https://jcpa.org/article/the-u-s-withdrawal-from-afghanistan-will-international-terrorism-now-be-empowered-or-defeated/
Defending his withdrawal decision, President Joe Biden claimed that al-Qaeda was “gone” from Afghanistan. Yet at the same time, the American and British security establishments spoke of al-Qaeda’s continued presence in the country.
A UN report to the Security Council, submitted in June 2021, stated that “despite expectations for a reduction in violence, 2020 (the year of the U.S.-Taliban agreement on withdrawal) emerged as the most violent year ever recorded by the United Nations in Afghanistan.”
A common Western assumption is the hope that withdrawal would reduce the hostility of the Taliban and their allies. But this is a misinterpretation of what motivated jihadist groups. In the Middle East, withdrawals strengthen their motivation.
The Israeli experience was identical: when Israel unilaterally withdrew from Gaza, Hamas won the Palestinian elections and took over Gaza from Fatah. Rocket attacks on Israel, after the Gaza withdrawal, increased by 500%.
To defeat the jihadist forces it was necessary to accompany withdrawal with actions that left no doubt that what happened was a defeat for them.
But it does not seem that President Biden will pursue such a strategy, leaving the West with an empowered al-Qaeda to fight against in the years ahead.
In a stunning statement last Friday in which he defended his withdrawal decision, President Joe Biden claimed that al-Qaeda was “gone” from Afghanistan. In other words, since the U.S. had set the goal of preventing Afghanistan from again becoming a platform for al-Qaeda to strike at the U.S. and this goal had been reached, it was reasoned, then, that all American forces could be safely withdrawn. The glaring problem was that Biden did not have the backing of the American security establishment.
An hour after Biden spoke, the Defense Department Press Secretary, John Kirby, stated, “We know al-Qaeda is a presence in Afghanistan.” A Defense Department report to Congress issued on August 17 plainly stated, “The Taliban continued to maintain its relationship with al-Qaeda, providing safe haven for the terrorist group in Afghanistan.” Roughly, at the same time, the Taliban released 5,000 prisoners from Bagram air base, which included al-Qaeda and ISIS operatives. In short, the Taliban and al-Qaeda were tightly linked.