The regimes of Turkey, Iran, and Syria all have large Kurdish minorities, and apparently do not want Kurds within their states to seek either autonomy or union within an independent Iraqi Kurdistan, and view an independent Kurdistan as a possible ally for Israel.
ERBIL — There is a sense of unity throughout Iraqi Kurdistan. The two political rivals, which have controlled Kurdistan’s politics for decades, appear to have “buried the hatchet” deep enough to withstand any continuing differences over policy and tribal interests. The Kurdistan Democratic Party [KDP], which represents the Barzani Clan, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan [PUK], which represents the Talabani Clan, remain well represented in the parliament with the KDP controlling 38 out of 111 seats and the PUK 18.[1]
There is little public mention of this past rivalry; here, clan-centered local politics seems to have been replaced by a grander vision of a future independent Republic of Kurdistan. The only major decision regarding this future development is the question of the proper timing for the declaration. There are, however, a few variables that may delay the birth of this new, non-Arab state in the Middle East.
One variable is the fate of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant [ISIL]. The Kurds appear to have regained their self-confidence after a late-summer scare when ISIL forces inflicted a series of defeats on Kurdistan’s peshmerga troops. American bombing raids, Iranian Qods Force volunteers, and pro-Iranian Shia militia helped stabilize the military landscape even as Western investors fled the region.
Another variable is U.S. State Department pressure on the Kurds to remain within the Iraqi state. It appears that economic reality combined with American persuasion have succeeded in postponing the birth of the Kurdish nation-state.[2]