With the fall of Mosul to ISIS terrorists the goal of a new state incorporating territory in northern Iraq and Syria may be a reality. As I see it, this is more than a Sunni-Shia conflict within the confines of one region. It has the potential to be the catalyst of World War IV, the Cold War being World War III.
All of the geographic suppositions of the past have been challenged. The lines defining Syria are decimated. Syria will be dismantled along with Iraq. A Kurdish state is a distinct possibility even though Turkey will be vigorously opposed to it. Jordan’s future is now in peril, forcing Israel to protect its eastern front. Iran will join its Shia allies in Iraq to realize as much of the country as possible and to oppose the Sunni ISIS. Because of pressure from Congress the U.S. is likely to provide support and logistical aid to the Malaki government in Iraq and assist Iranian efforts to stabilize the region, notwithstanding the rivalry between the U.S. and Iran on a host of other issues, including nuclear weapons development.
Waiting in the wings are the Sunni nations of Egypt, UAE, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia that fear Shia imperialistic impulses more than the ISIS. Should Iran exploit this tumultuous situation to enhance its own position, those Sunni states would be obliged to act. Similarly, Netanyahu and Israeli leaders cannot stand by and allow Jordan to be uprooted by ISIS radicals. The peace with Jordan has preserved relative stability on Israel’s eastern border for several decades.
Complicating matters is the nuclear weapons issue. In every escalation scenario, the possibility of nuclear exchange is the termination point. But with Iran on the cusp of development and Saudi Arabia consummating a deal for weapons acquisition with Pakistan, the genie is out of the bottle and the region is a powder keg.
Since Islam sometimes masquerades as a religion behind a political ideology, its politicized version promoted by Da’esh, al Qaeda, the Khomeinists in Iran, the Taliban and Boko Haran is eager to establish a worldwide Califate even if deprived of its theological mooring. The events, as they are unfolding in the Middle East, offer a scenario for a worldwide convulsion. While the caliphate project is unrealistic, at the moment it inspires radical aspirations leading to a recipe for conflict, terrorism and World War IV.