https://amgreatness.com/2023/08/18/smoke-and-mirrors-middle-east-diplomacy/
Despite recent media stories about two supposed Biden Administration foreign policy “wins” in the Middle East, a closer look indicates these wins are not what they seem and may harm U.S. national security.
One of the alleged wins concerns the Biden Administration’s effort to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. On August 9, the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. and Saudi officials agreed to a framework for a deal under which Saudi Arabia would recognize Israel in exchange for Israeli, Saudi, and American concessions. Although Biden Administration officials said this agreement would take nine months to a year to finalize and faced long odds, they also described it as potentially “the most momentous Middle East peace deal in a generation.”
Another alleged Biden foreign policy win, announced on August 10, is a tentative deal to swap American and Iranian prisoners in exchange for unfreezing $6 billion of Iranian assets held by a South Korean bank. Biden officials said these funds would go through a Qatari bank to ensure they are used only for humanitarian purposes. Five Americans have been released from an Iranian prison under the deal but are under house arrest in Iran until an agreement allowing them to leave the country is finalized.
On the surface, both initiatives appear to be diplomatic breakthroughs. But a closer look indicates the Biden Administration is trying to claim credit for dubious, unfinished agreements and hide some dangerous details from the American public and Congress.
The alleged Saudi/Israel normalization agreement is years away if it ever occurs because it is based on many conditions that will be impossible to meet. Although Congress might agree to the enhanced security assurances that would be part of the agreement, it is very unlikely to approve Saudi Arabia’s demand that the U.S. help it develop a nuclear power program that includes uranium enrichment.
There are other major obstacles to a normalization agreement. For example, the Saudis want concessions from Israel to advance an eventual peace agreement with the Palestinians. Israeli officials say they are open to this but will not agree to a Saudi demand for Palestinian statehood. It is improbable that Palestinian leaders will agree to a new deal without this concession and probably will not agree to any agreement because of their long history of rejecting Israeli peace offers.
The Biden Administration also wants Saudi Arabia to substantially cut back its growing relationship with China as part of a normalization agreement, including not permitting China to establish military bases in the country, not using sensitive technology from Chinese companies like Huawei, and not allowing China to purchase oil with Chinese currency.