Last week, Israel’s defense minister, Avigdor Lieberman, announced that Israel was working tirelessly to thwart Iranian weapons transfers to Hezbollah via Syria. For the first time, Lieberman hinted that in addition to sophisticated weaponry, Hezbollah was seeking to acquire WMDs. The defense minister also noted that Israel would operate to preserve its interests “without taking other circumstances or restrictions into account.” Presumably, this means that regardless of the prospects of Hezbollah-Iranian retaliation or the presence of a Russian anti-aircraft umbrella, Israel will continue to act when its interests are threatened.
Lieberman’s tough talk followed a series of Israeli strikes against military targets within Syria. The first targeted a Hezbollah weapons convoy travelling along the Beirut-Damascus highway while a second strike hit a Syrian military compound just outside Damascus housing elements of Syria’s 4th Armored Division. A third attack on December 7 targeted Mezzeh Air Base in western Damascus. A number of secondary explosions occurred following the attack indicating direct hits.
Assad’s propaganda outlet, Sana, as well as the Hezbollah-affiliated Al Mayadeen TV channel blamed Israel for the Mezzeh attack though the former claimed the strike was carried out with surface-to-surface missiles while the latter alleged that it was executed by fighter jets flying over “Lebanese airspace.”
Following the attacks, Arab media reported that Russia had warned Hezbollah, and by extension Iran, not to retaliate. Russia’s interest in Syria is to ensure the survival of its air and naval facilities centered in or near Latakia and Tartus. Putin has no interest in needlessly antagonizing the Israelis and any form of Iranian or Hezbollah retaliation serves no Russian purpose and may in fact, undermine Moscow’s goals.
Hezbollah was quick to deny the Arab media reports terming them “incorrect and completely invented.” Despite the fact that Hezbollah uses principally Russian weapons and is wholly subservient to Iranian interests, it continues to maintain the façade of an independent, indigenous “resistance” organization. That is why Arab media reports of Russian warnings to the terror group provoked an immediate temperamental response but it is likely that those media reports were accurate.
In Syria, Putin pulls the strings and but for Moscow’s intervention, Assad’s position would be extremely precarious. It is therefore likely that Russia put the kibosh on any thought of Hezbollah retaliation as that kind of action would antagonize Israel and run counter to Russian interests.
On Sunday, in a 60 Minutes interview with Leslie Stahl, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu classified Israel’s relations with Russia as “amicable.” That description might be bit of an understatement. At a recent conference hosted by the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, Russia’s envoy to the Middle East and Africa, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov termed relations between Moscow and Jerusalem “at their highest point ever.”