https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/biden-and-the-polls-hes-fallen-and-he-cant-get-up
BIDEN AND THE POLLS: HE’S FALLEN AND HE CAN’T GET UP. In an interview with the Financial Times, the longtime Washington political analyst Charlie Cook noted that President Joe Biden’s job approval rating has been stuck below 50% for a long time, 2 1/2 years, and shows no signs of rising above 50% anytime soon. “There seems to be virtually no elasticity there,” Cook said. “I wonder whether people have just changed the channel — they’ve just written him off.”
To understand what Cook said about “elasticity,” look at the Gallup Presidential Job Approval Center. Biden started his presidency, in January 2021, with a 57% approval rating. He stayed around that level until the beginning of the summer, and then the slide began. By July 2021, Biden fell below 50% for the first time and has never returned. He fell below 40% in July 2022 and is at 39% today.
For 2 1/2 years, Biden’s job approval has bounced in about an 8-point range between highs in the mid-40s and lows in the high 30s. That’s what Cook meant about lack of elasticity — Biden doesn’t seem to go up and down in relation to his accomplishments or lack of accomplishments. He just sort of sits there, like voters have written him off.
Some Biden supporters like to point out that former President Barack Obama had some tough times in the polls before he won reelection in 2012. Yes and no. Obama began his first term, in January 2009, on a huge high — 67% approval in the Gallup rating. But by November of that year, Obama had fallen below 50%. The difference between Obama and Biden is 1) Obama occasionally rose back to 50% or higher, as he did in February and April of 2010 and January and May of 2011, and 2) although Obama fell to 40% a few times, he never sank below that.
The great hope of Biden partisans is that he will rise in the polls as November’s election approaches, as Obama did in 2012. In late August of 2012, Obama sat at 44%. Then, as the general election campaign moved into high gear, Obama rose to 52% by October. That’s where he was when he defeated Republican challenger Mitt Romney and won a second term.
So can Biden replicate that feat? It seems safe to say, although not guaranteed, that his polls will increase in September and October, no matter whom he is facing as a Republican opponent. That just generally happens as Democrats and Republicans dig into their partisan positions with an election approaching. But where will Biden start from? Obama rose from 44% to 52% to win. What if he had started at 34% or even 38%? It would have been a much tougher job.