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FOREIGN POLICY

What Will a Trump Re-Election Mean For the Middle East? The region’s future hinges on what happens in November. Joseph Puder

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2020/07/middle-east-conundrum-joseph-puder/

With the Middle East awaiting the U.S. elections, there is no significant military or political movement in the region. The Arab world, much like the rest of the world, is preoccupied with the coronavirus crisis, and its severe impact on the local economies in the region. The Arab world, divided into royalist, presidential, and parliamentary systems, none of them democratic, all having conflicting interests, are now in the same boat because of the coronavirus crisis. In Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Syria and the Arab Gulf states, the current focus is on internal issues, specifically health measures that would prevent the spread of coronavirus infections and the economic impact it has caused. As far as external issues are concerned, there is a conundrum. Who will be the next U.S. president? Many external decisions will await the results of the U.S. presidential elections, and the direction of the next American president.

Iran is not an Arab country, but it too is enmeshed in recovering from the economic damage caused by the coronavirus, and the impact of the U.S. sanctions on its failing economy. The regime is burdened by the lack of credibility and trustworthiness. The ayatollahs poor handling of the coronavirus crisis, coupled with the downing of the Ukrainian jetliner by the Iranian military in January, 2020, at the loss of 176 lives, exposed the regimes incompetence. Then they lied about it. The Islamic Republic of Iran is hoping for a Democrat party victory in the November, 2020 U.S. elections, and the defeat of Donald Trump in particular. They are expecting that Joe Biden as President will end the sanctions and rejoin the 5+1 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Iraq is now more stable, following six months of failed attempts to form a government. The new Prime Minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, a former head of Intelligence, is not an Iranian puppet. He is committed to lead Iraq out of its economic crisis, due in part to the collapse of the price of oil, Iraq’s primary export. Iraq has also endured a health crisis brought about by the coronavirus, and a resurgent Islamic State terrorism (IS). The appointment of al-Kadhimi as prime minister, and the strengthened position of the Kurdish President of Iraq, Barham Salih, (this reporter interviewed Barham Salih in 1993), both of them reformers, has dealt a blow to the pro-Iranian groups in Iraq. The election of al-Kadhimi was welcomed by Washington.

Congress Launches Bipartisan Bill to Give Refugee Status to Certain Hong Kong Residents New bill is aimed at Hong Kongers at risk of persecution under Chinese territory’s new national-security law by Kate O’Keefe

https://www.wsj.com/articles/congress-launches-bipartisan-bill-to-give-refugee-status-to-certain-hong-kong-residents-11593553499

Lawmakers of both parties launched a bill to give refugee status to Hong Kong residents at risk of persecution under the Chinese territory’s new national-security law, which local rights activists and many Western countries have decried as a tool for Beijing to suppress civil liberties in the semiautonomous city-state.

The bill, introduced hours after the text of the new security law was released, is being led by Marco Rubio (R., Fla.) and Bob Menendez (D., N.J.) in the Senate and John Curtis (R., Utah) and Joaquin Castro (D., Texas) in the House of Representatives, along with around a dozen co-sponsors from both chambers.

The legislation would require the State Department to designate as refugees of special humanitarian concern Hong Kong residents who suffered persecution, or have a well-founded fear of it, due to their expression of political opinions or peaceful participation in political activities. The privileges would extend to those individuals’ spouses, children and parents, provided the parents are Chinese citizens, the text says.

The paperwork could be completed in Hong Kong or in a third country, and refugees would then be able to apply for permanent residency and citizenship. The opportunity, which wouldn’t be restricted by the current U.S. cap on refugees, would be valid for five years from the date of the bill’s passage.

The Ending of Iran Nuclear Deal Sanction Waivers Shoshana Bryen

https://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/insight/

If you believe Iran when it says that if the U.S. reverses President Donald Trump’s decision not to renew sanctions waivers permitting outside assistance to Iran’s nuclear facilities, it will meet its obligations under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (“JCPOA,” or “Iran deal”), stop here.

If you think it is better to keep outsiders in Iran, under the JCPOA, to “reduce Iran’s incentive to enrich uranium at higher levels,” as non-proliferation specialists told The Washington Post—in other words, to keep Iran from cheating more than it otherwise would cheat—stop here.

But, if you understand that the Islamic Republic cheats on everything—on U.N.-imposed nuclear restrictions, including by building a nuclear weapons plant in Syria; on U.N.-imposed conventional arms restrictions, including by transfers to Hezbollah; on the U.N. embargo on ballistic missile development, including by building missile factories in Syria and Lebanon and providing precision missiles to Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen; on its human rights obligations; on the oil embargo; and by breaking U.N. embargoes on North Korea and Venezuela—keep going. And if you know that Iran was responsible for the ethnic cleansing of hundreds of thousands of Sunni Syrians from the center of the country into Turkey, and further westward to Europe as refugees, keep going. And if you are sure that Iran is calling for genocide against Israel…well, you get the point.

A Global Strategy That Can Appeal to Trump Voters Populists and elites can agree on reciprocal trade and the Chinese threat. Walter Russell Mead

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-global-strategy-that-can-appeal-to-trump-voters-11591201375?mod=opinion_featst_pos2

Donald Trump will be president for either 7½ more months or 4½ more years. The voters who support him will be around for much longer.

For students of U.S. foreign policy, this poses a question independent of Mr. Trump’s personality and political style: Is the gap between America’s post-World War II global strategy and the beliefs of the president’s base too wide to be bridged? Or is there a way to envision a global strategy for the U.S. that American populism can support?

Historically, the answer to the latter question has been yes. Jacksonians can be part of a stable political coalition that backs a global U.S. strategy. That was the normal condition during the Cold War, when Jacksonians were as loyal to Ronald Reagan as they are today to Mr. Trump. Though rarely enthusiastic about the United Nations, foreign aid or humanitarian interventions abroad, Jacksonians saw the Soviet Union and its communist ideology as a mortal threat to American freedom. Facing that danger, they were ready to do their part against the U.S.S.R.

After the Cold War, Jacksonians and U.S. strategy began to drift apart. Under Republican and Democratic presidents from George H.W. Bush through Barack Obama, American foreign policy became more ambitious. The goal was no longer to defeat the Soviet threat but to create a “new world order” by promoting democracy and liberal capitalism around the world. As awareness of climate change spread, the new world order acquired another task: to shift the global economy toward carbon neutrality.

Why the U.S. and U.K. Must Stand Up to China By Tom Cotton & Tobias Ellwood

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/06/why-the-u-s-and-uk-must-stand-up-to-china/

The Rt. Hon. Tobias Ellwood MP is the chairman of Parliament’s Defense Committee and leads its subcommittee inquiry into the future of 5G in the United Kingdom. Tom Cotton is a United States senator for Arkansas. He will testify before Ellwood’s subcommittee today.

T he Chinese Communist Party’s malevolent actions are forcing governments around the world to reassess their relationships with China. This is an opportunity to strengthen the alliances among the United States, the United Kingdom, and other free countries.

China’s leaders proved they can’t be trusted when they suppressed news of the virus outbreak in Wuhan and stonewalled inquiries into the virus’s origins. Now they are breaking promises to the people of Hong Kong, preparing repressive security laws against the will of the island’s residents, in clear violation of the Sino-British Joint Declaration, in which Beijing promised to respect Hong Kong’s free system of government. Conditions for the Uighur minority in Xinjiang are as dire as ever, and territorial expansion in the South China Sea and in disputed areas of the Sino-Indian border continues apace. Meanwhile Xi Jinping’s dictatorship makes no effort to conceal its plans for compulsory reunification between mainland China and Taiwan, using violence if necessary.

Such abuses have contributed to a debate in the U.K. about whether to allow equipment from the Chinese company Huawei into its 5G network. Huawei is one of the Communist Party’s technology champions. After clawing its way to the top of the global market through industrial espionage, economic blackmail, and state subsidies, Huawei now gives China’s spies a portal into the countries that have allowed it into their networks.

To Prove Courage Of Convictions, Woke Capital Must Challenge China’s Hong Kong Crackdown By Ben Weingarten

https://thefederalist.com/2020/06/02/to-prove-courage-of-convictions-woke-capital

With the Trump administration formally recognizing the sad reality on the ground that once-free and democratic Hong Kong is being subsumed by communist China to such a degree that it can no longer treat the two systems as distinct, woke capital is being presented with an opportunity to practice what it preaches.

Will it steadfastly protest Chinese Communist Party (CCP) tyranny, or sit idly by in spite of its stated devotion to progressive principles in the service of all “stakeholders”?

Woke capital, consisting broadly of the financial services industry and Big Business, is particularly well-suited to challenge China because it plays such an outsized role in U.S.-China relations.

Commerce has been core to the development of such relations since before President Richard Nixon went to China.

The U.S. government, backed since at least the 1970s by the private sector, would, over time, foster economic ties with China and welcome it into the global economic and financial architecture America largely built and maintained. It did so on the bases of economic self-interest and idealism. The potential economic benefits were obvious.

Open Skies: The Cassette Deck of Treaties By Shoshana Bryen

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/05/open_skies_the_cassette_deck_of_treaties.html

In 1955, President Dwight D. Eisenhower proposed to the Kremlin that the U.S. and the USSR each be permitted to conduct aerial reconnaissance of the other’s territory and collect data on each other’s military forces and activities to enhance confidence that neither was planning a surprise attack. Moscow refused, calling it a license for American spying. Intensification of the Cold War made the issue dormant until President George H.W. Bush revived it in 1999 after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The “Open Skies Treaty” was signed and ratified in 2002 and now has 34 members.  According to the Arms Control Association, “All of a state-party’s territory can be overflown. No territory can be declared off-limits by the host nation.” In addition, “Observation aircraft used to fly the missions must be equipped with sensors that enable the observing party to identify significant military equipment, such as artillery, fighter aircraft, and armored combat vehicles.”

President Donald Trump has notified the parties that the U.S. is withdrawing from Open Skies, effective in six months. He did not irrevocably slam the door on the treaty but, as he did with the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, the “Iran deal”), he made clear that the U.S. would not remain a party to a treaty that does not serve American interests. “Russia didn’t adhere to the treaty. So, until they adhere, we will pull out,” he told reporters.

Amid the customary shrieking — by European countries and Democrats — that accompanies the President’s efforts to align American security policy with American interests, three things should be understood:

The Russians were cheating in their overflights of the United States
The Russians were cheating the United States in our overflights of Russian territory
Satellite technology today can easily replace airplane surveillance

The Chinese Challenge to the U.S.-Israel Relationship Beijing brings investment dollars, but also tensions with America. Douglas Feith

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-chinese-challenge-to-the-u-s-israel-relationship-11589576485?mod=opinion_lead_pos8

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met on Wednesday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem and warned that further Israeli economic linkage with China will hurt relations with the U.S. Coming from an administration far warmer toward Israel than any in the past, that message packs a punch.

Mr. Pompeo is making clear that the world has entered a new era in its relations with China. While some pushback against hostile Chinese actions occurred in the Obama years, it has intensified in the Trump period and gained bipartisan support. Pushback is now U.S. policy, expected to continue no matter who wins November’s presidential election. Israel remains focused on Iran and other regional concerns, but it can’t ignore the world’s new great strategic challenge.

At issue in Israel are commercial activities of Chinese companies, but the first two major U.S.-Israel clashes over China were about military contracts. In the late 1990s, U.S. officials objected to a planned sale to China of the Israeli-made Phalcon airborne radar system. Israel bowed to U.S. pressure in 2000, canceled the sale, refunded China nearly $200 million, and paid it more than $150 million on top in damages.

The second clash, which occurred during George W. Bush’s presidency and involved Israel’s Harpy antiradar missile, had far-reaching consequences. In 2005 the director general of Israel’s Defense Ministry was fired after losing the trust of U.S. defense officials. The Knesset enacted new export-control legislation and Israel’s Defense Ministry concluded an information-sharing agreement with the Pentagon. Most important, in 2005 Israel terminated altogether its defense trade with China.

Harry S. Truman and Israel, Legacy of a Great Statesman An act of fortitude that will always be warmly remembered by Israelis and Jews worldwide. Ari Lieberman

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2020/05/harry-s-truman-and-israel-legacy-great-statesman-ari-lieberman/

May 14, 1948 will mark the 72nd anniversary of the founding of the modern State of Israel. Israel’s War of Independence was arguably its most difficult. Six-thousand citizens out of 600,000 were killed. More than 2,000 of these were civilians.

But the war did not begin on May 14. It actually began on November 30, 1947 one day following a United Nations General Assembly vote in favor of partitioning Mandatory Palestine into Jewish and Arab states. The following day, Arab brigands attacked two civilian Egged buses on route from Hadera and Netanya to Jerusalem, killing six and injuring several more. That incident marked the beginning of the conflict.

In the first four months of conflict, the outlook for the Jews was bleak. Three successive Arab terrorist bomb attacks targeting high profile Jewish targets in Jerusalem inflicted mass casualties and sapped morale. Two of those attacks – the bombing of the Palestine Post newspaper offices and the Ben Yehuda Street bombing – were facilitated by British soldiers. The topography also favored the Arabs, who held much of the high ground and specialized in ambushing Jewish vehicles heading to isolated outposts.

Making matters worse for the Jews were the British occupation authorities, who openly sided with the Arabs. Right up until the end of their mandate, the British zealously enforced immigration quotas against the Jews but turned a blind eye toward organized Arab infiltration. In addition, they attempted to prevent the Jews from acquiring arms while the Arabs were free to purchase weapons on the open market. In one ignominious incident, four Jewish Haganah operatives were disarmed by British soldiers and released into the hands of an Arab mob where they were promptly lynched.

American Foreign and Defense Policy: Between Scylla and Charybdis By Mark Helprin

https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2020/05/04/american-foreign-and-defense-policy-between-scylla-and-charybdis/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm

Rather than react, we must chart a course

Fifteen years before the coronavirus pandemic, I wrote a speech for a world-renowned physician who was coincidentally the majority leader of the United States Senate, and thus not without influence. He went, wholeheartedly, all-in, delivering it in the Senate, at Harvard Medical School’s most important annual lecture, at Davos, at the Bohemian Grove (where the only Bohemian to enthuse sufficiently to request a copy was Henry Kissinger), and elsewhere.

And, of course, Senator Bill Frist took it to the White House. He presented a strong — one might even say urgent — case for establishing joint research and vaccine-and-curative manufacturing centers judiciously spaced throughout the country; the doubling of medical- and nursing-school outputs; incentives for commercial pharmaceutical and medical-device research and production; increasing the number of hospital beds; providing for the stocks, structures, and reserve personnel for large-scale emergency field hospitals; and laying up stores of necessaries such as personal protective equipment (PPE) and, specifically, ventilators. Given that the laws of economics were not repealed, the ancillary effect of the supply surge in some of these medical goods — such as doctors, nurses, and hospital capacity — would have lowered their cost or at least slowed its rise. He asked for $100 billion per year. Had spending kept up at that level, which it need not have to assure adequate preparation, it would have amounted to only one-quarter of the monies shoveled into the furnace of COVID-19 in the last few weeks alone. He got a total of $2.4 billion over four years for the Strategic National Stockpile that of late has proved wholly inadequate.