https://www.city-journal.org/article/hamass-fateful-errors
Hamas seems to have made two fundamental miscalculations in staging its barbaric October 7 attack on Israel.
First, its leadership clearly assumed that the United States would not continue to support Israel if it killed enough of the Palestinians whom Hamas has been using as human shields to protect its command centers and underground tunnel networks in Gaza.
Second, Hamas apparently assumed that if enough Palestinians in Gaza died in Israeli bombing, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and its patron Iran would escalate the conflict by opening a second front in the war, a scenario that has clearly worried both Israel and Washington.
Both calculations might still prove valid if Palestinian deaths and suffering in Gaza continue to command the world’s attention and spark increasing outrage, but Hamas’s hope that Iran and Hezbollah, which has de facto control of Lebanon, would escalate the conflict to defend Hamas and the Palestinians of Gaza seems to be misplaced.
Last Friday, in his first public comments since the October 7 attack, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that an expanded war remains a “realistic possibility,” but he did not declare an official intervention in the conflict.
Speaking in a sermon broadcast after Muslim prayers Friday to thousands of supporters in Dahieh, Hezbollah’s main stronghold in Beirut’s southern suburbs and elsewhere in Lebanon, Nasrallah denied that his militant Shiite Muslim “Party of God” played any role in Hamas’s attack on Israel. Hamas’s Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, he said, was “100 percent Palestinian in terms of decision and execution.” Hamas, he added, had kept it secret not only from fellow militant groups in Gaza, but also from “other resistance factions across the resistance axis”—that is, from Iran.