https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-problem-with-new-york-citys-covid-19-death-rate-estimates/
More on the continuing saga (see here, here, here and here) of the COVID-19 mortality rate — specifically, on why it is so hard to get accurate statistics, notwithstanding that these statistics are essential to decisions about reopening the economy.
Those of us who have been watching the daily numbers closely could not help but notice the dark cloud that drifted Tuesday over what was otherwise cautiously optimistic news. The number of coronavirus cases seems to be dropping, but deaths are suddenly spiking. Why?
It would overstate the matter to say that the tally of new cases is “plummeting,” but the drop has been noticeable: from a level of over 30,000 new cases per day from April 6 through April 11 (and, on three of those days, over 33,000 new cases), we’ve been down to about 27,000 on each of the three days since Sunday.
Initially, deaths also seemed to be dropping markedly: from around 2,000 per day from April 7 through April 11, down to about 1,500 on Sunday and Monday. Then, suddenly, deaths shot up on Tuesday, to 2,407, by far the highest one-day total yet (surpassing the previous high of 2,035 recorded on April 10).
What gives? Well, the main problem right now is New York. As governor Andrew Cuomo noted yesterday, although daily deaths seemed to be edging downward, below 700 on Monday for the first time in a week, they spiked up over 800 again on Tuesday. (Gov. Cuomo is nevertheless heartened by a decrease in hospitalizations, which will hopefully lead to a trend of declining cases and fatalities.) There were also marked daily death toll increases in New Jersey, Louisiana and Michigan, and less pronounced but noticeable increases in Massachusetts, Illinois, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Texas.