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FOREIGN POLICY

Peace-processing Like it’s 1993 Note to Dennis Ross: The world has changed since the signing of the Oslo Accords. Shoshana Bryen

https://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/insight/

In a meeting in May with then-Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Joe Biden’s Secretary of State Antony Blinken outlined the Biden administration priority “to continue to rebuild our relationship with the Palestinian people and the Palestinian Authority.” Now, after announcing it wants to open a U.S. consulate in Jerusalem for the Palestinians, come reports that the administration is working on a plan for a Palestinian “unity government” of Hamas and Fatah to negotiate the “two-state solution” with Israel.

Veteran “peace processor” Dennis Ross wrote the long rationale, including his belief that Israel has to bow in the direction of the anti-Israel progressive “Squad” and “woke” on Capitol Hill:

“Israel cannot ignore the Palestinian issue for its own reasons—the Palestinians aren’t going anywhere. But with an evolving political landscape in the U.S., Israel needs to show it is not deepening occupation and is not acting in a way that makes a two-state outcome impossible, even as an option. Drifting toward a one-state outcome in which Palestinians will demand one person, one vote is certain to extend the influence of progressives far beyond where it stands today … . Israel must also deal with the reality that how it approaches the Palestinians will affect how it is seen in the U.S.”  Dennis Ross

Ross also notes that the Palestinians are “divided and show neither the inclination nor capability to adjust any of their positions.” He doesn’t elaborate, and that is his mistake. Hamas and Fatah have been fighting a bloody civil war since 2007—Hamas’s rocket war in May was aimed as much as establishing itself as the more powerful Palestinian faction as it was at Israel. Constructive engagement between Hamas and Fatah is a fantasy.

Biden administration letting America’s nuclear superiority slip through our fingers By Francis P. Sempa

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2021/11/biden_administration_letting_americas_nuclear_superiority_slip_through_our_fingers.html

The Pentagon’s annual report on China’s military included a section on the PLA’s nuclear buildup.  The report states that the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) “is developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that will significantly improve its nuclear-capable missile forces.”  Nuclear warhead production has increased.  At least three new ICBM silo fields are being constructed, “which will cumulatively contain hundreds of new ICBM silos.”  The PLARF’s road-mobile DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBMs) force is growing.

China plans to “modernize, diversify, and expand its nuclear forces,” including land, sea, and air-based platforms (the triad), according to the report.  The Pentagon estimates that by 2027, the PLARF will have at least 700 deliverable nuclear warheads and at least 1,000 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2030.  China’s ICBM force consists of CSS-10 Mod 2 missiles with a range of 11,200 kilometers, DF-41 missiles that can strike targets 12,000 kilometers away, and CSS-4 Mod 2 and Mod 3 missiles with a maximum range of 13,000 kilometers.  With these three missile types, China can deliver nuclear warheads to the entire continental United States, Alaska, and Hawaii.  Some of these missiles have MIRV capability, meaning they can deliver multiple warheads to multiple targets.

China’s nuclear weapons expansion has been characterized by the head of U.S. Strategic Command as “breathtaking,” a “strategic breakout” designed to give China a “coercive capability” to deter the U.S. from defending its allies against Chinese aggression.  Meanwhile, Russia is engaged in its own nuclear buildup, and it may eventually outnumber the U.S. in warheads by ten to one.  And China and Russia have gradually become strategic allies as both seek to undermine America’s role as the organizer of the liberal world order.

China claims Biden denounced ‘Taiwan independence,’ but warns US is ‘playing with fire’ Interpretation differences on one-China policy could mean more trouble in South China Sea :Caitlin McFall

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/china-biden-denounced-taiwan-independence-warns-us-playing-fire

China claimed Tuesday that President Biden denounced Taiwanese independence from the communist nation, but warned the U.S. is “playing with fire” in the South China Sea.

The new round of threats arose following an hours-long virtual summit between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping that marked the most extensive talks the world leaders have engaged in since Biden took office.

In a read-out following the talks, Chinese officials said Biden reiterated U.S. support for the one-China policy and claimed the U.S. president “does not support ‘Taiwan independence’.”

Taiwan and China have shared a complex history since the government of the Republic of China (ROC) relocated to the island in the western Pacific in 1949 amid conflict with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). 

Taiwan identifies as a sovereign nation, but it is officially recognized by China, the United Nations and the U.S. as part of the one-China policy. 

China made it clear Tuesday that it has every intention of bringing the island under “complete reunification” with mainland China and threatened action if forces attempt to stop this.

“Should the separatist forces for ‘Taiwan independence’ provoke us, force our hands or even cross the red line, we will be compelled to take resolute measures,” the readout said. “On this question bearing on China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, there is no room for compromise.”

The U.S. and its western allies have backed the security of Taiwan and reports have shown the U.S. is working to shore up defenses in the Indo-Pacific as Chinese aggression in the region escalates. 

The White House did not contradict China’s claim that the U.S. continues to acknowledge the one-China principle, but the tone was far less placatory.

Biden’s Dirty Deal With the Taliban Biden abandoned Americans to protect his deal with the Taliban. The deal isn’t over yet. Daniel Greenfield

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2021/11/bidens-dirty-deal-taliban-national-security-threat-daniel-greenfield/

Every week new revelations arrive about the scale of Biden’s betrayal in Afghanistan. After months of claiming that only a few hundred Americans had been abandoned behind enemy lines, the real numbers are still growing. Shocking reports continue to come to light including a military memo which claims that over a hundred family members of servicemen may still be trapped under Taliban rule.

Biden and his brass promised an accounting, but have offered only lies and excuses. Congressional hearings have produced nothing except cable news theater. While the Taliban throw parades showing off captured American military equipment, the Biden administration is dispatching $144 million in aid.

With more to come.

The humiliating collapse in Afghanistan is not a mystery. It was the product of a deliberate strategy to maintain relations with the Taliban at any cost. Every step of the disaster was really a betrayal.

Why did the Biden administration abandon Bagram Air Base and the nearby prison facility holding thousands of Taliban, Al Qaeda, and ISIS-K prisoners without notifying the Afghans?

When the Taliban repeatedly violated their agreement to stop the violence, why did the Biden administration still insist on keeping our side of the agreement, withdrawing by the deadline even if it meant leaving Americans behind?

As the Taliban approached Kabul, why was the Biden administration trying to cut a deal to provide a sizable cash delivery if the Taliban included the existing government in its administration?

What to Expect from the Biden-Xi Meeting – And It’s Not Good by Pete Hoekstra

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17942/biden-xi-meeting

With the U.S. suffering significant inflation, and with supply chain disruptions identified as one of the causes, expect little pressure on China to address intellectual property theft, currency manipulation, unfair Chinese government support in distorting markets, or disruptive Chinese trade barriers. The bias will be to put a happy face on this relationship.

We certainly can hope for Biden to put up a strong position on the COVID-19 pandemic. More than 750,000 Americans are dead…. America, and the world need answers. China needs to be held accountable.

One can only fear where this goes if the U.S. does not confront China. It is unlikely we will see any leadership from Europe on this issue; European leaders seemed determined to forge closer economic ties with China, which will doubtless use these revenues for bulking up its military to “take over the world.” It is either Biden or nobody, and nobody seems to have the upper hand.

An even worse potential outcome on the COVID-19 pandemic issue may be a gauzy statement along the lines that … the U.S. and China will closely cooperate on addressing the current situation…. Even worse, we will form the core of a new global organization to prepare for, confront, and combat any potential future pandemics.

Heaven help us if this is the outcome.

Here is what we likely can expect from the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Communist China’s President Xi Jinping. Climate change, yes. Human rights, not so much. Throw in a little trade but take out all references to the Wuhan-origin of the coronavirus pandemic. This will be a summit that majors in minors. It will have significance, but only because of what it fails to do rather than what it does.

Why Biden’s Palestinian Policies Will Not Bring Peace by Khaled Abu Toameh

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17909/why-biden-palestinian-policies-will-not-bring

The Biden administration is apparently hoping that engaging Abbas would undermine Hamas and other Palestinian extremists and embolden “moderate” Palestinians who are prepared to make peace with Israel and renounce violence.

The results of the polls, however, show that the Palestinian public is moving in precisely the opposite direction – towards more extremism and disillusionment with the PA leadership.

Referring to the peace process with Israel, 68% of the Palestinians said that they oppose a return to negotiations with Israel led by the US under the Biden administration.

The millions of dollars that the Biden administration is pouring on the Palestinians will not make them more moderate and encourage them to abandon violence and terrorism. There is only one way to deradicalize the Palestinians: halt the ongoing campaign to delegitimize Israel and demonize Jews.

It is the catastrophic failure to hold Abbas and the PA to account for their incitement against Israel and for their corruption that is emboldening Hamas and others who seek to destroy Israel.

The Biden administration’s policy of engaging with and strengthening the Palestinian Authority (PA) has suffered a setback: most Palestinians continue to express dissatisfaction with the performance of PA President Mahmoud Abbas and demand his resignation.

The Biden administration’s hope of reviving the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians has also suffered another blow: a majority of Palestinians remain opposed to returning to negotiations with Israel under the leadership of the US. In addition, half the Palestinian public favor a return to an armed struggle Israel.

China and the Crisis Presidency of Joe Biden by Pete Hoekstra

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17910/china-biden-crisis-presidency

How does a president who is struggling on so many fronts lead a nation against China, its biggest geostrategic competitor? China’s military buildup, the ongoing genocide against the Uyghurs, America and the West’s over-reliance on China in the supply chain, Chinese aggression against Taiwan and in the South China Sea, and China’s aggression against India along the common land border are all pressing issues that are only getting worse.

The Chinese communists have made clear in word and deed, however, including their Belt and Road Initiative and Made in China policies, that they have every intention of knocking-off America as global leader and supplanting the West in global standing.

[I]n 2008 Russia invaded the Republic of Georgia. European Union leaders offered a pitifully limited response and Russia faced very few negative reactions from either the EU or the U.S. But there were consequences. Many believe this painfully mild answer was an indicator to Russia that it could employ a more militaristic approach in areas of previous Russian influence. Six years after its invasion of Georgia, Russia invaded Ukraine, annexing Crimea and occupying parts of the Donbas region. The lesson seems clear and quite literal — give a tyrannical country an inch and it will take as many other countries as it can.

[F]or global stability and the standing of the United Sates, it is time for the president to draw a bright red line signaling to the Chinese communists the limits of what they can do and where they can go.

Less than a year in and Joe Biden’s presidency is beset by crises. Domestically, his increasingly unpopular agenda has been stalled by his own political party in Congress. On the international front, the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle continues to reverberate along with Europe’s growing frustration in dealing with the administration. Even on matters where we can agree, such as the submarine deal and our alliance with the Australia and the United Kingdom to counter China, the announcement was so badly handled it became just another friction point in U.S.-European relations. Then there is China itself. From the origins of COVID to its recent hypersonic missile test — an event the Pentagon’s top general Mark Milley concedes was a near “Sputnik moment” — and China’s ability to crush all US satellites as “debris,” the challenges between the U.S. and China only continue to grow.

Jerusalem Consulate: A Nail in the Coffin of Peace by Richard Kemp

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17872/us-consulate-jerusalem

This may seem like just another diplomatic facility to issue visas, promote trade and take care of US citizens, with no greater consequence than the US consulate in Edinburgh, UK. But it is far more than a mere office for paper-shuffling diplomats. It amounts to a de facto US embassy to the Palestinians on Israeli territory. Its true purpose is to undermine Israeli sovereignty in its own capital city and will jeopardise future prospects for peace between Israel and Palestinian Arabs.

As well as betraying Israel, Biden’s irresponsible diplomatic signalling — which also appeases his hard-left supporters — is a betrayal of the Palestinian people. They have suffered too long and too hard under the hostility of their leadership, which has consistently refused to entertain all proposals for peace with Israel that could lead to the establishment of their own state.

Successive Palestinian leaders have been encouraged in their intransigence by the US and Europe who have for decades extracted concession after concession from Israel while Palestinians make none.

The intended consulate in Israel’s capital will… encourage greater support for Hamas, the terrorist group that rules Gaza….

That this is not mere bureaucratic reshuffling can also be understood from the Biden administration’s determination to do it in the face of Israeli government opposition and despite it potentially breaching Israel’s Basic Law, US law and the 1963 Vienna Convention, which does not allow a consulate to be opened without host nation consent.

In addition, opening a consulate in the same city as an existing embassy — an unprecedented move — reinforces its immense political significance. Especially as there is no practical purpose for the new facility, with the embassy already incorporating a department devoted exclusively to Palestinian affairs.

Following his validation in Afghanistan of this damning indictment, Biden now has a chance at last to get something right by abandoning his plan to undermine a close ally, reduce the prospects of peace and sentence the Palestinian people to more decades of suffering.

Only a few months ago, US President Joe Biden betrayed a US ally by withdrawing forces from Afghanistan, bringing down the government in Kabul and consigning the country to the bitter depredations of Taliban terrorists. Now he is winding up to betray another, much closer ally — Israel.

Biden plans to open a US consulate in Jerusalem. This may seem like just another diplomatic facility to issue visas, promote trade and take care of US citizens, with no greater consequence than the US consulate in Edinburgh, UK. But it is far more than a mere office for paper-shuffling diplomats. It amounts to a de facto US embassy to the Palestinians on Israeli territory. Its true purpose is to undermine Israeli sovereignty in its own capital city and will jeopardise future prospects for peace between Israel and Palestinian Arabs.

Why Is America Financing the Chinese War Machine? by Lawrence Kadish

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17891/financing-china-war-machine

How did the Chinese come to possess such prowess? From us.

The Chinese… know that a democracy whose economy is weakened by COVID of a curious origin, a multi-trillion dollar budget that would plunge us into historic debt; a nation staggering under the burden of a possibly enfeebled national leadership, and a military humbled by being ordered off the Afghan battlefield by its commander-in-chief may be a once great country that has lost its way.

Washington needs to pivot and provide appropriate and necessary incentives for businesses to expand our once formidable manufacturing base here in the United States. America has the means, skills, and resources to return to its role as a super exporter, but to do so will also require us to get our economic house in order and freeze our nation’s debt ceiling. An economy that stands on the brink of a multi-trillion dollar self-induced debt makes us vulnerable to a fiscal collapse. Financial discipline will be required if we actually wish to stop our financing of the Chinese war machine.

Historians who have studied the decline and fall of great modern empires must be queasy these days.

Many have chronicled how a once mighty China lost its sovereignty to colonial powers during the early years of the 20th Century. Their enfeebled empress and a humbled military were swept aside by a European coalition of nations only to find that China was to become the bloody prize of Japanese generals whose forces raped and massacred their way to Beijing.

Blinken Seems Intent on Sparking a Crisis Over Jerusalem The State Department wants to open a consulate to the Palestinians there despite Israel’s objections.By Eugene Kontorovich

https://www.wsj.com/articles/blinken-biden-foreign-policy-crisis-over-jerusalem-embassy-consulate-israel-palestine-11635195523?mod=opinion_lead_pos6

The biggest diplomatic spat between Israel and the U.S. in recent memory is brewing over the Biden administration’s insistence on opening a consulate to conduct diplomatic relations with the Palestinian Authority and locating it in Israel’s capital, Jerusalem. Despite vociferous Israeli protest, the State Department has repeatedly said it would push forward with opening a consulate anyway, and Secretary Antony Blinken will personally lead the effort.

The U.S. Embassy to Israel is already in Jerusalem, and it has a consular department that provides services to Palestinians. Opening a separate, independent diplomatic mission would undermine a longstanding bipartisan policy of treating Jerusalem as the exclusive capital of Israel.

The consulate plan is a way to undo in part President Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem without paying the political price of fully repudiating a move that had broad support even among Democrats. Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh understands this and recently crowed that Mr. Blinken’s consulate is a stepping stone to a recognition of Palestinian sovereignty in Jerusalem.

Under settled international law, Israel’s consent is required for any diplomatic mission to be opened on its territory. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid and Justice Minister Gideon Saar have all forcefully rejected the idea, as has the opposition Likud party. Jerusalem is one of the few issues that unite Israelis across the political spectrum.

The State Department won’t take no for an answer. After Mr. Lapid made Israel’s opposition clear, Mr. Blinken said: “We’ll be moving forward with the process of opening a consulate as part of deepening of those ties with the Palestinians”—a clear démarche to Jerusalem to acquiesce or face consequences. This contempt for Israel’s government is extraordinary.

When Mr. Trump in 2017 recognized Jerusalem as being in Israel and subsequently moved the U.S. Embassy there, he implemented the Jerusalem Embassy Act of 1995, enacted with massive bipartisan support. That put to rest an absurd and anachronistic U.S. policy that treated Jerusalem as not being located in Israel at all, a legacy of an abortive 1947 U.N. initiative to make it an “international city.”