https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2020/07/middle-east-conundrum-joseph-puder/
With the Middle East awaiting the U.S. elections, there is no significant military or political movement in the region. The Arab world, much like the rest of the world, is preoccupied with the coronavirus crisis, and its severe impact on the local economies in the region. The Arab world, divided into royalist, presidential, and parliamentary systems, none of them democratic, all having conflicting interests, are now in the same boat because of the coronavirus crisis. In Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Syria and the Arab Gulf states, the current focus is on internal issues, specifically health measures that would prevent the spread of coronavirus infections and the economic impact it has caused. As far as external issues are concerned, there is a conundrum. Who will be the next U.S. president? Many external decisions will await the results of the U.S. presidential elections, and the direction of the next American president.
Iran is not an Arab country, but it too is enmeshed in recovering from the economic damage caused by the coronavirus, and the impact of the U.S. sanctions on its failing economy. The regime is burdened by the lack of credibility and trustworthiness. The ayatollahs poor handling of the coronavirus crisis, coupled with the downing of the Ukrainian jetliner by the Iranian military in January, 2020, at the loss of 176 lives, exposed the regimes incompetence. Then they lied about it. The Islamic Republic of Iran is hoping for a Democrat party victory in the November, 2020 U.S. elections, and the defeat of Donald Trump in particular. They are expecting that Joe Biden as President will end the sanctions and rejoin the 5+1 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Iraq is now more stable, following six months of failed attempts to form a government. The new Prime Minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, a former head of Intelligence, is not an Iranian puppet. He is committed to lead Iraq out of its economic crisis, due in part to the collapse of the price of oil, Iraq’s primary export. Iraq has also endured a health crisis brought about by the coronavirus, and a resurgent Islamic State terrorism (IS). The appointment of al-Kadhimi as prime minister, and the strengthened position of the Kurdish President of Iraq, Barham Salih, (this reporter interviewed Barham Salih in 1993), both of them reformers, has dealt a blow to the pro-Iranian groups in Iraq. The election of al-Kadhimi was welcomed by Washington.