RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2022/08/defense-diversity-and-china-threat-william-kilpatrick/

The FBI raid on Donald Trump’s estate has temporarily pushed the China threat out of the headlines.  But, of course, the threat is still there and so is the question of how to respond to it.

Teddy Roosevelt said that when dealing with hostile foreign powers one should “speak softly and carry a big stick.”  In other words, don’t provoke your enemies, but let them know that you possess sufficient fire power and personnel to handle any situation that may arise.

Roosevelt decidedly did not say, “shout loudly and carry a small twig.”  But there is a danger that some people, both in and out of government, may fall into the trap of thinking that tough talk by itself is a sufficient response.

Of course, I exaggerate when I use the term “a small twig.”  The U.S. still possesses a formidable military.  But there is evidence that, in comparison to China, it is no longer as formidable as it once was.

An article on missile defense systems in the March issue of National Defense outlines the problem.  It points out that in 2020, the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) began fielding hypersonic weapon systems “with a high level of maneuverability” that makes it difficult for traditional missiles to defend against them.

Moreover, the PLA strategy “focuses on using offensive strikes to gain a military advantage at the beginning of a conflict.”  According to Timothy Walton, a fellow at the Hudson Institute’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology, “they [the PLA] talk about conducting preventative attacks…and preemptive attacks of various kinds.”

https://www.jns.org/opinion/the-satanic-stabbing-of-salman-rushdie-and-the-dangerous-iran-deal/
 The attempted murder on Friday of Salman Rushdie is the latest in a string of appalling incidents that ought to put the United States and its P5+1 partners to shame for their efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with the evil regime in Tehran.

Rushdie, author of “The Satanic Verses“—the 1988 book that earned him critical acclaim in the West and a fatwa for his annihilation from Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini—was about to address a large audience at the Chautauqua Institution in upstate New York when he was tackled and stabbed multiple times by a radical Muslim enamored of Iran.

Despite ridiculous reports of an unclear motive for the attack, the 24-year-old perpetrator, Lebanese-American Hadi Matar of New Jersey, made no bones on social media about his support for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The only question is whether he plotted the killing purely for ideological reasons or also had his eye on the $3.3 million bounty on Rushdie’s head. Perhaps both, as they are not mutually exclusive.

His affinity for the IRGC and proxies was also apparent in his choice of name on the phony driver’s license he used as an ID to enter the premises: Hassan Mughniyah. The alias was a tribute to two arch-terrorists, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and Imad Mughniyah, the former head of the Iran-backed, Lebanon-based organization’s international operations, whose assassination in Damascus in 2008 has been attributed to the Mossad.

Though Matar appears to have acted alone, Iran’s state-run media and hardline pundits have been praising him to the skies for knifing the “apostate.”

The significance of the bloody assault, from which the 75-year-old Rushdie may not recover, is in its timing. Two days earlier, the U.S. Justice Department (DOJ) filed criminal charges against 45-year-old Iranian national and IRGC member Shahram Poursafi for trying late last year to hire individuals in Washington D.C. and Maryland to kill former American officials John Bolton and Mike Pompeo.

According to the DOJ, the foiled plot was “likely in retaliation” for the U.S. air strike that killed IRGC Quds Force commander Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani in January 2020. Since that time, the IRGC has been vowing to take revenge on America.

As the Rushdie fatwa illustrates, Iranians have a long memory; in this sense, Soleimani’s death is not only fresh in their minds, but will remain so for decades. Indeed, even Tehran’s denial of the targeting of Bolton and Pompeo includes a reference to Soleimani.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18788/america-strategic-oil-reserves

The Biden administration in April sanctioned the sale of our nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve to the highest bidder. They have done so under the logic that putting more oil on the global market at a time when Russia has an energy stranglehold on Europe could force down the pump price of gasoline.

One could ask, as Congressional mid-term elections loom, and the price of gas soared to five dollars a gallon, has the White House made a strategic energy decision based on politics rather than on what is in the best security interests of our nation — because the country that is among the high bidders for our oil reserves is China.

This is the China that has obliterated Tibet.

This is the China that practices slavery, torture in internment camps, forced labor, child labor and organ-harvesting on live detainees.

This is the China that has choked democracy in Hong Kong.

This is the China that threatens the freedom of 23 million Taiwanese.

This is the China that has sought to cripple an Australian military plane flying over international waters.

This is the China that has fired missiles into Japan’s exclusive economic zone and tried to blind US pilots with laser beams.

https://amgreatness.com/2022/08/07/nancy-pelosis-childlike-diplomacy-mirrors-americas-childlike-posture-toward-china/

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s sin was not in going to Taiwan per se. Rather, after announcing her destination, the California Democrat then sorta kinda hesitated in deer-in-the-headlights fashion under threat from the Chinese.  

So, by her back-and-forth media announcements, she added to the endemic strategic confusion at the White House and Pentagon that opposed her visit. Pelosi never gave a reason why she was going to Taiwan, except to note after the fact that as a child, she used to like China and at the beach would dig in the sand to reach Beijing.

In other words, in her eight decades since infancy, Pelosi has not yet learned the difference between Chinese Taiwan and the Chinese Communist mainland and has come up with no greater affinity with the Chinese than remembering as a child vainly digging in the sand to reach them.

The internal administration discord reminded the Chinese that the Biden Administration can still become even more inept than it has been since its inaugural humiliation in Anchorage, Alaska. 

And lastly, Pelosi showboated with loud freedom rhetoric while carrying a mere twig.

So, yes, ostensibly, it was silly for Nancy Pelosi to freelance in foreign policy by going to Taiwan. She has no record of any foreign policy accomplishment.

Ever since her first speakership 15 years ago, Pelosi has always seen foreign policy as an arena to embarrass her political opponents. We remember her dishonest post-9/11 public reversals about enhanced interrogations, and her all-but-rooting-for the surge in Iraq to fail.

https://compactmag.com/article/sleepwalking-into-war-with-china

Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan marks the beginning of a new and dire strategic crisis with China. Whether by accident or design, the Biden Administration is sleepwalking into war with China—quickly, but not quickly enough for most Republican leaders. While the United States wasted $6 trillion or more in failed nation-building campaigns during the past 20 years, China focused its military resources on surface-to-ship missiles, modern aircraft, submarines, and electronic warfare measures on its coast. If we fight China on its home seas, we probably will lose.

“There is a fundamental asymmetry of strategic interest in Taiwan.”

There is a fundamental asymmetry of strategic interest in Taiwan between China and the United States. China is not a nation-state but a polyglot empire. Only 1 in 10 Chinese converses in Mandarin, the state dialect, according to a 2014 government study. Most speak one of 200 dialects. China is held together as it has been for thousands of years by a common tax collector in Beijing and the Mandarin bureaucracy, recast as the Chinese Communist Party. One rebel province—as Beijing views Taiwan—sets a precedent for many. Countless times in its long history, China has fragmented into warring provinces, encouraged during the 19th and 20th centuries by foreign powers.

Opposition to Taiwanese sovereignty is a raison d’etre of the Chinese state, and Beijing will go to war to prevent it. Beijing will tolerate the status quo, but not if it believes the United States is promoting Taiwanese sovereignty.

What makes Pelosi’s visit so provocative is her constitutional status as second in the line of presidential succession. A visit by an American vice president would, in diplomatic protocol, verge upon diplomatic recognition and crosses a red line; a visit by the next-in-line to the vice president touches that red line.

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2022/08/only-dangerous-thing-about-pelosis-taiwan-visit-daniel-greenfield/

If you believe the Biden administration and its media allies, members of congress visiting Taiwan is a shocking and unprecedented event. Except that Senator Tammy Duckworth visited Taiwan in May. Senator Richard Burr,  Robert Menendez, Lindsey Graham, Ben Sasse and Robert Portman came in April. Along with Rep. Ronny Jackson 

Senator Dan Sullivan and Chris Coons flew over last summer. In the fall, Rep. Nancy Mace, Sarah Jacobs, Mark Takano, Elissa Slotkin and Colin Allred saw the sights.

Thanks in part to the Taiwan Travel Act, which passed with no opposition and was signed by President Trump in 2018, Taiwan is Grand Central Station for congressional delegations.

Pelosi is higher-ranking only in that she’s the outgoing lame duck leader of a vanishing majority.

China was not threatened by Pelosi’s visit. It chose to exploit it as an opportunity to intimidate the Biden administration and blackmail its weak enemies. And whatever else happens, it succeeded in exposing once again how worthless Biden’s tough talk about Taiwan is.

“Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan?” Biden had been asked at a press conference with the Japanese prime minister.

“Yes,” he assured. “That’s the commitment we made.”

“We made a sacred commitment to Article 5 that if, in fact, anyone were to invade or take action against our Nato allies, we would respond. Same with Japan, same with South Korea, same with Taiwan,” Biden had promised.

https://asiatimes.com/

The Biden Administration’s policy signaling on China has been confused and contradictory from the inception of the Administration, and the confusion around House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s rumored visit to Taiwan suggests that Biden’s foreign policy team blundered its way into a prospective crisis. At China Center’s deadline, Pelosi was en route to Asia, without confirmation or denial of a stop in Taiwan.

The seriousness of the present situation cannot be emphasized enough. Remnin University Professor Jin Canrong, one of the Chinese analysts most closely followed by Biden’s national security team, said Aug. 1 in an interview with the “Observer” (guancha.cn) website: “It can be said that in our offshore waters, whether in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, our military has advantages. Our ballistic missiles can cover the entire South China Sea, the air force can basically cover the entire South China Sea, and the navy has certain advantages over several US fleets. In addition, we have obvious advantages given our geographic position in electronic countermeasures and reconnaissance systems. If the US really wants to create friction here, it won’t be cheap.”

In off-record discussions in Washington, several US former top foreign policy officials expressed doubt that Pelosi planned a trip to Taiwan without consulting the White House. How the visit was first mooted suggests an amateurish attempt at plausible deniability. Pelosi did not announce a visit to Taiwan, and no American media outlet has confirmed such plans. Instead, the first mention of a possible visit came from the London Financial Times July 18, citing six separate sources. That is not eavesdropping at a hotel lobby bar, but a deliberate leak. The newspaper also said that the Administration was divided over whether Pelosi should visit Taiwan.

https://www.newsweek.com/reviving-dead-corpse-opinion-1728909

Robert Malley, the man who led the American delegation sitting outside the “Iran talks” in Vienna while American interests were represented inside those talks by the Europeans, Russians, and Chinese, has now thrown in the towel. “You can’t revive a dead corpse,” he has said.

Question: Can you revive a live corpse?

It isn’t a fully sarcastic question. American bribes thrown at Tehran—both for the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal (JCPOA) and the hoped-for-2021 reprisal—were intended to invigorate what was seen by two Democratic administrations as a live, but perhaps comatose, body. It was actually dead then, although the bribes were numerous.

Before the JCPOA, the U.S. had issued warrants for, arrested, tried, and/or convicted a number of Iranians for violations of American export laws regarding high technology or equipment that could have military application. The 2015 deal unfortunately reversed most of that.

Three Iranians were pardoned before trial, and a fourth in the same case had his charges dropped. Three men were released from prison for providing or planning to provide technology: fiber-optic gyroscopes and electron tubes, satellite service, and high-tech industrial parts. Charges were dropped against another man in the case, as well as the company he worked for. Charges against an Iranian accused of shipping lift truck parts, one accused of shipping antennae, and one accused of sending aircraft parts to Iran were also dropped—as were charges against three fugitive defendants wanted in federal court for cases involving alleged export controls or sanctions violations regarding goods headed for Iran.