Alarmed and Dangerous Peter Smith

https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2020/01/alarmed-and-dangerous/

Can we all agree that it is getting hotter? Facts matter and there is no point in agreeing on something that is wrong. However, the evidence seems clear to me. We now have 41 years of satellite data. I think we can rely on Roy Spencer and John Christy at the University of Alabama in ensuring that the NASA satellite measuring program under their purview is throwing up honest data.

That data from the end of 1978 until the end of 2019 shows a trend warming of 0.013 degrees per year; in total 0.54 degrees over the forty-one years. At this rate the temperature would rise by 1.33 over a century. This would represent an acceleration in warming when compared with HADCRUT 4 data (land and ocean) which shows a trend of just 0.90 degrees over the whole period from 1850 to the near end of 2019.

But a degree of caution is warranted in saying that the last forty-one years is a guide to the future. I looked at the forty-one years from the end of 1899 to the end of 1940 (when the global temperature had a local peak) and found using HADRUT data that the temperature had risen by 0.40 degrees. This provided no guide at all to the next forty-one years, when the recorded temperature actually fell by 0.17 degrees. At the same time, to be clear, ‘up’ is the dominant theme since 1850.

Why there is warming is a separate question. Some look to the activity of the sun. I don’t know, I haven’t read anything convincing. Are the larger conglomerations of cities having heat-island effects? I assume so. A scientist friend of mine hypothesizes that world-wide large-scale irrigation may be contributing to water vapor in the atmosphere and thus may be part of the explanation. Again, I don’t know – which is what I would like a lot more people, more qualified than I, to be saying rather than stymieing debate by pretending that everything is certain and settled.

The Killing of General Soleimani: Was it Right? J.R. Nyquist

https://jrnyquist.blog/2020/01/06/the-killing-of-general-soleimani-was-it-right/

There are many approaches to the subject of ethics. Aristotle said that we do not naturally possess goodness of character. Only by obedience to rules of valid conduct do we acquire such goodness. Does our national security establishment even know what goodness is? And was it right to assassinated General Soleimani?

Rightness of action, according to Aristotle, involves taking a middle path between a vice of deficiency and a vice of excess.

Now let us examine President Trump’s order to kill General Soleimani. As actions go, the killing partakes of the spheres of Fear and Confidence, Honor and dishonor (major), actuated through temper and truthfulness (or lies).

On the first of these dimensions, did President Trump act with rashness, courage or cowardice? We cannot say it was cowardly, because he publicly took responsibility for killing a high-ranking Iranian general. No coward would place himself in the crosshairs of a violent terrorist regime. The question is whether or not President Trump acted rashly (i.e., the vice of having too much confidence).

Is Trump over-confident? In terms of acceptable risk, a leader should not create a situation in which he is likely to be killed. Leaders are not invincible, immortal, supermen. Therefore it is not, in principle, wise to wage war with poison weapons, or to target enemy leaders, unless you are prepared to suffer the same fate as those you have targeted.

In principle, a policy of killing enemy leaders, which (I am sad to admit) the United States has followed intermittently since Pearl Harbor, exposes our own leaders to assassination. An example of how this works may be found in the case of President John Kennedy’s assassination. It is known that Kennedy ordered a hit on Cuban dictator Fidel Castro. It is also known that Castro learned of Kennedy’s order through a double agent (i.e., the prospective assassin), and said he knew about Kennedy’s hit when he visited the Brazilian Embassy in September 1963. These facts have been alluded to by famous persons, including President Lyndon Johnson and the chief of the CIA’s counterintelligence staff, James Angleton. It is believed by some intelligence experts that two communist bloc intelligence services (DGI and KGB) were complicit in Kennedy’s assassination; that the Soviets acted to defend Castro, preemptively, and to lay down the law to future American presidents. This action had the intended effect when President Gerald Ford instituted Executive Order 12333, prohibiting assassinations. Because President Ford understood why Kennedy was assassinated, he exercised prudence to safeguard the person of the president — reflecting the lesson of Dallas, learned on 22 November 1963. The lesson was simple: America should not attempt to assassinate foreign leaders or officials. President Carter and President Reagan affirmed Executive Order 12333 during their terms of office.

American Bases In Kurdistan: “Out Of The Box,” Take 2… by Gerald A. Honigman

Ankara has rendered the important American base at Incirlik all but useless.

Shi’a Arabs–who owe their ascendancy to America’s defeat of their various Sunni Arab tormentors–have told us our days are numbered in Iraq. The American-equipped Iraqi Shi’a army had earlier fled ISIS, leaving it many modern American weapons, and the Kurds were then mostly the only ones left resisting the Jihadis–only to be abandoned later by Washington afterwards…Shame!

So, what is America now to do?

For reasons of justice, practicality, and necessity, the time for American bases in Iraqi Kurdistan and an open embrace of Kurdish friends and allies has arrived….

We have supplied Arabs, Turks, Iranians, Pakistanis, Afghanis, and others with trillions of dollars in military and other aid and support since at least World War II–many who openly hate America. So doing likewise for a people who mostly like America should be a no-brainer.

For decades, most of the world has proclaimed the need for a second state for Arabs in the original post-World War I,1920 Mandate of Palestine. Since 1922, Jordan sits on almost 80% of that land. Arabs have nearly two dozen states today–most created by conquest and forced Arabization of other non-Arab peoples’ territories.

Around the same time that most of Palestine was gifted to Arab nationalism in one of its numerous subspecies, Kurds were promised independence in the northern part of the much larger Mandate of Mesopotamia. A collusion of British petroleum politics and Arab nationalism aborted those dreams…a solely Arab-dominated Iraq arose instead. Search “British Petroleum Politics, Arab Nationalism, and the Kurds” to see what you find…

Trump to Iran: Say Hello to My Little Friends By Rick Moran

https://pjmedia.com/trending/trump-to-iran-say-hello-to-my-little-friends/

When relations are as bad as they are between the U.S. and Iran, other ways must be found to communicate. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, Kennedy deployed overwhelming military strength off the coast of Cuba to signal to Khrushchev that the U.S. was ready for war if the Soviets made those missiles operational.

Donald Trump is also using non-verbal communication to talk to Iran. At Hill Air Force Base in Utah, 52 of the most awesome, the most advanced, the most deadly warplanes ever created — the F-35AII Lightning —  lined up and took off in what they refer to as an “elephant walk.”  It was the largest elephant walk in history.

What an awesome sight.

Xi’s China Ends 2019 With The Worst Religious Persecution In The Country’s History By Helen Raleigh

https://thefederalist.com/2020/01/07/xis-china-ends-2019-with-the-worst-religious-persecution-in-the-countrys-history/

Increased religious persecution in China has failed to curtail the growing number of Christians, which has reached more than 100 million today — more than the 90 million members of the Chinese Communist Party.

Dec. 30, 2019, was a day when people who live in the free world were busy planning ahead and getting ready for New Year’s Eve celebrations. But for China’s outspoken Wang Yi, the founding pastor of China’s most famous house church, the Early Rain Covenant Church, there was no such celebration. After being detained by Chinese authorities for more than a year without an actual charge, in a closed-door legal proceeding Wang was sentenced to nine years in prison for trumped up convictions of “inciting subversion of state power” and “illegal business activities.”

Throughout the proceeding, Wang’s lawyer wasn’t allowed to defend him. In addition to jail time, Wang will be stripped of his political rights for four years, and the Chinese government will confiscate about $7,000 worth of his personal assets. According to Bob Fu, president of China Aid, a U.S.-based nonprofit organization advocating for basic rights of Chinese Christians, Wang’s sentence is the harshest of any house church leaders in China.

Why Pastor Wang Engaged in ‘Faithful Disobedience’

I had first written about the injustice Wang and his church faced in early December 2019, which marked the one-year anniversary of his detainment. Wang and more than 100 of his church members were arrested during a raid just before Christmas, which the government initiated to “root out” a number of prominent Christians and house churches back in 2018.

Sense of foreboding darkens Democratic primary Many early-state Democrats are gripped by dread over recent headlines. The candidates are making it worse. By David Siders

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/07/democratic-primary-2020-095090

DAVENPORT, Iowa — The new year is taking the presidential primary to a dark place in the nation’s first caucus state.

President Donald Trump’s impending impeachment trial and fear of war with Iran — as well as the Australia wildfires and their implications for climate change — quickly cast a pall over a contest in which Democrats are already wracked with uncertainty about which candidate has the best chance of defeating Trump.

All across Iowa hangs an air of heightened distress, which the candidates are readily leaning into.

“I tell you all these things not to get you nervous, but to get you depressed,” Sen. Bernie Sanders, speaking about climate change, said at a town hall meeting in Grundy Center, Iowa, over the weekend.

Hours later in Des Moines, it was Joe Biden describing the state of Trump’s presidency more broadly as “extremely, extremely worrisome.” Sen. Elizabeth Warren admonished supporters in Davenport that “this is a time of crisis in this country.”

Democrats have fretted for more than a year about how to choose a nominee. And for those who loathe Trump, the imperative to remove him from office has remained high since the minute he won election in 2016.

Republicans Help Democrats Drain The U.S. Treasury From The Left Adam Andrzejewski

https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamandrzejewski/2020/12/31/republicans-help-democrats-drain-the-us-treasury-from-the-left/#3bdf62766529

Consensus and bipartisanship are rare in Washington, D.C. – except when it comes to spending taxpayer money. Since the end of the Obama era in 2016, the national debt has grown from $19.6 trillion to $23.2 trillion.

This year, in the days before Christmas during the bitter House impeachment battle, Republicans and Democrats quietly found common ground to pass a pair of omnibus spending bills totaling $1.4 trillion.

Once again, guns were paired with butter. Republicans received huge increases in defense spending and the Democrats got a massive domestic budget. The lobbyists rejoiced.

On December 21, House Democrats dropped the 2,313-page spending bill on the floor and passed it within 24-hours. Quickly, the bill was passed by the Republican Senate and signed by the President.

The legislation was loaded with pork, waste, and taxpayer giveaways. Here are some top line examples:

Stampede kills 56 at funeral for Iranian general slain by US Iranian state TV says a stampede at the funeral for a top general slain in a U.S. airstrike has killed 56 people and injured 213 others

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/thousands-prepare-bury-iranian-general-killed-us-68109548?cid=clicksource_4380645_null_headlines_hed

By NASSER KARIMI, AMIR VAHDAT and JON GAMBRELL

TEHRAN, Iran — A stampede broke out Tuesday at the funeral for a top Iranian general slain in a U.S. airstrike, and at least 56 people were killed and more than 200 were injured as thousands thronged the procession, Iranian news reports said.

The stampede took place in Kerman, the hometown of Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani, as the procession began, said Pirhossein Koulivand, head of Iran’s emergency medical services.

There was no information about what set off the crush. Online videos showed people lying apparently lifeless, their faces covered by clothing. Emergency crews performed CPR on others as people wailed and cried out to God.

“Unfortunately as a result of the stampede, some of our compatriots have been injured and some have been killed during the funeral processions,” Koulivand said.

State TV reported the death toll of 56, with 213 injured, citing Koulivand.

Soleimani’s burial was delayed, with no new time given, because of concerns about the massive crowd that had gathered, the semi-official ISNA news agency said.

A procession in Tehran on Monday drew over 1 million people in the Iranian capital, crowding both main avenues and side streets in Tehran. Such mass crowds can prove dangerous. A smaller stampede at the 1989 funeral for Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini killed at least eight people and injured hundreds.

Soleimani’s death in a drone strike Friday has sparked calls across Iran for revenge against America, drastically raising tensions in the Middle East. The U.S. government warned ships of an unspecified threat from Iran across the region’s waterways, crucial routes for global energy supplies. Meanwhile, the U.S. Air Force launched a drill with 52 fighter jets in Utah, just days after President Donald Trump threatened to hit 52 sites in Iran.

Earlier in the day, Hossein Salami, the new leader of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, vowed to avenge Soleimani’s death as he addressed a crowd of supporters gathered at the coffin in a central square in Kernan.

“We tell our enemies that we will retaliate but if they take another action we will set ablaze the places that they like and are passionate about,” Salami said.

“Death to Israel!” the crowd shouted in response. Israel is a longtime regional foe of Iran.

Enemy Combatant Terror Commanders Are Fair Game, Regardless of Whether Their Attacks Are ‘Imminent’ By Andrew C. McCarthy

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/01/qasem-soleimani-strike-enemy-combatant-terror-commanders-fair-game/

Last week, Iranian General Qasem Soleimani was killed in a targeted strike by U.S. forces authorized by President Trump. This preemptive attack has spawned a curious debate over whether Soleimani posed an imminent threat at the time he was taken out. The suggestion, mainly by partisan Democrats, is that it was illegitimate for the president to use lethal force without congressional authorization absent proof that Soleimani was on the cusp of killing Americans — or, better, killing even more Americans.

The debate puts me in mind of the early-to-mid 1990s, when our counterterrorism laws were dangerously flawed. Back then, sensible Democrats — as most of them were — knew that these defects had to be addressed. Rather than sound like apologists for anti-American jihadists, they took admirably expeditious action.

The problem emerged in the investigation of the proto-Qaeda terror network guided by the so-called Blind Sheikh, Omar Abdel Rahman. I was then a federal prosecutor and took over that investigation in Spring 1993. At the time, having just bombed the World Trade Center, the jihadists were actively plotting something even more monstrous: simultaneous attacks on the Lincoln and Holland Tunnels and the United Nations complex on Manhattan’s east side. The jihadists were also scouting additional landmarks in the city, including U.S. military facilities and the FBI’s downtown headquarters.

Tel Aviv’s mayor should be drowning in tears Ruthie Blum

https://www.jns.org/opinion/tel-avivs-mayor-should-be-drowning-in-tears/

An unfathomable tragedy struck a young couple, and what followed were statements of self-defense and partisan squabbling, instead of proper sorrow for two families.

The response of Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai to the unfathomable death of a young couple in his city over the weekend is nothing short of a disgrace. When details emerged of the way in which 25-year-old childhood sweethearts Din Shoshani and Stav Harari lost their lives on Saturday, Israelis across the nation were shocked, horrified and in tears. All except for Huldai, that is, who was too busy defending himself to express any remorse.

The unfathomable tragedy struck when Shoshani and Harari left their apartment in Shchunat Hatikva—a poor neighborhood in the southern part of the city that has become increasingly attractive to students and struggling artists—and took the elevator to the underground garage, where their car was parked. They had moved into the brand-new building only a couple of months earlier, renting the “penthouse” on the top floor.