https://spectator.us/iran-us-confrontation-spiral-control-experts/
Escalation poses major risks for both Tehran and Washington — and they both know it
Politicians and policy experts tell us, with confidence, that America’s targeted killing of Qasem Soleimani makes the world safer — or more dangerous. Take your pick. Whatever answer they give, the talking heads sound very certain. They shouldn’t be. However deep their understanding of Iran, the Middle East, and US foreign policy, nobody really knows what will happen next.
The problem is simply too complex. It depends on a sequence of difficult decisions, first by Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and then by President Donald Trump, each responding to the other’s choices, each calculating the risks of going too far — or not far enough.
The next decision is Tehran’s. Khamenei and his advisers face enormous pressure to strike back after Soleimani’s death, both because he was so important and because the United States openly took credit for the killing. The Revolutionary Guard and its elite Quds Force, which Soleimani led, will demand decisive action. They work directly for the Ayatollah and are essential to the regime’s continuation. Their demands will surely resonate with the supreme leader. He knows, too, that a weak response would undermine the regime’s authority at home and its reputation across the region.
So, Khamenei is almost certain to act and to go beyond the opportunistic announcement that Iran will resume its nuclear enrichment program. The most fundamental question he faces is how far to go. Is he willing to risk a major military escalation, which could put the regime itself in jeopardy? The choice involves several related questions: should Iran act with its own military forces or rely on proxies and terrorist cells? How big should its actions be? Should it use its navy to block oil shipments through the Straits of Hormuz? Does Iran dare undertake the riskiest escalation of all, directly attacking American targets?