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FOREIGN POLICY

The End of the Unipolar Moment The global chess pieces are moving. Josh Hammer

https://spectator.org/the-end-of-the-unipolar-moment/

“Effective statesmanship calls for recognizing the world as it is, not in wish casting what it could, or should, be. That means recognizing the end of the uni-polar era. Never before has clear-eyed, American national interest–centric realist diplomacy mattered more. But first let’s avoid getting sucked into World War III in Ukraine.”

The defeat of Nazi Germany and the Empire of Japan in World War II ushered in the Cold War era. For the four and a half decades between the defeat of fascism and the collapse of communism, global affairs unfolded within a bipolar backdrop of “mutually assured” destruction between the two nuclear superpowers: the United States and the Soviet Union. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the formal dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 ushered in a unipolar moment of unquestioned American economic, diplomatic, military, and geopolitical supremacy on the world stage.

Palestinians: US Weakness Facilitates the Rise of Jihad and Fundamentalism by Khaled Abu Toameh

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18310/palestinians-jihad-fundamentalism

“America is unable to decide on war against Russia, and therefore the US will not be a decision-maker in international politics.” — Musa Abu Marzouk, member of the Hamas “politburo,” Twitter, February 26, 2022.
As far as Hamas is concerned, the weaker the US the greater are their chances of fulfilling their goal of replacing Israel with an Islamic state.
Articles 13 of the Hamas Charter states “There is no solution to the Palestinian problem except by Jihad.”
Washington’s image in the Arab world has been battered to the point at which even its allies are beginning to challenge its policies and decisions, Atallah said.
“Biden [in his State of the Union speech] ignored the Afghanistan issue, especially in light of the confused [US] withdrawal. He was also cautious not to talk about relations with China so as not to provoke it. Biden’s speech confirms with full clarity the loss of a consistent strategic vision with regard to central issues globally. This is a sign of the loss of the prestige of the great country [the US]. Biden’s speech was a message of a historical recognition of the upcoming political defeat and the beginning of the birth of a new international order.” — Hassan Asfour, former Palestinian Authority minister, Khbrpress.ps, March 2, 2022.
“When two Gulf countries refuse to support the US, this means the image of America in the region is deeply tarnished, and that there is a changing mood.” — Sami Abu Zuhri, Hamas official, Khbrpress.ps, March 4, 2022.
The Americans need to understand that no matter how many gifts they give to the Palestinians, that will not stop Hamas and many others from continuing to hate the US and look at it as an enemy.
Some Arabs hate the US because of its support for corrupt Arab dictatorships and its war against Islamist terrorist groups. Others see the US as a country that represents the anti-Muslim “infidels” in the West.
The only way for the Americans to deal with these Muslim extremists is by not showing any sign of weakness or appeasement. The weaker you are and the more you try to appease them, the bigger their appetite becomes to fight against the US.
Such voices coming from the Palestinians corroborate claims of the erosion of the US standing, especially among the Arabs. They are responding to an anemic US under the Biden administration that has forfeited its credibility as well as its capacity to stand behind its allies and friends. This US approach does not bode well for the future of the region. The pattern of weakness and inaction are being interpreted as a sign of cowardice posing as “caution,” and as a green light to pursue jihadi and terrorist schemes and establish yet another Islamic fundamentalist state.

Hawks, Or Pigeons In A Bad Mood? American elites have squandered our technological and manufacturing advantage over both Russia and China.David Goldman

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/hawks-or-pigeons-in-a-bad-mood/

Few dispute that the Ukraine crisis brings with it the risk of nuclear escalation. The reverse also might be true: The Ukraine crisis may be the result of a shift in the world’s nuclear balance.

With an economy smaller than the state of Texas, Russia has built strategic weapons superior to many in the American arsenal. These include land as well as submarine-launched hypersonic weapons that can carry nuclear missiles past any American defense, as well as the world’s best air defense system, the S-500. The October 4, 2021, test of Russia’s submarine-launched “Zircon” hypersonic missile was the first-ever underwater firing of a low-altitude weapon that flies at nine times the speed of sound, according to Russian claims. A Russian sub lurking a hundred miles off the American coast could nuke Washington in a flat minute.

A day later Russia test-launched its S-500 air defense system, designed to destroy aircraft and missiles in a 600-kilometer radius, including targets in close space. And last December, Russia claimed to have tested the S-550 upgrade, which allegedly can destroy ICBMs as well as satellites. Russia has sold the earlier S-400 system to India, China, and Turkey; India may be the first foreign customer for an S-500.

Putin’s War Crimes: Reported Heroes and Others by Lawrence Kadish

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18314/putin-war-crimes-heroes

While many extraordinary American companies have voluntarily taken serious financial setbacks as their contribution to defending Ukraine — now the front line in a war on the Free World by Russian President Vladimir Putin — other companies have revealed themselves as indifferent at best.

Putin has curated a long track record of turning Grozny to rubble, flattening Aleppo, devouring Georgia and Crimea, and now has been dropping cluster and vacuum bombs, banned by the Geneva Conventions, on civilian targets in Ukraine. His troops have also attacked and taken over nuclear reactors, and Putin has repeatedly agreed to humanitarian evacuation routes that, when people emerge, the Russians shell — all in sub-zero, dead-of-winter weather. The problem: if Putin is allowed to take Ukraine, it will result in further annexations in Europe. The failure to contain aggressive acts results in further aggressive acts.

It is important immediately to follow the impressive example of worldwide heroes, above all, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. British Petroleum willingly absorbed a $25 billion loss. Elon Musk immediately made his Starlink satellite broadband internet service available in Ukraine and donated Starlink terminals to the people of Ukraine, in the event that their cyber capability was downed.

Kamala invades Poland: Witness the art of cackle diplomacy-Roger Kimball

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/kamala-harris-poland-diplomacy-ukraine/

You can tell that the Biden administration is getting serious. They have unleashed their ultimate weapon, cackle diplomacy.  The warhead is nicknamed Harris, and it is now in Poland cackling away, endeavoring to assemble the high-level Pierogis before Russia flattens Kyiv or Putin decides to go nuclear — and by “go nuclear,” alas, I mean “go nuclear.”

Some observers say that sending Kamala Harris on this mission will give her a chance to “burnish” her foreign policy credentials. Cynical folks — and I would include myself in that group — think it is just another emission of fog by America’s first certifiably senile administration.

“Ukraine is a country in Europe,” Harris recently explained to universal hilarity, “it exists next to another country called Russia. Russia is a bigger country. Russia is a powerful country. Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine. So, basically, that’s wrong, and it goes against everything that we stand for.”

Did I mention that the hilarity was laced with feelings of appalled panic? This, after all, was the vice president of the United States.

The messaging about Russia has not been particularly consistent. We all hate Putin: that message was clear enough. And we are all supposed to fawn over the latest pin-up from Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky.

There are a few other things that the official directive specifies. We’re not supposed to mention the thirty bioresearch labs that the US maintains in Ukraine. We are not supposed to mention Ukrainian support for Hillary Clinton and the Clinton Foundation, its government’s efforts to undermine Donald Trump, or its connection with George Soros, Klaus Schwab’s “Great Reset,” or its lavish financial support of the Biden family and the families of other high-ranking Americans. All that is off-script, so, even though it is potentially clarifying, I won’t mention it.

Biden’s ‘Capitulation’ To Iran Endangers Arabs, Middle East, U.S. by Khaled Abu Toameh

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18284/biden-capitulation-iran

“The parties of the international community that are negotiating with Iran…. must realize that the extremist Iranian regime has not, and will not, abide by international laws, regulations and agreements, even if it swore and signed or pledged to abide by and implement them. The Iranian regime was founded on the… Khomeini ideology that adopts terrorism and believes in exporting chaos and destruction.” — Dr. Ibrahim al-Nahhas, Saudi political analyst and academic, Al-Riyadh, February 23, 2022.

The Khomeini ideology… has already brought destruction to Arab countries, including Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Syria. — Dr. Ibrahim al-Nahhas, Al-Riyadh, February 23, 2022.

“Although the Biden administration pledged upon its arrival at the White House that it would not be a third term for former President Barack Obama, it is following him step by step. This is evident in the Biden administration’s position on the Iranian nuclear issue. This position seems to be weak, hesitant and subject to Iranian blackmail…. In the end, the countries of the region will not accept being hostage to Iranian nuclear technology.” — Rami Al-Khalifa Al-Ali, Syrian political analyst, Okaz, February 23, 2022.

The most dangerous point is that the US administration “has ignored other issues in which Iran poses a threat to the region, including the ballistic missile program” as well as the terrorist militias. — Rami Al-Khalifa Al-Ali, Okaz, February 23, 2022.

“These militias are Iran’s arm in the region and they intend to spread chaos and destruction wherever they are. The [new] agreement is expected to unleash Iran’s hand in the region, as what happened during the Obama era, which led to an increase in violence in the region.” — Rami Al-Khalifa Al-Ali, Okaz, February 23, 2022.

“It is not surprising that Vladimir Putin went to the end in Ukraine after discovering that he faced an American administration that could not be more than an extension of Barack Obama’s administration. The Biden administration can yell and threaten as much as it wants.” — Kheirallah Kheirallah, veteran Lebanese journalist, Al-Arab, February 16, 2022.

In [Fahs’s] view, not reaching any agreement would be better than reaching a new one. “The lack of agreement will keep the conflict with Iran confined to the great powers.” — Mustafa Fahs, Lebanese editor, Asharq Al-Awsat, February 25, 2022.

“Biden has decided to acquiesce in Iran… to yield to its expansionist project, which ultimately aims to impose Iranian hegemony in the region.” — Sayed Zahra, deputy editor of the Bahraini newspaper Akhbar Al-Khaleej, February 25, 2022.

“In other words, it means that Iran and its proxies feel at liberty to do whatever they want. We should expect that reaching a new agreement with Iran will mark the inauguration of a new era of escalation of the Iranian terrorist threat in the region. The Arab countries must prepare for this.” — Sayed Zahra, Akhbar Al-Khaleej, February 25, 2022.

Most disturbing is what a growing number of Arabs are trying to warn the Biden administration about: that striking a new deal with Iran would not only embolden Iran and its terrorist proxies and endanger America’s friends in the Middle East, but create calamitous turmoil, including a nuclear arms race “on steroids” in the region — all of which would justifiably be blamed on the Biden administration. It appears that the Biden administration has chosen to ignore the likelihood of this terrifying scenario. It is a decision that is causing irreparable damage to America’s credibility in the Middle East.

Moreover, as Arab analysts are saying in no uncertain terms, America and its Western allies are themselves in the sights of the mullahs in Tehran.

Worse, as with Biden’s generosity to Russian President Vladimir Putin in extending the new START treaty and gifting him the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline (which yesterday filed for bankruptcy), it will not buy goodwill. It will only appear as weakness and accelerate aggression against the West.

As the world’s attention is focused on the Russia-Ukraine war, the Arabs are continuing to express fear about the possibility that the Biden administration and the world powers will revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.

As Russia eats up headlines, don’t forget about Iran By Adam Turner

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/03/as_russia_eats_up_headlines_dont_forget_about_iran.html

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has occupied all of the media’s attention, leaving several other international priorities of the Biden administration to continue without much scrutiny.  One of these is the effort to revive a version of the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal.

From the outside, it would appear that Iran holds most of the cards when it comes to a new nuclear deal.  Even though deadlines for reaching a new accord have come and gone, the U.S. has granted extensions of sanctions waivers and kept the negotiations alive.  Whether this is driven by a dire need for a foreign policy victory or a sense that a new agreement is within reach remains an open question.

As the director of the Center to Advance Security in America, I am following the issue closely.  My organization is seeking records to help the public better understand whether a new deal is in America’s interest and what this means for exposing the priorities of the current administration.  On its face, the U.S. government’s position is that the deal is the best chance we have to stop Iran from joining the nuclear club.  But recent foreign policy debacles have raised concerns over the genuineness of this claim.

The most notable defeat is the embarrassing withdrawal from Afghanistan despite internal analysis indicating that senior decision-makers were aware of the potential for disastrous consequences from their planned actions, which my organization is also looking into.  History may be repeating itself in the Iran nuclear deal.  For instance, it recently came out that Richard Nephew and two other American negotiators resigned from the negotiations because they wanted a tougher posture.

OUR SILENCE IN EXCHANGE FOR A NUCLEAR WEAPONS DEAL WITH IRAN:COL.(RET.) WES MARTIN

https://issuesinsights.com/2022/02/25/our-silence-in-exchange-for-a-nuclear-weapons-deal-with-iran/

Politically suffering from America’s debacle extraction out of Afghanistan and his inability to deter Putin’s aggression on Ukraine, President Biden is in search of recognition for some positive accomplishment. Problem is he is focusing this effort on resurrecting the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran, otherwise known as the Nuclear Weapons Deal.

President Trump was justified in pulling out from JCPOA for two reasons. First, from the very beginning, Iran never honored a single element of the deal. Second, Trump’s predecessor ignored mandated consent.

By claiming JCPOA was an agreement and not a treaty, President Obama approved it as an executive decision rather than receive Senate approval as stated in Article 2, Section 2, Paragraph 2 of the U.S. Constitution. A treaty by any other name is still a treaty. There is no reason to believe that Biden will honor the U.S. Constitution any more than did his former boss.

Biden will also follow Obama’s policy of ignoring anything negative about Iran during the negotiations. Iran had basically a free run to commit terrorist acts throughout the world without much attention paid to it from 2009 to the first month of 2017. Iran also had $140 billion of frozen assets freed up by the Obama Administration and a relaxation of previous sanctions.

The Long Shadow of Versailles It’s time to abandon the “new world order” happy talk. Bruce Thornton

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2022/03/long-shadow-versailles-bruce-thornton/

Or we can continue with diplomatic bluster, “new world order” happy talk, and feeble sanctions, in which case we will just be managing our decline.

In 1919 the Versailles Treaty established in international law and global institutions two ideals that have framed Western foreign policy ever since. The first is the elevation of national self-determination and democratic government as the default goods for all the world’s peoples. The other is the notion that supranational institutions, international laws, and multinational treaties and covenants are the best means for adjudicating peacefully international disputes and conflicts.

Russia’s current violent, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is merely the latest example of a century’s worth of repudiation of these ideals that still shape modern foreign policy––a challenge that, if we’re lucky, may lead to a long-needed revision of this ideal of a “rules-based international order” and its dubious foundational assumptions.

American president Woodrow Wilson in his Fourteen Points and speeches during World War I articulated these ideals. In 1918 he told Congress, “National aspirations must be accepted; peoples may now be dominated only by their own consent.” This principle perforce was opposed to colonial empires, as Wilson made clear in the Fourteen Points: “The day of conquest and aggrandizement is gone by, which makes it possible for every nation whose purposes are consistent with justice and the peace of the world to avow now or at any other time the objects it has in view.”

Of course, as we’ve seen over the past century, what the great diversity of global peoples and cultures mean by “justice” differs considerably, especially regarding the use of force to realize national ambitions at the expense of other nations. Such ideals have been vulnerable as well to the duplicitous diplomacy, propaganda, and aggression of ambitious states. Hitler brilliantly turned this ideal against its champions like France and England during the Sudetenland crisis of September, 1938. After all, didn’t the 3 million alleged ethnic Germans stranded in the new state of Czechoslovakia after the war deserve their “national aspirations” to be “accepted”? Why should they, as Reich Minister of Propaganda Joseph Goebbels lied during the crisis, have to tolerate the “brutal treatment of women and children of German blood” at the hands of alien Czechs?

Biden’s Political Myopia Endangering Europe: Allow the EastMed Pipeline by Burak Bekdil

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18281/biden-europe-eastmed-pipeline

Biden surprised EastMed partners by abruptly withdrawing U.S. support for the pipeline on January 9, thereby effectively killing the project, preventing a diversified supply of energy to Europe, and further assuring even greater revenues for Russia and its war machine.

“The Biden Administration’s actions in this matter are particularly objectionable and hypocritical in light of its tacit approval of Russia’s Nord Stream pipeline, which will only deepen Europe’s energy dependence on a volatile adversary.” — U.S. Representative Gus Bilirakis, January 24, 2022.

As Biden was busy undercutting three staunch U.S. allies in the Mediterranean [Cyprus, Israel and Greece] to appease Erdoğan and a fantasy of “green energy” — that is years from being either ready or affordable — to appease America’s Democrat Party, Ankara would once again prove to be only a part-time Western ally.

“During the vote [against Russia]… Turkey decided to abstain,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said. “We don’t want to break off the dialogue with Russia.”

Biden should immediately reverse his decision and permit the EastMed pipeline.

In December 2019, Biden had described Erdoğan as an autocrat and promised to empower Turkey’s opposition parties through democratic processes. Was that a joke, or is Biden a crypto-fan of Erdoğan?

Once again U.S. President Joe Biden’s strategic miscalculation is coming with a strategic cost: appeasing NATO’s pro-Putin, part-time ally Turkey and jeopardizing Europe’s energy security.