RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/03/16/china_wins_a_little_loses_a_lot_from_russias_war_on_ukraine_147339.html

The unfolding mayhem unleashed on Ukraine by Vladimir Putin carries one major benefit for China and two much larger losses, plus a boatload of secondary effects. The main benefit is geostrategic: The United States must now keep more scarce military resources in Europe, instead diverting them to the Pacific, as it had been hoping.

That diversion would be costly for any president, but it is particularly costly for a Democrat, whose party habitually scales back military budgets to spend more on social programs. Biden’s budget, submitted before the war in Eastern Europe, certainly did. He proposed a 16% rise in social spending but only a 2% increase for defense, far less than the inflation rate. Those priorities are now imperiled.

Also endangered is any reorientation of America’s defense posture, to focus almost exclusively on China. That focus, shared by Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and now Joe Biden, remains the country’s principal long-term challenge. But Putin’s aggression makes clear that the United States does not have the luxury of focusing on only one hostile (and nuclear-armed) power at a time. Russia’s war on Ukraine significantly raises the threat level in Europe and forces the Pentagon to avoid any drawdown there to fund increases in Asia. That’s true even though many of our NATO partners have finally agreed to spend 2% of their GDP on defense – a long-standing American demand. This renewed concern for Europe’s security is a potential gain for China.

https://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/insight/

War cannot happen in a vacuum. The tentacles of the hideous Russian invasion of Ukraine are reaching outward to involve not only the two parties in the conflict, but other countries and other policies.

Let’s start with the revived Iran nuclear deal meetings that have convened in Vienna. The U.S. administration has made no secret of the fact that it covets a deal and has been willing to provide benefits to Iran up front, including waiving sanctions on Iran’s “civilian” nuclear program. But Russia has been a major player in the negotiations; until now, Washington and Moscow had been coordinating their positions. As a historical competitor of Iran’s, Russia was not particularly interested in having Tehran produce nuclear weapons, so it was willing to push for certain U.S. points.

https://www.nysun.com/article/biden-resuming-role-of-dishonest-broker-in-middle-east?utm_content=The%20Evening%20Sun

The press is awash with negative comments about Israel’s policy on Ukraine. A rift is brewing between Washington and Jerusalem over the upcoming Iran nuclear deal. America’s ambassador in Jerusalem sharply attacks Israel’s policies. Is President Biden resuming a familiar role — that of a dishonest broker for Mideast peace?

It’s starting to look that way. This all stems from the prospect that American supporters of Israel are apt to become a political liability for Mr. Biden when he makes his concessions to Iran as part of a deal to renew the 2015 nuclear accord. The administration is beginning to distance itself from the Israeli government. 

Since the Vienna talks to renew the 2015 Iran deal resumed in the fall, Tehran has insisted that its terrorist arm, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, be removed from the State Department’s list of terrorist organizations. As diplomats close in on an agreement, America is reportedly prepared to make that concession. 

“Iran poses a threat to our allies, to our partners, in some cases to the United States,” the State Department spokesman, Ned Price, acknowledged Wednesday. Yet “the most urgent challenge we would face is a nuclear-armed Iran,” which, he suggests, is the reason diplomats prompted the deal in the first place.

Iranian missiles last week targeted an area near the American consulate at Erbil, in Iraqi Kurdistan. Rather than walk away from the Vienna talks, Washington officials leaked secondhand rumors that the Iranians hit an Israeli Mossad target. What in the world justifies that kind of blame-shifting?

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18333/iran-bad-deal

Having conspicuously failed in its efforts to prevent Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration looks set to add to its global reputation for weakness by agreeing yet another flawed nuclear deal with Iran.

Russia has been fully involved in the latest talks to revive the deal, as the negotiator for the US. Western negotiators have claimed that Moscow was effectively supporting Iran to withstand pressure from the US to make concessions.

Initially, Washington said it had no intention of offering Russia sanctions relief. But Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, speaking during a visit to Tehran this week, insisted that Moscow had received written guarantees from Washington that Western sanctions on Russia over Ukraine. The remark suggests Russia can continue trading with Iran in spite of US sanctions.

If true, the fact that Russia has assurances from Washington that sanctions will not affect its dealings with Iran is further evidence of the Biden administration’s desperation to reach a new agreement with Tehran….

[I]ntelligence experts believe Iran’s space programme [Iran just launched its second satellite into space] is being used to develop missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons.

“Iran’s nuclear programme has never before been this advanced, and is exposing the international community to unprecedented levels of risk.” — Corinne Kitsell, UK Permanent Representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency, March 8, 2022.

The problem for Mr Biden is that, by failing to address the very real threat posed by Iran’s nuclear ambitions, he will simply be presiding over a further erosion in America’s standing as a global power.

Having conspicuously failed in its efforts to prevent Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration looks set to add to its global reputation for weakness by agreeing yet another flawed nuclear deal with Iran.

https://amgreatness.com/2022/03/16/10-realities-of-ukraine/

One. Reassuring an enemy what one will not do ensures that the enemy will do just that and more. Unpredictability and occasional enigmatic silence bolster deterrence. But Joe Biden’s predictable reassurance to Russian President Vladimir Putin that he will show restraint means Putin likely will not. 

Two. No-fly zones don’t work in a big-power, symmetrical standoff. In a cost-benefit analysis, they are not worth the risk of shooting down the planes of a nuclear power. They usually do little to stop planes outside of such zones shooting missiles into them. Sending long-range, high-altitude anti-aircraft batteries to Ukraine to deny Russian air superiority is a far better way of regaining air parity.

Three. Europe, NATO members, and Germany in particular have de facto admitted that their past decades of shutting down nuclear plants, coal mines, and oil and gas fields have left Europe at the mercy of Russia. They are promising to rearm and meet their promised military contributions. By their actions, they are admitting that their critics, the United States in particular, were right, and they were dangerously wrong in empowering Putin.

Four. China is now pro-Russian. Beijing wants Russian natural resources at a discount. Russia will pay for overpriced access to Chinese finance, commerce, and markets. Yet if Russia loses the Ukraine war, goes broke, and as an international pariah is ostracized, then China will likely cut the smelly Russian albatross from its neck—in fear of new Western financial, cultural, and commercial clout.

Five. Americans are finally digesting just how destructive the humiliating flight from Afghanistan was. The catastrophe signaled to Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran that Western deterrence had died. 

No surprise that Russia sent missiles into a Ukrainian base near the Polish-NATO border. North Korea in January launched more missiles than in any month in its history. Iran sent missiles into Kurdistan. China daily announces it is just a matter of time until it absorbs Taiwan. The tens of billions of dollars of sophisticated weaponry sent to Ukraine by the West are still far less than what the U.S. military handed over to the terrorist Taliban.

Six. The Ukraine war did not cause inflation and record gas prices. Both were already spiking by early February 2022.