“It’s Virtually Impossible to Be a Successful Modern President” declares the headline of a blog post by the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza. The post has drawn a great deal of ridicule, but to our mind most of the critics fail to appreciate just how feeble an effort it is. Our aim is to correct that.
Cillizza’s argument is based on four observations: First, the presidency is a difficult job. Second, the “bully pulpit” isn’t what it used to be. Third, the electorate and elected officials have become more ideologically polarized. Fourth, the “mainstream media” are no longer a coherent and powerful entity, in part because of the rise of social media.
These utterly banal observations add up to a causal claim: that because of the last three factors, it has become impossible for a president to succeed. Well, no, not impossible, he admits at the very end, and the headline does include the weasel word virtually. “But failure is far, far more likely. Ask Barack Obama. Or George W. Bush.”
One suspects if asked, either Obama or Bush would dispute the premise that he is a failure. But rather than argue over specific cases, let’s ask Cillizza to define his terms. What constitutes a failed presidency? Here’s his answer: “A president who [sic] a majority of the country disapproves of and a country even more split along ideological lines on, well, everything.”
The second component of this definition begs the question. Cillizza claims ideological polarization causes presidential failure, which he defines in part as ideological polarization. So ideological polarization causes ideological polarization. At the end of the post, Cillizza tries to isolate disapproval from polarization and comes up with this:
I was talking to a Democratic pollster recently about President Obama’s weak job approval ratings and what it might mean for Democrats on the ballot this fall. I asked how Obama could move his numbers up and what a “good place” for him might look like. The pollster responded that the political world needed to change its definition of what being a popular president entails in this day and age. His point was that if Obama could somehow crawl back to 50 percent approval before November, that would be a huge success. Obama’s ceiling–almost no matter what he said or did–was around 52 or 53 percent, the pollster argued.
Of course that goes both ways: A polarized electorate means that a president’s approval rating has a floor (in Obama’s case a bit below 40%) as well as a ceiling. But in any case, if contemporaneous approval ratings were the measure of presidential success, Truman would be considered a failure and Harding would be on Mount Rushmore.