could it? Had Biden offered to drop the new Iran deal, the Saudi answer might well have been different.
• “Saudi Arabia is just defending its interests and security, which is under threat from Washington’s new allies in Iran.” — Mohammed Al-Saed, Saudi author, Okaz, October 17, 2022.
• [T]he Biden administration was damaging America’s relations with its historical friends and allies while sending “positive messages” to America’s fiercest enemies and haters. — Dr. Ibrahim Al-Nahhas, Saudi political analyst, Al-Riyadh, October 19, 2022.
• [T]he Biden administration has preferred to attack Saudi Arabia than deal with the use of Iranian drones by the Russians in Ukraine… Were it not for American and European leniency, especially since the era of Barack Obama, who tried with all naivety to rehabilitate the Iranian regime, Iran would not have interfered in the internal affairs of Europe and four Arab countries (Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen) — Tarik Al-Hamid, former editor-in-chief of the Saudi-owned Asharq Al-Awsat, October 19, 2022.
• Since Barack Obama admitted erring in his failure to support Iran’s protestors in 2009, however, has US policy changed? Apart from painfully feeble lip-service to the protestors in Iran, Biden and his administration, through their inaction, appear still to be totally committed to their initial alliance with Russia and Iran.
• Biden and his administration , it appears, would rather align themselves with the mullahs in Iran and the new “Russian-Iranian Axis of Evil,” than strengthen their ties with America’s longstanding partners, the Arabs in the Gulf.
• The winners: Russia and Iran.

This Bill Would Sanction Iran’s Leaders for Human Rights Crimes. Not a Single Democrat Supports It. Adam Kredo

https://freebeacon.com/national-security/this-bill-would-sanction-irans-leaders-for-human-rights-crimes-not-a-single-democrat-supports-it/

As the Iranian regime violently cracks down on growing nationwide protests, lawmakers’ attention is again on the atrocities committed at the hands of the Iranian regime. Yet not a single House Democrat has lent support to legislation that would sanction Iran’s supreme leader and his inner circle for mass human rights crimes, according to senior congressional sources familiar with the matter.

The bill, dubbed the Mahsa Amini Act after the 22-year-old Iranian woman who was killed by the regime’s morality police for improperly wearing her head covering, would “impose sanctions on the supreme leader of Iran and the president of Iran and their respective offices for human rights abuses and support for terrorism,” according to a copy of the measure obtained by the Washington Free Beacon. Amini’s murder last month sparked nationwide anti-regime protests that threaten to topple the hardline Iranian government, which has reacted to the demonstrations with more violence, including beating, imprisoning, and shooting protesters.

The Republican-led bill was circulated to every single Democratic House office, but not a single one has yet to cosponsor the bill, two senior Republican congressional aides told the Free Beacon.

Russia, Iran’s Mullahs Deepen Ties to Crush Ukraine: Why Is Biden Administration Silent? by Majid Rafizadeh

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19011/russia-iran-crush-ukraine

In August 2015, Obama spelled out what his deal would accomplish. It is worth a look at it with the benefit of hindsight….

What is striking is that just about everything turned out to be exactly the opposite.

A report by Iran’s state-controlled Afkar News bears the title, “American Soil Is Now Within the Range of Iranian Bombs.”

“By sending a military satellite into space, Iran now has shown that it can target all American territory,” the report boasts about the damage that the Iranian regime could inflict on the US, “the Iranian parliament had previously warned [the US] that an electromagnetic nuclear attack on the United States would likely kill 90 percent of Americans.”

Russia is now deploying Iranian missiles, Iranian drones and personnel to attack Ukraine, and, incredibly, negotiating for America’s interests (supposedly) during the new Iranian nuclear talks in Vienna while the Americans are not allowed in the room.

This raises the question: Is the Biden administration so deeply in the thrall of Russia that Biden is actually “in Putin’s pocket”?

“Right now, the talks on revival of JCPOA are not on the US agenda,” US negotiator Robert Malley told CNN on October 17. The operative words, of course, are “Right now.” The Biden administration could be waiting until Congress is in recess for its Christmas break and unable to stop the deal.

Do not repeat these mistakes again. The Biden administration’s feckless leadership keeps empowering the world’s most despotic, destabilizing regimes: Iran’s mullahs, Russia, the Chinese Communist Party North Korea, Turkey, Venezuela…. Drop the nuclear deal. Not “right now.” Forever.

The Biden administration appears to be willing to turn a blind eye to crimes committed by the Iranian regime and its staunch ally, Russia, presumably not to jeopardize the revival of former President Barack Obama’s disastrous 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The deal would enable the ruling regime of Iran – against whom their own people are heroically rebelling – to soon have an unlimited nuclear weapons capability, unlimited missiles with which to deliver the weapons and empower the regime and its terrorist militia, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), with a trillion dollars to wreak more mayhem in the Middle East.

JFK’s Cuban missile crisis: Lessons for Biden: Lawrence Haas

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/3698207-jfks-cuban-missile-crisis-lessons-for-biden/

“I’ve got a guy over there in Moscow who’s in a corner,” President Kennedy mused about Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev during the Cuban Missile Crisis, “and I don’t want to get him in a corner. I want to give him the opinion he can get out.”

Kennedy’s recognition that Khrushchev would need to find a way out of his corner (i.e., a political off-ramp) if he were going to remove the Soviet missiles from Cuba, as the United States was demanding, was but one savvy piece of JFK’s seasoned diplomacy that helped resolve the crisis peacefully.

This month marks the 60th anniversary of that crisis, and Washington now faces a leader in Moscow who is threatening to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, which could trigger a full-scale nuclear war. If the Cuban Missile Crisis was the most perilous moment of the Cold War, Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats may mark the most perilous moment to date of the post-Cold War period.

JFK’s leadership during 13 days of high drama provides five lessons to help President Biden navigate today’s crisis.

Biden Deflects To Saudi Arabia: Shoshana Bryen

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/10/biden_deflects_to_saudi_arabia.html

Deflection. That’s when someone tries to turn aside responsibility and shift it to someone/something else. Today’s example is the rampage by the White House and Democrats against Saudi Arabia, accusing it of cutting oil production because it is in bed with Russia against American interests in Ukraine.

CNN correspondent Manu Raju tweeted on Wednesday [Rep.] “Ro Khanna and [Sen.] Dan Blumenthal are calling for bill in lame-duck halting arm sales for a year. Calls for NOPEC legislation. And Durbin this AM: ‘I don’t see any reason to arm them now if they believe their future is linked to Vladimir Putin in any way.’”

National Security spokesman John Kirby tried deflection as he announced the White House’s displeasure: “The Saudi Foreign Ministry can try to spin or deflect…  (but) The Saudis conveyed to us… their intention to reduce oil production, which they knew would increase Russian revenues and blunt the effectiveness of sanctions… They could easily wait for the next OPEC meeting… we are reevaluating our relationship with Saudi Arabia… continue to look for signs about where they stand in combatting Russian aggression.”

The reason the White House wanted the cuts to wait until the next OPEC meeting may have something to do with America’s mid-term election. Why the Saudis would care about that is unclear. The fact is that countries make economic and security decisions based on their own interests and their peoples’ interests.

Arabs: Biden Emboldening Iran, Harming US Interests by Khaled Abu Toameh

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19006/biden-emboldening-iran

“[T]his relationship [between the US and Saudi Arabia] should be based on reciprocity. If Washington is looking for its own interests, as with the Iran nuclear deal or the cancellation of the [Iranian-backed] Houthi group’s designation as a terrorist group, Saudi Arabia also has the right to seek its own interests….” — Rami Al-Khalifa, Syrian author, Elaph, October 12, 2022.

“Biden was the one who decided to pursue a hostile policy towards the [Arab] allies. He and his team were the ones who gave in to America’s enemies and went looking for nuclear agreements that are fraught with flaws and harm to many of America’s friends.” — Abdul Jalil Al-Saeid, Syrian author, Al-Ain, October 11, 2022.

The Arab League, for its part, condemned the Biden administration for waging a “negative campaign” against Saudi Arabia.

These reactions from the Arab countries indicate that the Arabs no longer see the US as a strategic ally or even as a friend. This is excellent news for the mullahs in Iran and their terrorist proxies in the Middle East, including Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Houthis in Yemen.

“In retrospect, I think that was a mistake,” Obama said, referring his total failure to help the Iranian protestors in 2009, when he sided with the regime…. He ended by noting that it was important “to affirm what they do and I hope that it brings about more space for the kind of civic conversation that over time can take the country down a better path.”

“Civic conversation”? With Iran’s savage regime? That’s it?

White House spokesman John Kirby gave the game away. “The president ,” he said, “still believes that a diplomatic way forward is the best way forward….”

It is not a secret, however, that a diplomatic way without a credible military threat to back it up is useless. Even soft-power advocate Joseph Nye, former Dean of the Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, had to concede that, “to be realistic, soft power is never going to replace hard power.”

The Biden administration appears to be waiting until after the November mid-term elections, when Congress will be in recess for its Christmas holiday and therefore unable to block the deal.

So far, 50 “deeply concerned” members of Congress, mostly Democrats from Biden’s own party, have sent Biden a letter effectively opposing the deal.

The Saudis and their allies in the Gulf appear to be wondering why Biden is threatening them with “consequences” simply for trying to protect themselves from soon being annihilated by Iran, especially as it was the US that introduced the mortal threat against the Saudis — by granting Iran nuclear weapons with the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal — in the first place.

In [2015]… Obama revealingly let slip: “Even before taking office, I made clear that Iran would not be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon on my watch…” [Emphasis added.]

The new Iran deal, according to reports, also does not prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons capability, and would merely postpone the same disaster until after the Biden administration’s “watch.”

“[H]ow can we in good conscience,” Obama said in his July 2015 statement, “justify war before we’ve tested a diplomatic agreement that achieves our objectives; that has been agreed to by Iran.”

This diplomatic agreement has now been tested. It failed. That is why this or any agreement with Iran should be allowed to die a dignified death, especially during Congress’s Christmas recess.

The Saudis and other Arabs who were once considered America’s major allies in the Middle East have resumed their criticism of the Biden administration, accusing it of harming US interests and alienating Washington’s friends.

The criticism came after US President Joe Biden threatened that “there will be consequences” for US relations with Saudi Arabia after OPEC+ announced that it would cut its oil production target. It also came after White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said a policy review of US-Saudi relations would be conducted in response to the OOEC+ announcement.

The Need for Real Leadership: The Cost of Not Supporting Ukraine by Pete Hoekstra

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18998/leadership-cost-ukraine-support

The difficult reality is that we may never know what would push Putin to make the decision to go nuclear…. The U.S. objective should be to deter him: make the potential cost to him so high that it would be suicidal for him even to try.

The clearest and most welcome statement was made by Biden himself in March: he stated, “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.”

Biden is old enough to remember that “what happens in Sudetenland does not stay in Sudetenland.” If Putin is allowed to occupy Ukraine, Russia — and undoubtedly all the other aggressor nations waiting in the wings — China, Iran, Turkey, North Korea — will be emboldened to begin a free-for-all of invading their countries of choice. Putin could further move to take over Moldova, Poland and the Baltic states, for a start; Turkey could move on Greece and southern Cyprus, and China would most certainly move on the world’s computer-chip center, Taiwan.

Biden…. on day one, effectively closed down America’s ability to produce and export oil, thereby instantly creating an acute shortage of energy worldwide. Putin could not have dreamed of a bigger gift. Immediately, the price of oil tripled, from roughly $40 to $112. Russia was making a billion dollars a day, or $360 billion a year. Biden, with a stroke of his pen, had just financed Russia’s entire war on Ukraine even before granting Putin the use of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Europe, thereby guaranteeing Russia the ability to hold Europe hostage come winter.

The problem with this response [wishing to isolate America to avoid restoring Ukraine’s integrity] is that it is exactly the same view that, in 1938, led British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain to wave around a piece of paper and inaccurately claim “peace for our time” with Hitler. Chamberlain evidently saw that his British voters did not want war, so he tried to give them what they wanted. That is not great leadership; that is great followership.

People in thriving democracies usually do not want war — ever. They can see that they are enjoying magical, free lives — and wish to keep them. We all would like peace handed to us on a platter. Unfortunately, that is not always the available choice, particularly looking a few moves ahead. How much less costly it would have been in blood and treasure to have stopped Hitler before he crossed the Rhine. Surrender always remains an option — but usually not a happy one.

The U.S. and EU must put in place compelling plans to address the threat of slowing economies (growth); high inflation (stop government spending); rising energy prices (re-open the oil spigots), and potential shortages… at the same time as educating the public about the even worse consequences of not supporting Ukraine.

The idea is to make Putin afraid, not Americans.

Leaders of both U.S. political parties need clearly to articulate the American strategic interest in Ukraine, where a Western defeat could mean the beginning of the end of Europe, and let Putin know in no uncertain terms what the U.S. responses to any unpleasant escalation might be. The same can be done in European capitals and NATO countries, as well.

Leaders of both parties also need to lay out how they will address the current internal economic crises, their continuing support for Ukraine, defeating Putin and deterring further aggression by Russia, China, Turkey, North Korea and Iran. Short of delivering on these questions, they are doing no less than seriously jeopardizing the long-term national security of the U.S. and the West.

U.S. President Joe Biden is known for making confusing and sometimes wild pronouncements that his administration is known for frequently walking back. This might have been the case when he randomly decided to tell an audience of well-heeled Democrats at a fundraiser that Russian President Vladimir Putin is “not joking” about using nuclear, biological or chemical weapons. “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon,” he added, “since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis.”

Biden Administration’s Dithering Inviting Worldwide Aggression: Russia, China, Iran by Guy Millière

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18964/aggression-russia-ukraine

The West is not threatening Russia. Putin is threatening the West.

Putin might desperately try to reverse the situation, whatever the cost… Ukraine and its heroism have shocked the world. Ukraine’s army can win, but it will require the unwavering support of the West.

The men Putin recently began sending to the front may be reservists, but most have not held a weapon for a very long time and have no will to fight. Some who managed to send messages on Telegram channels say they know they are destined to be cannon fodder.

Putin has almost no allies and could lose what limited support he has. Chinese President Xi Jinping has in common with Putin a clear hostility to the West, but has reportedly not supplied Russia with weapons.

During a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Samarkand, Uzbekistan last month, Xi reportedly told Putin that it was necessary to “instill stability and positive energy into a world in turmoil”. Whatever that meant, it was not a message of support for the war.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on September 20 that “Russia should return the occupied lands to Ukraine” — not exactly the direction in which Putin would like to be going.

The Chinese Communist Party, which openly says it wants to dominate the world, apparently does not want a larger war just now. On September 24, Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, was even more explicit…

The United States has, once again, like it or not, emerged as the only power capable of defeating an aggressive enemy of democracy; when it does, the status of the US and NATO are strengthened. It is, however, impossible to forget that America’s debacle in Afghanistan, the Biden administration’s frenzy to sign a lethal nuclear deal with Iran under almost any conditions, and the extreme weakness of Biden’s White House before Putin invaded Ukraine. These failures no doubt played into Putin’s decision to invade.

The Biden administration’s failure to arm Ukraine before the invasion and his comments that a “minor incursion” might be acceptable were catastrophic. The same failure to provide sufficient deterrence to Taiwan is unquestionably inviting Communist Chinese aggression.

The weakness of the Biden administration has created aggression everywhere — Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, North Korea; assaults on the dollar as the World’s reserve currency — even domestically.

Will the Biden administration ever learn from its mistakes? Or is its ultimate, unspoken goal actually to hand over the United States quietly to Russia, China and Iran?

September 21. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a pre-recorded speech on Russian television, announces that Russia is being attacked by the Ukrainian government and the West. He defines Ukrainian territories occupied by the Russian army as “liberated zones”. He speaks of the referendums he staged in the regions of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson to try illegally to attach them to Russia. He says that he has decided on a “partial mobilization” to defend the Russian fatherland; adds that the West threatens Russia, and that any aggression against Russian territory will lead to a response by “all weapon systems available to us”.