https://issuesinsights.com/2020/09/22/anyone-notice-that-the-trump-recovery-is-doing-much-better-than-expected/
A news report out on Monday said that 83% of companies in the S&P 500 beat expectations for earnings in the second quarter of the year, the first time that’s happened in more than a decade.
That’s been a common refrain over the past several months, as the economic recovery from the COVID-19 shutdowns has repeatedly outperformed what the “experts” expected. Here’s a sampling of headlines:
“US economy added 1.8m jobs in July, beating expectations”
“Jobs Numbers in July Beat Expectations for Third Straight Month”
“Corporate Earnings Beat Analysts’ Lowered Expectations”
“US consumer sentiment hit a 6-month high in September, beating economist forecasts”
“U.S. new home sales beat expectations in July”
In some cases, the difference between what economists were predicting at the start of the pandemic and what’s actually occurred is stark.
Take the forecasts for unemployment.
In March, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis projected the unemployment rate would top 32%.
That same month, Goldman Sachs said the unemployment rate will peak at around 15% later in the year.
A May survey of economists by FiveThirtyEight.com found that the median forecast for the May unemployment rate was 20%.
Even White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett predicted April’s unemployment rate would be 16-17%.
What actually happened?
The unemployment rate peaked in April at 14.7%, then dropped to 13.3% in May.