https://issuesinsights.com/2019/12/06/trumps-unexpected-jobs-boom-leaves-dems-incoherent/
Job growth in November came in 79,000 higher than economists had expected, something that has become a regular occurrence under President Trump, where the economy has repeatedly defied what the “experts” forecast.
Just how big that gap is becomes clear when you look at longer-term forecasts these same experts made.
Take that jobs number. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are now a total of 152.2 million jobs in the U.S. That’s an increase of 6.8 million since Trump took office. Backers of President Obama will say that during the same 35-month stretch of Obama’s last term in office, the economy created 7.7 million jobs, so Trump is actually doing worse.
That’s misleading, at best. The economy was still coming back from a deep recession, which is when job growth should be robust. (In truth, post-recession job growth under Obama was one of the worst on record since the Great Depression.)
What matters is where economists saw the economy heading when Trump took office.
The Congressional Budget Office provides the answer. At the start of 2017, it released its 10-year economic forecast, which the CBO always boasts is right in the meaty part of the consensus of economists.
When it made its forecast, which assumed that nothing would change in terms of tax, regulatory, spending or any other policies, the CBO figured that the number of jobs created between January 2017 and today would be 2 million.
So Trump is doing better than expected on jobs by 4.8 million.