https://issuesinsights.com/2024/04/29/israel-has-chosen-the-least-bad-of-bad-alternatives/
History frequently offers insight into present-day events. Far too often that perspective is ignored either because of a lack of knowledge, the mistaken belief that it has no relevance in today’s world, or discomfort over the challenge that that knowledge presents. The war in Gaza does have an historical precedent, albeit one on a far grander scale.
Bear with us as we unpack the analogy …
As the endgame of World War II in mid-1945 became focused on the planning of “Operation Downfall,” the invasion of the Japanese homeland, the decision was made to deploy the first (and last) atomic weapons ever used in warfare. This was not a choice taken lightly and was repugnant to President Harry Truman and many of his advisers. But it was made based on a grim calculus comparing the hope that the bombs would force an immediate surrender (at a cost of more than 100,000 civilian lives), against the anticipated casualties and impact of an invasion of Japan’s home islands.
An article written by one of us (Dr. Miller) last year delves into the background. After experiencing 18,000 dead and 78,000 wounded in capturing Iwo Jima and Okinawa (two relatively small islands), the magnitude of the resistance was understood. And unlike in those battles, a mainland invasion would face troops who could be easily resupplied, making them even more difficult to dislodge.
In that 2023 article, a Marine four-star general and historian is quoted as saying there were no post-invasion plans for the six Marine divisions (each 23,000 strong) in Operation Downfall because they were expected to be decimated and non-functional after invading Honshu to make way for the Army. In other words, it was expected that just to commence the invasion, some 100,000 allied lives would be lost, along with far more Japanese killed. Estimates of subsequent American deaths neared 1 million, with at least 5 million Japanese expected to perish.