https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/this-is-a-not-a-panic-but-adjustment-to-a-mild-recession/
Financial panics occur when investors sell what they can, not what they want to. And that happens when they can’t finance their positions. Credit remains freely available for sound borrowers, and the rise in the cost of credit has been orderly – except for energy companies below investment grade.
There is no sign of sudden liquidation from popular exchange-traded funds that buy high yield debt, despite steep price declines. Equity multiples shrank and probably will shrink further as the market prices in a mild recession during 2020. But that’s a far cry from 2008, when major banks levered $2 trillion worth of phony AAA-rated securities sixty-to-one.
The stock market’s 15% fall from its February peak is painful, but not panicky. The coronavirus probably will cause a mild contraction of US economic activity during the second and third quarters, as travel and hospitality businesses shrink, consumers avoid shopping malls, and Americans, in general, save rather than spend as a precaution.
Consumer spending was the only significant source of US growth during 2019, as investment and manufacturing shrank in response to the incipient trade war. Strong economic data for the first two months of 2020, including an exceptionally large increase in February employment, indicated that the US economy was improving after the conclusion of a “Phase One” trade deal with China – before the coronavirus problem emerged.