Displaying posts categorized under

FOREIGN POLICY

The Threat of Iran’s Ayatollahs – Track Record vs. Speculation Ambassador (Ret.) Yoram Ettinger

https://bit.ly/3jxl8ye

US policy-makers who are negotiating a return to the 2015 Iran nuclear accord (JCPOA), should be aware that the most effective predictor of Iran’s future behavior is its past behavior.  Past performance – especially in the highly traditional Middle East – is a tangible and objective basis of assessment, while future behavior is subjective, speculative and fraught with uncertainty.  

Ignoring the systematic and relentless anti-US track record of Iran’s Ayatollahs, since the 1978/79 revolution – which transformed Iran from “the American policeman of the Gulf” to a key epicenter of regional and global subversion, terrorism and wars – would be at the expense of regional and global stability, undermining vital US national security and economic interests.

However, the US Administration seems determined to conclude another accord with Iran, irrespective of Iran’s consistent track record of the fanatical anti-US education system, violation of agreements with the US and the Arab Gulf countries, and horrific violations of human rights and democracy.  Add to that, Iran’s regional and global proliferation of subversion, terrorism, wars, conventional and non-conventional military technologies, and close ties with North Korea, Venezuela, Syria, Afghanistan’s Taliban, Al Qaeda, the Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah, Hamas and additional rogue entities.

US policy-makers consider the Ayatollahs credible partners for negotiation, amenable to peaceful-coexistence and power-sharing with their Arab Gulf States, notwithstanding the aforementioned track record, as well as Iran’s fueling the civil wars in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, the persistent violent attempts by the Shiite Ayatollahs to topple every pro-US Sunni Arab regime, and the entrenchment of Iran’s drug-trafficking and terrorist cells in South and Central America.

Moreover, in order to advance negotiation with Iran, the US has waived the military and regime-change options, which is perceived by the Ayatollahs as weakness, as it would be by any rogue regime, especially in the Middle East.

The “Iran Deal” Soon to Be Resuscitated by Lawrence A. Franklin

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17513/iran-deal-resuscitated

Raisi’s election, “engineered to guarantee his victory,” looks suspiciously like a ploy by Iran’s Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei to terrify the American negotiators into capitulating to Iran’s demands even faster and more recklessly, to avoid negotiating with an opponent more uncompromising than the one with whom they are negotiating at present.

The JCPOA is allegedly designed to prevent, or at least postpone, Iran’s drive for a nuclear weapons capability along with the means to deliver them. Among the deal’s many major drawbacks is that after it expires, Iran can enrich as much uranium to have as many nuclear weapons — and the means to deliver them — as it likes.

Despite signs that the P5+1 negotiating team will subscribe to a re-constituted JCPOA “understanding,” there seems to exist no trust that the Islamic Republic will comply with any agreement. The IAEA’s catalogue of doubts regarding Iran’s compliance with any nuclear safeguards is lengthy.

Based on Iran’s pattern of obstructionism, the impending renewal of the JCPOA does not inspire confidence that the Islamic Republic — even if it verbally agrees, or this time signs a document — will ever be in compliance.

It is also sadly assumed, based on past patterns, that the US, in its eagerness to secure a deal — any deal — will back down when faced with any Iranian demand.

The latest alteration before the Americans trying to revive the “nuclear weapons deal” — known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — with Iran is the carefully staged election this month of Ebrahim Raisi to its presidency. A clerical hardliner known as “the Butcher,” he is responsible for thousands of executions of oppositions leaders, torture and other “ongoing crimes against humanity.”

Raisi’s election, “engineered to guarantee his victory,” looks suspiciously like a ploy by Iran’s Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei to terrify the American negotiators into capitulating to Iran’s demands even faster and more recklessly, to avoid negotiating with an opponent more uncompromising than whomever they are negotiating with at present. Upon his victory, Raisi immediately announced that he will not meet with US President Joe Biden, and that Iran’s “ballistic missile program and its support of regional militias” were “nonnegotiable.”

Rebuild Gaza — why? By Abraham H. Miller

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2021/06/rebuild_gaza__why.html

If the Biden administration wants to rebuild something, there is plenty of need in American cities.

Nearly anyone who follows events in the Middle East believes that the ceasefire imposed on Israel by the Biden administration won’t last more than three or four years, if that long, before Hamas’s Iranian rockets are once again launched from Gaza.

So, why should America be on the hook for rebuilding Gaza when Hamas’s next round of indiscriminate rocket attacks and Israel’s response with tactical air strikes is inevitable?

Since Israel left Gaza in 2005, there have been either major engagements or minor skirmishes almost every year.  The pattern is familiar. Hamas indiscriminately fires Qassam rockets into Israel, kidnaps Israeli soldiers, or organizes a military assault on the border, and Israel responds with artillery, airstrikes, or ground assaults, and sometimes all three.

To call the ensuing ceasefires after those engagements “fragile” is an understatement.  The most recent one will be no different.

Israel agreed to the current ceasefire because of the Biden administration’s pressure. It is no secret that Israel sought to further degrade Hamas’s fighting capabilities but was restrained from doing so. 

Forget About Making Peace with the Islamic World By Victor Sharpe

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2021/06/forget_about_making_peace_with_the_islamic_world.html

The great humorist, Jerome K. Jerome, suggested many years ago that, “… we all love peace, but not peace at any price.”

Peace is only a reality between states that are rational and can in time become friendly towards each other. Today leftists and all those who shout out the vacuous phrase, “peace and justice,” have turned those once noble words into soiled and tarnished rags.

They have become the very folk who, through one of life’s supreme ironies, shout down dissenting voices and thus become guilty of the very violent behavior they claim to oppose. The universities and colleges have become hotbeds of radicalized students who chant slogans of peace and justice yet howl down invited speakers with whom they disagree. Free speech withers on today’s university campus while tenured professors, smiling indulgently, espouse the monolithic message of the Left, which tolerates no disagreement.

That word, “peace” has permeated the democracies for decades and flowed from numerous pulpits. But despite untold forests cut down in order to produce posters, books, banners, placards, and learned tomes calling for peace, there is less peace in the world today and more hypocrites selling it like snake oil peddlers.

On the banks of the East River in New York City stands the Temple of Peace, the huge United Nations building that claims to be its repository, but which in reality is the ultimate Temple to Hypocrisy. The worshippers of “Peace” are the supreme idealists who never abandon their dreams, even if their naïve acts lead them to inadvertently make tyrants stronger and create living nightmares for the very victims for whom they claim they are bringing peace.

If a nation desires peace with its neighbor, but that neighbor implacably rejects peace, then any imposed peace process from outside is nothing more than a handmaiden to futility or worse. The peacemaker often creates a catastrophic erosion of security for the peace-loving nation, which because of its peaceful intentions is the only party that is then leaned upon to make endless and one-sided concessions to a belligerent enemy. Such has been the curse of the peace process for Israel in its attempts to survive relentless Arab and Muslim aggression.

Israel’s leaders have sought peace above all else and considered its attainment with hostile neighbors as the great panacea. But making peace must never be the goal of a nation when confronted by irredeemable enemies who look upon peace with contempt. For almost a century Jews have begged the Arab and Muslim world to agree to a lasting peace in the Middle East. They have offered what no other nation or people would dream of offering to a belligerent. But they have received nothing, for the simple reason that the Muslim Arab is only interested in a limited ceasefire so as to continue aggression against the Jews as soon as he feels strong enough. In this, he follows the example of Islam’s founder, Mohammed.

The delusional faith in reason of the liberal intellectual As the west’s enemies ratchet up their aggression, the more determined the Biden administration becomes to appease them Melanie Phillips

https://melaniephillips.substack.com/p/the-delusional-faith-in-reason-of?token

Anyone who imagines that the increasingly aggressive behaviour of the Iranian regime will force US President Joe Biden to abandon his attempted revival of the lethal 2015 nuclear deal is almost certainly in for a rude awakening.

The more Iran doubles down on its aggression, the more determined the Biden administration becomes to seal the deal.

Last week, Ebrahim Raisi was elected as Iran’s president. Raisi is a hardliner who is expected to resist any compromise over the deal and to go full steam ahead with the terrorist state’s ballistic-missile programme, its regional aggression and its development of nuclear weapons.

Yet as reported in The New York Times, the Bidenites say this makes the deal even more promising. This is because a) the six-week window before Raisi takes office enables the deal to be completed; b) if the ensuing sanctions relief doesn’t rescue the economy, Iran’s so-called moderates currently in power would take the blame; and c) if the economy recovers, Raisi can take the credit.

This all-purpose gibberish is designed to mask the obvious fact that the Biden administration has been gagging for this deal from the moment it took office and will allow absolutely nothing to derail it.

Indeed, the word this week from the chief of staff to the current Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, was that Washington has agreed to lift about 1,040 sanctions imposed during the Trump era. This is despite the fact that Iran has reportedly not budged by one iota from its demands. So the United States has simply capitulated.

Nor is this rush to appease those who continue to ramp up their aggression confined to Iran. In March, the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, was humiliated by two of China’s top diplomats. When he unwisely met them in Anchorage, they took the opportunity to lecture and insult him.

Yet according to National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, the administration now wants to begin a new round of “engaging” China. This is also despite increasing suspicions that Covid-19 originated in the Wuhan Institute of Virology and that China has lied through its teeth about the pandemic calamity it has visited upon the world.

And then there are the Palestinians, with whom the Bidenites have now restored funding and diplomatic ties despite the Palestinian Authority’s continued incitement against Israel and “pay-for-slay” support for terrorism.

So what can explain the Biden administration’s increasingly lethal perversity?

Biden Never Learns: He Still Wants to Talk to China by Gordon G. Chang

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17488/biden-china-engagement

Call this another Biden debacle in the making.

China, it is evident, is now in no mood for substantive discussions, other than, of course, for the purpose of accepting America’s surrender.

American leaders, administration in and administration out, think it is important to meet face-to-face with adversaries, that they can somehow reason with them. That view is naïve, arrogant, and almost always incorrect. Chinese leaders of the communist variety often talk of “friendship” but are ruthlessly pragmatic, and often just ruthless. For them, personal feelings have no value in relations with other states.

Personal diplomacy with Beijing is counterproductive: Americans chase after the Chinese and the Chinese take advantage of this eagerness. The incessant pursuit of Beijing makes America, in the eyes of the Chinese regime, an easy mark.

If the reports about Dong are accurate, Biden should be now talking about imposing the most severe costs on China, not chasing after Xi Jinping to begin a conversation. America should, among other things, cut trade, end investment, prohibit technical cooperation, perhaps stop all travel altogether. Biden definitely should close China’s remaining four consulates in the U.S. and send virtually all Chinese embassy officials home. The President should announce it is the policy of the United States to end communist rule in China.

Chinese officials took Canadian hostages, known as “the two Michaels,” in December 2018 and have held them since because they knew Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would do nothing about it. The Chinese believed Trudeau would do nothing because he had spent his career desperately trying to court China. — Charles Burton of the Ottawa-based Macdonald-Laurier Institute.

So, President Biden, stop turning the other cheek and start performing your most fundamental constitutional duty: Protecting America from foreign enemies.

President Joe Biden, according to National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, wants to begin a new round of “engaging” China.

Call this another Biden debacle in the making.

‘Phase Two’ Iran Talks Go Kaput The Biden team continues to misjudge Tehran at every turn.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/phase-two-iran-talks-go-kaput-11624314762?mod=opinion_lead_pos2

So much for “phase two” of the Iran nuclear talks. Iran’s president-elect Ebrahim Raisi won’t take office until August, but on Monday he announced his government won’t negotiate over ballistic missiles or its support for proxies destabilizing the Middle East.

The Biden Administration has promoted the phase two idea as something that would follow its desired return to the 2015 nuclear accord. “Longer and stronger” was Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s phrase. The 2015 deal ignored Iran’s ballistic missiles, which the country continues to develop. And the deal said nothing about Iran’s malign support for militias in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Hamas in Gaza.

Counting on a follow-on deal was always dubious. Iran wants back into the 2015 deal so the U.S. will lift President Trump’s sanctions and it can gain access to tens of billions of dollars in trade revenue and investment. Once the sanctions leverage is gone, why would Iran make any other concessions?

On Monday Mr. Raisi made that position official. He said sanctions relief is “central to our foreign policy” and called on the U.S. “to lift all oppressive sanctions against Iran.” He also ruled out meeting with President Biden and said Iran’s ballistic-missile program and regional imperialism are “non-negotiable.”

The Biden Administration’s Iran Policy: All Carrots, No Stick by Majid Rafizadeh

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17470/biden-iran-policy-carrots

Secretary of State Antony Blinken… stated at his inauguration hearing that he had “deep concern about the designation” of the Houthis as a terrorist organization, in that “at least on its surface it seems to achieve nothing particularly practical in advancing the efforts against the Houthis and to bring them back to the negotiating table….” One wonders if the same thinking would apply to Al Qaeda or Islamic State.

In yet an additional form of appeasement, the Biden administration has been strenuously ignoring the Iranian regime’s aggression and destabilizing behavior….. now, [Iran] is sending a destroyer… and a support vessel… to Venezuela.

“If the boats [seven Iranian high-speed missile-attack craft] are delivered, they may form the core of an asymmetrical warfare force within Venezuela’s armed forces. This could be focused on disrupting shipping as a means of countering superior naval forces. Shipping routes to and from the Panama Canal are near the Venezuelan coast.” — H I Sutton and Sam LaGrone, USNI News, U.S. Naval Institute, June 1, 2021.

Tehran has not only been using Venezuela for military cooperation, but also, it seems, to advance its nuclear program…. Iran’s ruling mullahs, in fact, appear to have been using Venezuela as part of a larger agenda for increasing Iran’s influence and the presence of its proxies in Latin and North America.

Instead of confronting Iran’s predatory regime, the Biden administration, has been forging ahead with the failed 2015 “nuclear deal” — which permits Iran to become a legitimate, full-blown nuclear power in just a few years. The Biden administration is also turning a blind eye to the regime’s alarming and increasing human rights violations.

Since the Biden administration assumed office, it has been increasingly appeasing the Iranian regime, which in return, is further emboldening and empowering the mullahs.

The first appeasement came when the administration changed the previous administration’s policy of maximum pressure to a policy of appeasement toward the Iran’s proxy militia group, the Houthis. Even as evidence — including a report by the United Nations — showed that the Iranian regime is delivering sophisticated weapons to the Houthi militia group in Yemen, the Biden administration suspended some of the sanctions against terrorism that the previous administration imposed on the Houthis. The previous US administration had designated Iran’s proxies, the Houthis, a terrorist group.

Biden’s Follies Abroad His European trip adds to his long record of foreign policy failure. by George Neumayr

https://spectator.org/biden-europe-trip-foreign-policy/

As Joe Biden stumbled on the world stage, spouting utter nonsense, a remark of Robert Gates, the former defense secretary under Obama, came to mind: “I think he [Biden] has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.”

Biden’s losing streak continues as president. If anything, his judgment is getting worse. To American troops stationed in the United Kingdom, he babbled about “global warming” as the greatest threat facing the United States. “This is not a joke,” he told the troops. But it is. Indeed, much of his trip seemed like a joke. His “rallying of democracies abroad” consisted of encouraging them to adopt his flaky ideas.

Biden went abroad not to vindicate America’s national interest but to promote an empty and deluded internationalism. Out of his talks with G7 leaders came a “build back better world” partnership, which will “demonstrate our shared values.” Those, of course, include spreading abortion and transgenderism under the guise of “gender equity and equality.”

It is hard to see how anything Biden discussed with these leaders could possibly strengthen democracies, let alone serve the interests of the United States. Capturing the frivolous character of the discussions, Boris Johnson, Britain’s prime minister, spoke of the importance of a “gender-neutral” post-pandemic world.

Biden should save his lectures on democracy for his own side, which now celebrates suppressions of free speech and the persecution of dissidents.

It is comic that global leaders who indulge in these nihilistic fads would set themselves up as great experts on what constitutes a civilized democracy. Far from safeguarding democracy, they are destroying its moral and religious underpinnings, abandoning the Judeo-Christian culture from which Europe and America came in favor of a relativistic one that holds nothing sacred save the cult of climate change, socialism, and sexual revolution.

The Pathetic Putin-Biden Summit A U.S. president mangles his first major leadership test on the world stage. Joseph Klein

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2021/06/bidens-useless-summit-putin-joseph-klein/

President Joe Biden met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Geneva on June 16th and came away empty-handed. They agreed to have their minions meet for future talks on cybersecurity and other contentious issues between the two countries.

“Earlier today, President Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin finally met for their big summit in Geneva,” Jimmy Fallon said on Wednesday’s Tonight Show. “When Biden said ‘I’ll give you my email,’ Putin said, ‘I already have your email — and password and Venmo, don’t worry about it.'” That’s about as good a commentary as any on the insignificance of this summit.

At least prior to former President Donald Trump’s first summit with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean dictator released three American hostages who had been held for months in North Korea’s inhuman labor camps. This time, Putin didn’t even release the two former U.S. Marines imprisoned in Russia, Trevor Reed and Paul Whelan, as a symbolic gesture to reciprocate for Biden’s waiver of the Nord Stream 2 sanctions. Russia’s release of the American hostages should have been Biden’s minimum condition for holding the summit in the first place.

All that Biden’s summit meeting with Putin accomplished was to give Putin a platform on the world stage where he appeared far more energetic and confident than Biden. It’s very troublesome — and embarrassing — when the leader of the free world takes fewer than half the questions from the press following the summit meeting than Putin took at his separate press conference. And Biden grew testy at his own solo press conference when the last questioner — from CNN, no less – asked Biden how his meeting with Putin could be characterized as constructive, given Putin’s past behavior and continued denials of any wrongdoing. “If you don’t understand that, you’re in the wrong business,” Biden barked at the reporter, for which he later apologized.

Putin and Biden had some nice words to say about the summit and about each other. However, Putin remained defiant in denying that any Russians were responsible for the cyberattacks launched against government and business sites in the United States. Thinking that the “best defense is a good offense,” Putin used his solo press conference to charge that the United States was responsible for far more malicious cyberattacks.