RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/01/why-joe-biden-should-leverage-the-abraham-accords-to-bring-stability-to-the-middle-east/

This week’s announcement that a bipartisan group of House and Senate members have created an Abraham Accords Caucus to encourage more Arab-Israeli normalization agreements reminds us that the accords have the potential to reshape the region’s politics, economics, diplomacy, and military relationships.

The question is whether, in the months to come, the Biden administration will view the accords as an opportunity to promote America’s regional interests or as a distraction from its other challenges.

The accords – the U.S.-brokered normalization agreements that Israel signed with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in late 2020 and subsequently with Morocco – are having a noticeable positive impact on the nations involved and, as a result, are raising prospects for wider Israeli-Arab peace.

Airlines are flying back and forth from Israel to those Arab states, tourism and people-to-people exchanges are flourishing, and trade between Israel and the UAE, in particular, is soaring. In recent months, Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid attended the opening of Israel’s new embassy in Manama; Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett visited UAE Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi; Israel and Morocco signed an agreement to nourish security cooperation; and the UAE and Bahrain joined the United States and Israel in a naval exercise in the Red Sea.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18134/responding-to-chinese-diplomatic-and-economic

The UAE is a staunch ally of the U.S. as well as home to a major joint U.S./UAE military installation. The UAE, demonstrating extraordinary leadership by His Highness Mohammed bin Zayed Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and his outstanding advisors, was also the first Muslim country to sign on to the Abraham Accords, and to initiate a truly warm peace between Muslim states and Israel after years of disputes had destabilized the region. The UAE, in addition, was the first Arab country to send troops to Afghanistan alongside the U.S. and to provide significant assistance when the U.S. withdrew from there in 2021.

National security cannot be compromised and diplomatic relations must be defended…. The “Monitoring China-UAE Cooperation Act,” is, alas, a woefully misguided way to go about it. Congress may try to claim that it is trying to protect our national security against China’s espionage and influence operations, but triggering friction against strong allies can end up delivering them into the hands of our adversaries – as our adversaries doubtless wish.

Sadly, this Act is profoundly counterproductive….Most importantly, any new requirements would respect our friends and allies. Legislation highlighting a single specific country can only be perceived by that country as an insult, an affront. Whether it is in the economic or national security arena, the business of diplomacy is improving relationships, not damaging them.

This is a global problem, not unique to one country. China is trying to install its companies’ products all over the globe. Some might even call China’s aggressive push on 5G a pandemic.

Rather than assaulting allies, and instead of clinging to a one-size-fits-all solution, the U.S. might craft legislation that would require the Director of National Intelligence to adjust requirements based on the relationship that the U.S. has with various countries….The DNI would design a global system that is flexible enough to reflect the complex network of relationships that the U.S. has around the world. No two are exactly the same.

China is the threat, not our allies.

Legislation recently introduced in Congress purportedly seeks to confront China’s growing global aggression on a broad range of fronts. While that goal is certainly urgent and important goal, regrettably, in reality,this document appears largely a pretext for attacking one of America’s most impressive allies, the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-china-bid-empire-colonialism-ukraine-taiwan-imperial-invasion-qing-dynasty-soviet-union-romanov-11642111334?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

Intellectuals can’t stop denouncing the West for its legacy of imperialism. But the imperialism on the march today is in the East. Russia and China are determined to consume Ukraine and Taiwan, legacies of the Romanov and Qing dynasties respectively, into the latest versions of their historical empires. Technology has intensified this struggle for imperial geography. Great-power war has become entirely imaginable because of the reduced emphasis on thermonuclear bombs in an era of hypersonic missiles, automated weapons systems, and information warfare. Russia and China demonstrate that the struggle for empire has rarely had such nerve-racking stakes.

The notion that we can play Russia off against China—as the Nixon administration played China off against the Soviet Union—is a fantasy. President Biden’s reward for giving up opposition to Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany has been the advance of nearly 100,000 Russian troops to the Ukrainian border area. National security adviser Henry Kissinger’s secret 1971 visit to Beijing occurred in the context of dramatic military tensions on the Chinese-Soviet frontier. China was in desperate need of U.S. help. Russia today has no such need.

True, the Chinese are making large-scale economic advances in formerly Soviet Central Asia, as well as providing security assistance to the Muslim republics there. But Russian President Vladimir Putin has calculated that China, a fellow authoritarian regime, isn’t a threat to his rule in the way the West is. (Indeed, Mr. Putin easily moved antiriot police into Kazakhstan, a place that the Russian empire settled with peasants from Russia and Ukraine in the 19th and early 20th centuries.) He has little need to line up with the West to balance against China.

Rather the reverse: Mr. Putin needs China to balance against the West. Since it is the West, in his view, that has helped install a hostile regime in Ukraine, whose border is less than 300 miles from Moscow, and would like to install a similarly hostile and democratic regime in Belarus, also relatively close to the Russian capital. What we see as potential or fledgling democratic states, Mr. Putin sees as vital parts of the former Soviet Union, a great power whose sprawling territory was based on czarist imperial conquests. While Ukraine was the birthplace of Kyivan Rus, it was also forcibly absorbed inside the czarist empire in the late 18th century, only to declare independence in 1918, before the Soviet conquest.

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/01/if_the_us_and_russia_are_implacable_foes_then_all_lines_of_inquiry_lead_to_nato.html

In 1961, as a young academic Henry Kissinger had an opportunity to interview President Harry Truman. He asked the former president what in his presidency had made him most proud.

Truman replied, “That we totally defeated our enemies and then brought them back to the community of nations.”

Unfortunately, the U.S. chose not to emulate Truman’s achievement in the years that followed. With the disintegration of the Warsaw Pact, the military threat to Western Europe had ended, but NATO alliance did not disband itself. Mission accomplished was not good news for the military alliance — it needed new enemies and a new mission for self-preservation.

Indeed, NATO had no difficulty adjusting to the emerging world order. A new enemy was invented — Russia was to be treated as a descendant of the “evil empire.” The concept of an alliance was quietly converted into a doctrine of collective security.  The difference is that while alliances are aimed at a specific threat and define the obligation of each partner in case of belligerency, collective security is an ambiguous concept that defines no specific threat and is designed to resist any aggression anywhere in the world. In this new mission, NATO equated peace and security with expanding democratic gains and the proliferation of American values.

In conformance with a new disposition, in the exultant atmosphere of the end of the Cold War, when Russia’s executive power was in a state of paralysis and its military in a state of despair, NATO hastily extended membership to the countries of former Soviet satellite orbit. The projection of a hostile military alliance eastward to within several hundred miles of Moscow could not be long tolerated by Russia irrespective invocations of goodwill.

After the restoration of her economy and years of heavy investment into the modernization of its armed forces, Russia feels strong enough to confront what she considers a serious threat to her security.

Putin proclaimed his strategy, which was akin to a Russified Monroe Doctrine. It aimed to reassert Russian hegemony around its perimeter, or what Russia has long called its “near abroad.” 

Russia’s fear is not unfounded. “If you know a country’s geography, you can understand and predict its foreign policy,” said Napoleon.

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/01/ifthen_is_no_policy_for_dealing_with_russia_.html

Russia has embarked upon a series of threatening activities ostensibly directed at Ukraine, but that in fact could culminate in enormous and disastrous military and political damage to NATO. Those same threatening activities might also be used by Russia as a lever to get the West to deliver what President Vladimir Putin wants without military action. We don’t know yet which is the Russian endgame, and it is conceivable that they don’t yet either.

Which makes it foolish in the extreme to have an “if/then” policy. “If/then” is transactional — If I’m nice to you, you should be nice to me; if you misbehave, I will impose consequences on you. If/then relies on two things — first, that your adversary believes you and further, that he fears the consequences. This works from parent to child. But with a competent adversary, there is a third requirement — that the consequences he can inflict on you are within your tolerance.

How is it working?

President Joe Biden removed sanctions from the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, allowing Russia to finish the supply line for more Russian gas to Europe and cut Ukraine out as the middleman. In return, Russia has added troops to the border of Ukraine; there appear to be upwards of 70,000 now. In December, the G7 ministers adopted a more threatening tone. “Russia should be in no doubt that further military aggression against Ukraine would have massive consequences and severe cost in response.” In January, Secretary of State Antony Blinken sounded firm. “We’ve offered (Putin) two paths forward. One is through diplomacy and dialogue; the other is through deterrence and massive consequences for Russia if it renews its aggression against Ukraine. And we’re about to test the proposition of which path President Putin wants to take.” 

He was not explicit about the nature of the consequences — the Ukrainians clearly are hoping for a NATO military response, but for many reasons, including that NATO has not even discussed such an option, it is unlikely. The new German foreign minister tipped NATO’s hand that the response will be economic when she said, “Further military escalation wouldn’t bring Ukraine greater security.”

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18040/biden-budget-china-threat

There is nothing [in the US budget] specifically targeting and countering the Chinese biowarfare threat and resultant global pandemic that has seized the world for nearly two years. Nothing. Instead, there is specific reference to military crisis communications – the sort Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Mark Milley clearly exercised on October 20, 2020 when he told the Chinese military chief: “General Li, you and I have known each other for now five years. If we’re going to attack, I’m going to call you ahead of time. It’s not going to be a surprise.” General Milley has yet to be indicted.

There are other examples of outrageous programs and wild spending –– on everything from “desert fish” to Critical Race Theory indoctrination programs across all departments and levels of government.

Meanwhile, China surges ahead with military and technical advances — at a pace that has caught the US government by surprise. China’s hypersonic missile test in October 2021 seems to have caught the Pentagon flat-footed. Hypersonic missiles travel at around 3,800 mph and higher, and are ideal for evading traditional missile detection and defense systems. China is also ready to launch its first “blue water” aircraft carrier — giving it the ability to project air and sea power around the globe.

Just recently, the Wall Street Journal reported that China is seeking its first military base on the Atlantic Ocean.

The Biden administration is spending American taxpayers’ dollars recklessly on “tree equity” programs

Reading Douglas MacArthur: American Warrior, one is reminded of how FDR grossly ignored the looming threat from Japan and how Biden ignores China’s aggression today.

Which is more urgent?: Does the US need a nearly $5 trillion budget for an immediate deterrence to China’s biowarfare and military buildup, or for climate change and green programs? And are those climate change and green programs largely paybacks to campaign donors and to China?

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18123/arabs-biden-iran-policy

The Biden administration’s position “raises a question mark about the seriousness of American efforts to save the world from Iranian threats…. The Iranian regime insists on adopting, supporting and arming terrorist entities in order to continue committing crimes and violations that destabilize the security and stability…in the region.” — Al-Yaum, Saudi Arabia, December 23, 2022.

“Iran’s interventions in neighboring countries… Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, Bahrain and Kuwait, have become clear and tangible….” — Adnan Salman, Iraqi military expert, Azzaman, January 8, 2022.

Iran boasted that it occupies four Arab capitals: Baghdad, Beirut, Sana’a and Damascus. “The Iranians have turned these Arab capitals into bases for its armed militias, providing them with money, weapons and everything they need to assert Iran’s hegemony over the region.” —Abdel Aziz Khamis, Saudi writer and political analyst, Sky News Arabia, January 6, 2022.

“The Ansar Allah group in Yemen [the Houthis], Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Hezbollah Brigades and Sayed al-Shuhada Brigades and other gangs in Iraq, as well as other brutal gangs in the Syrian and Palestinian territories, have served as tools that allowed Tehran to interfere in the affairs of these countries and threaten others.” — Abdel Aziz Khamis, Sky News Arabia, January 6, 2022.

“What Iran is doing is tantamount to an open war against the Arabs.” — Saleh Al-Qallab, former Jordanian minister of information, Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, January 6, 2020.

“Iran is interfering in the region with the aim of dominating it…. The current Lebanese model of Iran’s hegemony through Hezbollah is the model that Iran aspires to and plans for in all the Arab countries.” — Former Kuwaiti Minister of Information and Culture Saad Bin Tefla Al-Ajami, Independentarabia.com, December 31, 2021.

The Biden administration refuses to disclose information about the negotiations that could “pose grave dangers” to the US. “The Biden administration argues that making this information available may harm American national security and reveal intelligence sources. This excuse is flimsy and weak. Here is the clear truth: the weak Biden administration is striving to reach an agreement [with Iran] at any cost to beautify its image in front of the Americans.” — Emil Amin, Egyptian writer, Al-Arabiya, January 7, 2022.

These Arabs, in short, are saying that they view Iran and the United States, and not Israel, as the major threats to their security and stability.

It now remains to be seen whether the Biden administration and the other parties negotiating with the mullahs will heed the voices coming from the Arab world — or continue to allow the mullahs to hoodwink them by having the US sanctions lifted while Tehran continues to advance its plans to obtain nuclear weapons and extend its control to more Arab countries.

Syrian-born TV host Faisal Al-Kasim recently asked his 5.9 million followers on Twitter the following: “Which is better, Israel’s reputation or Iran’s reputation in the [Middle East] region?” The result of the poll showed that 74.8% viewed Israel as having a better reputation as opposed to 25.2% in favor of Iran.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/american-fecklessness-fed-putin-ukraine-troops-border-russia-energy-gas-poland-western-europe-germany-france-invasion-biden-11641832674?mod=opinion_lead_pos6

America’s current crisis with Russia over Ukraine is a logical outcome of the Biden administration’s failed European policy and misguided focus on consensus. This standoff, which may culminate in January with concessions to Moscow, is the product of five basic problems.

First and most glaring, the administration has treated diplomacy with Western Europe as an end in itself. America’s current fetish for agreement with Berlin and Paris, rather than transactional diplomacy, means that on issue after issue the Germans and French can insist on their own policy views in exchange for consensus. For countries that don’t view Russia’s military buildup with sufficient alarm, consensus means words rather than action. The European Union has failed to draft sanctions on Russia even as the crisis enters its third month. The Germans are reportedly blocking the North Atlantic Treaty Organization from selling lethal aid to Ukraine. And Germany was insistent on completing Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will effectively isolate Ukraine.

Moscow can be sure that the U.S. won’t act on its own militarily to help Ukraine, because the Biden administration has promised it won’t. Credible uncertainty about the likelihood of U.S. action would have been a genuine deterrent to Moscow’s escalation of this crisis. If Ukraine is a vital American interest, Washington must leave the Russians guessing whether America will commit its own forces, especially since European diplomacy has borne so little fruit.

Second, American deterrence has collapsed in the wake of the Afghanistan fiasco, which demoralized our friends and energized our adversaries. There is no reason Russia should believe that Mr. Biden’s administration credibly threatens military action. Afghanistan cheapened every promise the U.S. has made, including those to NATO and the European states in Russia’s shadow.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-adversaries-size-up-biden-worldview-russia-china-south-asia-sanctions-xi-democracy-taiwan-hong-kong-asean-india-11641846956?mod=opinion_featst_pos1

Last week Russian troops fanned out across Kazakhstan; the Myanmar junta sentenced Aung San Suu Kyi to four more years in prison; and China transferred a senior official from Xinjiang to lead the People’s Liberation Army’s garrison in Hong Kong. Two things are clear. First, America’s geopolitical adversaries aren’t impressed by the Biden administration. Second, the administration’s attempts to make a priority of human rights and democracy have so far failed to reverse or even to slow the retreat of democracy around the world.

The Biden administration’s political fragility at home is partly to blame. But adversaries are watching more than American domestic politics; they see incoherence in American policy. The administration has signaled that balancing China in the Indo-Pacific, the promotion of democracy and climate policy are its overriding foreign-policy priorities. Our adversaries—and some of our friends—think that these goals can’t be pursued successfully at the same time. They conclude that American policy focused on incompatible objectives will ultimately fail.

Take Asia. There is no way to counter China’s regional ambitions without solidifying the American position in Southeast Asia. Yet here President Biden’s prime geopolitical goal of balancing China runs counter to his goal of democracy promotion. So far, there aren’t many signs that the administration is handling this tension effectively.

Case in point: As work on what looks like an important Chinese naval base in Cambodia continues, the U.S. is busy slapping sanctions on Cambodia’s armed forces and politicians. American sanctions of this type typically irritate their targets without producing the desired changes in behavior. Cambodian Premier Hun Sen seems unmoved by American sanctions and lectures. He is using his country’s one-year presidency of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean, to undercut America’s policy of isolating the junta in Myanmar.