https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2020/11/net-zero-emissions-by-2050-theyre-dreaming/
The World Energy Outlook 2020 reveals that demand for coal in the Asia Pacific will grow in coming years and that a global target of net zero emissions by 2050 is unachievable in practice. The Outlook is the flagship report produced annually by the International Energy Agency (IEA). It provides “a comprehensive view of how the global energy system could develop in the coming decades.” This year’s report focusses on the next 10 years and “near-term actions that could accelerate clean energy transitions.”
Nick O’Malley, the Sydney Morning Herald’s National Environment and Climate editor, covered the Outlook report on October 14, 2020, under the headline “Old king coal dethroned by solar power.” He featured the report’s description of solar power as “the new king of electricity,” highlighted that in all four scenarios the IEA considered, “coal’s peak use has passed,” drew attention to coming peaks in oil demand, the question marks over the environmental credentials of gas, and noted that “investors are looking with increased scepticism at oil and gas projects.” He cited Tim Buckley, of the Institute for Energy Economics, as saying the IEA’s prediction for coal “deprives Australian state and federal governments of a crutch. They have relied on the IEA modelling in the past to say there was evidence of continued growth, so has the industry.”
The World Energy Outlook 2020 considers four scenarios over the timeframe to 2030. Its main one, the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), is based on today’s policy settings and an assumption that the COVID-19 pandemic is brought under control in 2021. In this scenario, global coal demand to 2030 stabilises at about current levels, which means it remains about 8 per cent lower than the pre-crisis levels. The reasons for this are “a combination of expanding renewables, cheap natural gas and coal phase-out policies” (emphasis added). That is, it is at least in part the outcome of deliberate anti-coal policies, not a free-market rebalancing of supply, demand, and price.