https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/11/07/exit_polls_show_suburbs_as_likely_2020_battlefield_138582.html
The battleground for the 2020 presidential election may have been mapped out by Tuesday’s midterms and exit polling shows it lies smack dab in the middle of America’s suburbs.
Nearly 50 percent of the electorate is suburban, which this year was evenly split between Republicans and Democrats — at 49 percent each — according to the National Election Poll, the exit poll of almost 19,000 respondents often cited by the national media. For the last two decades, suburban voters have leaned slightly Republican, as was the case in 2016 when Donald Trump outpolled Hillary Clinton by four percentage points. In contrast, urban voters supported Democrats by a 33-point margin in this year’s midterms, while Republicans carried rural areas by 14 points.
“There’s an old adage in demographics that density equals Democrats, but the Democrats are starting to show significant strength in the less dense suburbs,” said Karlyn Bowman, a demographics expert at the American Enterprise Institute. She predicted that “the suburbs will continue to be a competitive area of focus” in 2020.
Sarah Chamberlain, president of Main Street Republican Partnership, noted that “Republicans won or lost by a little bit — it wasn’t a blow-out in the suburbs.”
One of the biggest shifts in suburban voting patterns involves married women. In 2016, for the first time since exit polling began in 1980, married women slightly supported the Democratic presidential candidate, 49 to 47 percent. That shift became more pronounced this year with married women supporting Democrats by 54 percent to 44 percent. “Trump’s temperament and demeanor has exacerbated the movement of married women towards the Democrats,” said Bowman.