https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-senate-barnburner-in-farm-country-1536356011
A Senate Barnburner in Farm Country North Dakota’s tossup election may turn on trade, conservative values, and how much the state wants to embrace Donald Trump. By Kyle Peterson
Standing on a shop floor between two 1,000-barrel steel tanks destined for the oil fields out west, Rep. Kevin Cramer insists that President Trump cares about North Dakota. “This is no longer flyover country, if you hadn’t noticed,” he tells a group of steelworkers in coveralls and hard hats on a late-August morning. “The secretary of transportation has been here twice. The secretary of homeland security. The secretary of energy. The secretary of agriculture. Of course, the president himself twice, and the vice president three times, just since they took office.”
For a red-state Republican in a tight election, these rolling visits are the arrival of the cavalry. Mr. Cramer is asking voters to promote him to the Senate this fall, and his success will be pivotal if the GOP is to keep majority control. The incumbent Democrat, Heidi Heitkamp, is so personally popular that Mr. Cramer confesses in one TV ad that “we all like Heidi.”
Yet North Dakotans also backed Mr. Trump in 2016 by nearly 36 points. “They are very supportive of this president,” Mr. Cramer tells me. He tilts his head and grins a little: “I mean very supportive.” Hence, Mr. Trump’s third official visit to the state, touching down Air Force One in Fargo this Friday to talk up Mr. Cramer at a $500-a-person fundraiser. “He’s gonna vote with me. He’s going to vote on Making America Great Again,” Mr. Trump told the crowd. If that doesn’t convince, the president is expected back in North Dakota for another rally before the election, and there’s Donald Trump Jr.’s planned speech on Sept. 25, not to mention . . .
One potential hang-up is Mr. Trump’s trade war, which could soon cost North Dakota farmers hundreds of millions of dollars. In 2012 Ms. Heitkamp won election by 0.9 percentage point, or 2,936 votes. Since the state has 30,000 farms, even a small tariff revolt could swing the balance. So far there hasn’t been much reliable polling. A June 13-15 survey gave Mr. Cramer a 4-point lead, within the margin of error, but that was before China put a 25% tariff on U.S. soybeans.
Typically, more than two-thirds of North Dakota’s soybean crop goes to China, shipped via ports in the Pacific Northwest: 60 pounds a bushel; 400,000 bushels carried by a 110-car train; just over five trainloads to fill a Panamax bulk ship. But since July there have been zero orders from the Pacific Northwest, industry data show. Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade have fallen 20%, from highs near $10.50 a bushel to below $8.50. Meanwhile, the bite taken at the local elevator, which reflects demand and shipping costs, has grown. Instead of something like 85 cents, it’s hitting $1.50, as the market contemplates the difficulty of having to send soybeans east to St. Louis or Duluth, Minn.