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FOREIGN POLICY

Will Israel lose its freedom to operate against Iran? – opinion Israel needs to prepare for this new reality where its ability to combat Iranian forces and proxy groups is concerned. By Ruthie Blum

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/will-israel-lose-its-freedom-to-operate-against-iran-opinion-655483?fbclid=IwAR3z6bPkCu03rcuy6zviDXEA8tR0PxZObv4aaG4KM0TV5KTZIz3b3jBNzko

Speculation about the extent to which the incoming American administration will appease Iran has been rampant. But US President-elect Joe Biden’s picks for relevant top positions don’t seem to leave much room for conjecture.

Let’s start with William Burns, Biden’s nomination for CIA director. Burns currently serves as president of the left-wing foreign-policy think tank the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, one of whose donors is the Open Society Foundations network, established by George Soros.

Burns has decades of experience as a career diplomat under both Democratic and Republican administrations. Contrary to false hopes, however, this is not a good sign. Burns is a longtime associate of Biden’s. The two have worked closely together, most recently when the latter was vice president and the former was deputy secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, during the administration of former US president Barack Obama.

The most disturbing thing about Burns, whose posts have included ambassadorships to Russia and Jordan, is his key role in covert talks with the regime in Tehran in 2013. These led to the 2015 signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the 5+1 countries: the United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia and China plus Germany. By that time Burns had retired, but his imprint lived on in the disastrous nuclear deal.

In this context, Biden’s statement about Burns – “[He] shares my profound belief that intelligence must be apolitical” – is amusing, if not downright disdain-inducing. Equally ridiculous, but cause for greater concern, is Burns’s current faith in the JCPOA from which outgoing US President Donald Trump withdrew in 2018.

Restart, Reset or Renew? The Strategy against Iranian Nuclear Ambition by Peter Schweizer

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/16937/iran-nuclear-ambition

Even if the deal negotiated in 2015 by the Obama administration were worth the effort, it is impossible to imagine the Iranians willingly recommitting to enrichment levels they have long since blown past. No one believes in their professed “peaceful use” of nuclear energy. So why does a return to the deal make any sense?

The killing of top terror-funding IRGC official Qasem Soleimani by the US military and Iran’s relatively toothless retaliatory attack against two US bases in Iraq suggest that the regime fears what an escalation of tensions would mean to its own future more than it desires to stab at the “Great Satan.” The regime may finally be on the verge of collapse.

Those sanctions are the only leverage the U.S. really has against Iran, and they may finally succeed, much as the Reagan administration was able to do to the USSR in the 1980s. Now is not the time to reduce or remove them in exchange for paper promises born of a campaign slogan, from a regime whose movements suggest it fears its days are numbered.

Through covert operations, hidden diplomacy, an intense military buildup, and a series of actions designed to throw sand in the gears of the Soviet economy, American policy destroyed the USSR from its fingertips to its heart. Former Soviet leaders including Mikhail Gorbachev have admitted it with grudging admiration. The only ones who were wrong were those in the liberal foreign policy establishment who pretended it was all just a coincidence.

President-elect Joe Biden ran on a slogan to “restore the Iran nuclear deal.” For those voters desperate to undo every accomplishment of the Trump administration, which abandoned the deal and imposed sharp sanctions on Iran’s oil and financial sectors, it must have sounded attractive.

But now that Biden will be responsible for American security and not just criticizing Donald Trump, he would do well to slow down and consider alternatives.

The Dons Behind Biden Why Biden thinks the Chinese Communists are “not bad folks” and “not competition for us.” Lloyd Billingsley

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2021/01/dons-behind-biden-lloyd-billingsley/

“Biden Gets China,” headlined the January 2, 2012 report in The Atlantic. As author Steve Clemons explained, “Vice President Joe Biden will take the lead on the administrations next phase China policy.”  This marked a shift to a “strategy of engagement with Biden at the top,” that allows the US to deal with China’s likely next president from a Vice President to a Vice President/Next President status — and to continue both the Departments of State’s and Treasury’s ongoing engagement with other designated key Chinese leaders.”

As Clemons explained, the move to put Biden at the top was “orchestrated” by Thomas Donilon, once described by James Mann in Foreign Policy as “Obama’s Gray Man” and seldom mentioned in the press. So Americans have cause to wonder what, exactly, Thomas Donilon is about.

According to AllGov.com, Donilon worked in the Carter White House and four years later served as campaign coordinator for Walter Mondale. In 1985, the University of Virginia law grad served with the Democratic National Committee and the next year joined the staff of the Senate Judiciary Committee but “he remained interested in helping get Democrats elected to the White House.”

In 1988, “Donilon first advised Sen. Joseph Biden” then went on to serve as senior counsel on President Bill Clinton’s 1992 transition team, and chief of staff for secretary of state Warren Christopher. Donilon became assistant secretary of state for public affairs and participated in the expansion of NATO and the relationship between the U.S. and China. His background showed no scholarly work on that country or any other.

From 1995 to 2005, Thomas Donilon was chief lobbyist of the Federal National Mortgage Association, better known as Fannie Mae. As CNN reported, Donilon left the company before it imploded and “was forced to pay $400 million to the federal government for misstated earnings during his time there.” Donilon also attempted to interfere with an audit by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight and tried to launch a separate investigation into the OFHEO itself.

President Biden Should Quash Abbas’ Newest Offensive by Moshe Phillips

https://www.algemeiner.com/2021/01/08/president-biden-should-quash-abbas-newest-offensive/

In December, both Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas and Russian leader Vladimir Putin called for the “Quartet” to be the sponsor of future negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. But why?

The Quartet was established in Madrid in 2002 and is comprised of the United Nations, the European Union, the United States, and Russia. It has been irrelevant for many years — at least since May 2015, when Tony Blair officially resigned from his role as Special Envoy, and arguably long before that.

The Biden administration should abandon the Quartet as soon as possible before Abbas’ offensive sees success.

A review of the Quartet’s website is instructive on why Abbas has been so vocal lately about his support for the Quartet’s increased involvement.

The tagline included at the top of every page of the Quartet’s website is “supporting the Palestinian people to build the institutions and economy of a viable, peaceful state in Gaza and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem.”

It’s important to break down that sentence.

First, the tagline does not mention Israel at all. That, in and of itself, is decision that cannot be defended in any way. How can one claim to support peace between two sides and ignore the very existence of one side in your mission statement?

Second, Israel’s major cities and Ben Gurion International Airport would be within easy rocket range of terrorists sitting on the Palestinian side of the border of a “West Bank” state. Does anyone honestly believes that a new Palestinian government would stamp out the terrorists? Does anybody remember the Oslo Accords, which obligated the Palestinian Authority to outlaw and disarm all terrorists? Who enforced that, and who will enforce future Palestinian compliance?

Iran, China, Promise to be the Biggest Tests of Biden’s Presidency in 2021 by Con Coughlin

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/16905/iran-china-policy-tests

There is eager anticipation among many of Washington’s foes that Mr Biden’s inauguration will result in the new president adopting a less confrontational tone with the outside world than his predecessor.

China’s communist rulers, for example, are hopeful that Mr Biden will engage in the kind of meaningless trade deals so beloved of his Democratic predecessor, Barack Obama. These are the trade deals where Washington agrees to improve trade ties with Beijing on the understanding that China addresses the unfair trading relationship between the two countries, knowing full well that China’s communist rulers have absolutely no intention of fulfilling their end of the bargain.

Before making any move that he may later regret, Mr Biden needs to think long and hard about the likely implications of trying to improve relations with Tehran.

As Iran has demonstrated consistently since signing the 2015 nuclear deal with the Obama administration, Tehran’s primary objective is to become the dominant power in the Middle East — not to live in peaceful coexistence with other nations in the region.

The revelation that Hezbollah has doubled the arsenal of advanced guided missiles it keeps trained on Israel during the course of the past year is a timely reminder that Iran, together with the numerous terrorist proxies it supports throughout the Middle East, promises to present the incoming Biden administration with its most critical foreign policy challenge in 2021.

Communist China Is Preparing To Eat Joe Biden’s Lunch Ben Weingarten

https://www.newsweek.com/communist-china-preparing-eat-joe-bidens-lunch-opini

Communist China is betting on a return to the status quo ante of American acquiescence to, and support of, its hegemonic ambitions through comprehensive “engagement” and outright appeasement under a Biden administration.

That is the primary takeaway, if the recent remarks of Chinese State Councilor and Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi are any indication.

In the waning days of 2020, Wang delivered a speech at the Asia Society entitled, “Reorient and Steer Clear of Disruptions for a Smooth Sailing of China-U.S. Relations.” The title itself gives away the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) game: It seeks a reversion to the ostensibly pacific relations with the U.S. under which our ruling class aided, abetted and enabled its rise from trifling concern to our most formidable geopolitical adversary.

Wang would make this view even clearer in a subsequent interview published in CCP mouthpiece Xinhua, in which he said “China-U.S. relations have come to a new crossroads, and a new window of hope is opening.” As Xinhua summarized it, “The Chinese side hopes that the next U.S. administration will return to a sensible approach, resume dialogue with China, restore normalcy to the bilateral relations and restart cooperation.”

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Clearly, Beijing would only deliver such a message if it believed it had a willing partner. That partner would be Joe Biden, the vessel of America’s globalist ruling class who spent his career at the highest levels of government cheering on a vision much in line with China’s own.

What does China’s desired relationship look like?

Congressmen Beating the Drum for Iran’s Mullahs by Majid Rafizadeh

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/16903/beating-drum-iran-mullahs

More than 100 Congressmen recently signed a letter expressing their support and urging presumptive President-Elect Joe Biden to rejoin the nuclear deal, which, incidentally, Iran never signed.

Biden… also appears to be on board with the lawmakers to appease the mullahs: “I will offer Tehran a credible path back to diplomacy. If Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations. With our allies, we will work to strengthen and extend the nuclear deal’s provisions, while also addressing other issues of concern.” — CNN, September 15, 2020.

This means that as sanctions will be lifted against the Iranian regime, the ruling clerics will ensure the survival of their theocratic establishment and militia groups across the Middle East.

Have these lawmakers and Biden learned nothing from recent history? Some may argue that Iran’s mullahs would change their destructive behavior if they were rewarded in advance with appeasement policies and financial incentives. This argument, however, has been proven to be breathtakingly wrong.

Tehran also used that influx of revenues to expand its influence throughout the region, including in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon — and as far away as Venezuela. Iran apparently sees Venezuela as its “beachhead for diplomatic and commercial expansion into Latin America,” including “underground ‘missile cities'” along the Gulf coast.

“You young people should be assured that you will witness the demise of the enemies of humanity, meaning the degenerate American civilization, and the demise of Israel”. — Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on his official website after a meeting with students, Reuters, May 22, 2019.

Amid the pandemic, some US Congressmen already appear to be spending their political capital on one thing: Appeasing the Iranian regime and pushing for a softer policy towards the mullahs. More than 100 Congressmen recently signed a letter expressing their support and urging presumptive President-Elect Joe Biden to rejoin the nuclear deal, which, incidentally, Iran never signed.

Twofaced US trade policy erodes Atlantic alliance by David Goldman

https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/two-faced-us-trade-policy-erodes-atlantic-alliance/

EU’s new investment pact with China calls Trump’s bluff on a tech war that gives cover to US side deals with Chinese companies

The US is peeved about EU’s new investment pact with China.

European distrust of American motives was behind EU leaders’ signing last week of a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment with China over the urgent objections of the Donald Trump administration and Joe Biden’s transition team.

Washington’s restrictions on trade and investment with China, Europeans believe, provide pretexts for dodgy deals that favor US companies at the expense of competitors on the other side of the Atlantic.

The Trump administration of course has long been in a trade war with Beijing, and there have been numerous news reports that Biden’s advisers had let European officials know they hoped for a delay that would give the new administration time to chime in before finalization of the pact.

Matt Pottinger, deputy national security adviser to Trump, issued a statement saying, “Leaders in both US political parties and across the US government are perplexed and stunned that the EU is moving towards a new investment treaty right on the eve of a new US administration.”

We Need a Global Alliance to Defend Democracies by Richard Kemp

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/16904/global-alliance-democracies

Under a Biden administration, many will be mindful of the Obama-era sell-out of America’s Middle East allies while accommodating the hostile Iranian ayatollahs.

Despite the optimistic indulgences by foreign policy experts and politicians over decades, China will not reform to allow normal coexistence within the world order but must instead be contained.

A modern alliance to resist today’s “attempted subjugation and outside pressures” should focus not only on China and the immediate challenges of 5G technology and supply chains, but also on the other major strategic threats to democratic states…. The object should not be… to lecture governments such as Hungary, Poland and Romania… While [Biden] may find their internal policies unpalatable, they pose no threat to any other country.

An interests-based, rather than ideological, alliance of strategically like-minded democracies should be built, each with the economic power and will to counter the authoritarian entities that oppose the Free World…. The alliance should work to push back the authoritarians and radicals across the economic, cultural, political, cyber and technological realms and deny them access to critical infrastructure and technology as well as opportunities for cultural subversion. It should also act to deter their further advances.

An important function of the proposed alliance would be to encourage member states, and their allies against authoritarian and extremist entities, to both provide adequate defence resources and where necessary adapt and modernise forces to ensure credible deterrence.

If a country lacks the confidence to stick up for its own values at home, how is it to robustly defend its virtues against those who wish to undermine them? This weakness in Western democracies has already allowed great strides across the world by China, Russia and jihadism and has helped create the situation that a D10 alliance is now urgently needed to repair.

National Security Advisor-Designate Jake Sullivan’s Record by Yoram Ettinger

Worldview and track record

Jake Sullivan’s worldview and track record (e.g., Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Dartmouth College, State Department, key advisor to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President-Elect Joe Biden) highlight:

*Attachment to Europe’s culture, history and geo-strategic thinking;
*Multilateralism through expanded national security collaboration with Europe, the UN and international alliances and organizations, rather than unilateralism; 
*Democracy and human rights-driven foreign policy [however, in the Middle East, Arab regimes do not lend themselves to human rights and consider democracy an existential threat];
*The reassertion of the State Department worldview [despite its systematic blunders in the Middle East];
*The restructuring of the defense budget by expanding “civilian tools” and reducing “military tools” of national security [in a stormy world, which requires an enhanced, not reduced, US posture of deterrence].
*The shared worldview and track record of Antony Blinken (Secretary of State-designate) and Jake Sullivan may constitute the ideological backbone of President-elect Joe Biden’s foreign and national security policy-making.

Iran

Jake Sullivan played a key role in negotiating the 2015 Iran nuclear accord (JCPOA). He opposes a regime-change policy, believing that Iran’s Ayatollahs are amenable to negotiation and peaceful-coexistence. Therefore, he will ditch the current policy of financial and military pressure, attempting to rejoin the accord – while expanding its duration and scope – which he believes would restore trust and cooperation with the international community.  

The JCPOA was rejected by all pro-US Arab states as articulated on December 28, 2020 by the Riyadh-based Arab News: “We should focus on the original end of the nuclear deal, which is turning Iran into a normal state that does not pose a threat to the security and safety of the international community. It is impossible to accept a deal that prevents Iran from threatening global security and peace for 15 years [which is the duration of the JCPOA], and then allow it to resume the threat. There are no reformists in Iran, capable of persuading the regime to be more open to the West. The JCPOA was not sufficiently reviewed as far as its impact on Iran’s belligerence, internationally and regionally. The Ayatollahs took immediate advantage of the JCPOA to support their [rogue] proxies and allies in the region, boost their missile program, purchase weapons, and strengthen their vast domestic repressive apparatuses….”

In fact, the JCPOA (a model of multilateralism) has not diverted Iran’s Ayatollahs from their fanatic, megalomaniacal strategic goal to control the Persian Gulf, Middle East, the Muslim World and beyond.  The JCPOA has generated a financial and political tailwind to the Ayatollahs’ dominant stature in the region, unchallenged by the US, and posing an existential threat to all US Arab allies. It has bolstered Iran’s systematic subversion, terrorism and wars in the Middle East, Central Asia, Africa and Latin America, aiming to weaken the “Great US Satan,” while emerging as a nuclear power in 10-15 years, or less, following 2015.