I agree with most of this except for a “Kasich/Rubio” ticket…… and the possibility of a dark horse emerging from a brokered convention. Romney is yesterday, much as I admire him, and Kasich is bland and boring……so far I am rooting for Marco Rubio…..rsk
Jim Gilmore, George Pataki, and Rick Perry are capable former governors with limited support who will (or should) soon withdraw. (Memo to Rick Perry’s $17 million Super PACs: Deploy the funds on targeted U.S. Senate races next year.) Governor Bobby Jindal is brainy but comes across as an esoteric policy wonk. Staying for the endgame will not help him win the vice-presidential nomination. Persistent Lindsey Graham is a colorful senator who has no chance. The media might even stop covering his attacks on Trump. Repeat candidates Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum are effective speakers and appealing personalities; both are born-again populists who appeal to working-class constituencies, but it’s still mostly religious conservatives who favor them, and many evangelicals are now leaning toward Ben Carson. The over-the-top jailing of clerk Kim Davis for not issuing a same-sex marriage license is appalling and will enhance Huckabee’s appeal — for a while. But even an Iowa win for Huckabee is uncertain, and if he did win there, it might not provide needed momentum.
Rand Paul showed early promise with new ideas and impressive outreach to the young and to non-whites, but he peaked at his announcement. His foreign-policy views often seem incoherent. Besides, his father Ron Paul has been sabotaging Rand’s campaign, blaming the Paris terrorist attack on French policy in Algeria six decades ago and urging the Iran nuclear deal. Look for Rand to continue attacking Trump as an unreconstructed crony capitalist. Eventually, Rand will run for reelection to the U.S. Senate. Other candidates could take lessons from Rand Paul on reaching way beyond the base.
Governor Scott Walker’s opening blunder — comparing union goons in Wisconsin to ISIS terrorists — has defined his campaign of rhetorical inelegance. He seems like a lightweight, with his frequent “big, bold agenda” sound bites and his repetitious “won three elections in four years in a blue state” political-action-committee jargon. Conservative stalwarts wanted an accomplished governor this time, but Walker, with an outstanding record, comes across as anemic and politically off. When the Supreme Court narrowly ruled against traditional marriage, he should have pivoted to the issue of religious freedom for bakers and florists under siege. Instead, he called for a nonsensical constitutional amendment to overturn the court’s decision. In this first debate, he departed from many of his pro-life colleagues and said he would prohibit abortion without an exemption for the life of the mother. He could be unelectable in a general election.