RUTHFULLY YOURS

Why should you be interested in the French presidential campaign? Because it might as well be going on next door to you. We are facing the same major challenges in a similar state of confusion. The differences are circumstantial, the stakes are the same. Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Liberté, égalité, fraternité. Our freedom is on the line.

Besides, this cliffhanging French campaign is a fascinating mixture of Shakespear, Greek tragedy, soap opera, and courtly intrigues.

First, a brief summary of the overall situation: The incumbent Socialist president, François Hollande, didn’t dare run for reelection. His 5 year-term has been a disaster, the Socialist party is in a shambles, the winner of the (Belle Alliance Populaire) primary, Benoît Hamon, is a Kinder Surprise with goodies for all the small people paid for by the Big Bad Rich. He has no chance of getting to the 2nd round. ID: Socialist

The callow 38 year-old Emmanuel Macron, generally assumed to make it past the first round (April 23) to confront and defeat Marine Le Pen in the second round (May 7), is running on a vacuous Somewhat Right Somewhat Left platform. How did the fabulously unpopular François Hollande manage to place his alter ego in pole position while standing aside in studied absence as the cream of the Socialist party boards Macron’s cruise ship? ID: En Marche

François Fillon, who served for five years as Nicolas Sarkozy’s prime minister, came out of the Primaries (Right and Center-Right) with a strong mandate, upsetting the media’s favorite Alain Juppé, and polling above Macron and Le Pen. Then, out of the blue, Fillon was hit with a sensational smear campaign and a judicial ton of bricks that would have crushed a weaker constitution. The character assassination putsch against Fillon is the centerpiece of an extraordinarily dramatic campaign. It will be treated briefly below and more amply in Part 2 of this ongoing series. Fillon’s platform is built on a Thatcherite revolution aimed at releasing France from decades of stagnation and double digit unemployment, and a resolute combat against Islamic Totalitarianism at home and abroad. ID: Les Républicains.

And then there is Marine Le Pen. ID: Front National

The top issue on the list of voter preoccupations in February, whether expressed directly or indirectly, was Islam. They wanted to know where candidates stood on the question. Would it be sweet submission or tough resistance? Instead of the issue-based campaign they clearly wanted, voters have been dragged into the quicksand of moralizing purification-aimed at eliminating François Fillon-and thrown a lifesaver attached to the gossamer rope of the Little Prince Emmanuel Macron.

“The problem in Europe is that there are far too many people in uniform, and too few of them able to go into action.” — NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson.

“A majority of the German public opposes combat missions, and supports the Bundeswehr [German military] only as a quasi-humanitarian organization, a kind of Médecins Sans Frontières with guns”. — Konstantin Richter, Politico.eu.

The relative abundance enjoyed by the Western post-war generations have created a kind of shame instead of pride.

It has been said that when German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer signed the reconstitution of the military in 1955, he proclaimed: “It is crazy, gentlemen, that I have to create a German army, it is just crazy”.

Sixty years have passed, but that sentiment still seems very strong in Germany. A few days ago Sigmar Gabriel, the German foreign minister, said: “We have to be a bit careful here that we don’t over-interpret the 2 percent target.” Gabriel then became clearer: “Maintain perspective, stay focused on the target, but avoid being consumed by the bliss of a new rearmament spiral!”

A few days earlier, Germany had made an announcement: to raise the number of soldiers from 170,000 to 198,000 by 2024 — a modest “rearmament”.

It is a direct consequence of the Trump Administration’s important pressure on European allies, urging them to invest more in defense and security. European armies have become, to quote The Economist, “Potemkin Euro-armies”. Germany’s views are crucial to understanding Europe’s attitude about security and defense. Germany, the world’s fourth-largest economy and Europe’s financial giant, is a military dwarf, proud of being weak and disarmed.

Take the countries which suffered most of terror attacks in the last two years. Belgium? It spends 0.85% of its gross domestic product on defense. France? 1.78%. Germany? 1.19%. Spain, which in 2004 experienced the most severe attack in Europe’s recent history? 0.94%.

Europe is enjoying a big siesta. It is disarmed not only militarly but also mentally. Seventy-five percent of Belgium’s military spending goes to pay army pensions. As NATO’s Secretary General Lord Robertson put it, “The problem in Europe is that there are far too many people in uniform, and too few of them able to go into action.”

Another NATO official, Joseph Ralston, the former supreme commander for Europe, defined European armies as “fat and redundant”.

These countries have all embraced the moral vanity of pacifism.

Thanks to it, Germany’s military supply depots are now almost completely empty, according to the newspaper, Die Welt. Possibly fearing a “rearmament spiral”, Germany in fact ended up with a shy army with no drums.

LONDON—The U.K. on Wednesday is set to make official its planned exit from the European Union, starting on an unprecedented path to reshape its relationship with its closest allies in some of the most complex negotiations the country has ever undertaken.

Nine months after Britain voted to leave the EU, Tim Barrow, Britain’s ambassador to the bloc, is expected to hand deliver a letter to European Council President Donald Tusk formally notifying the bloc that the U.K. will be the first country ever to leave. U.K. government officials say there is no going back from there.

“It is my fierce determination to get the right deal for every single person in this country,” Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to say in a speech to Parliament after the letter is delivered, according to excerpts from her office.

Managing Britain’s exit will be a major political test for Mrs. May, who has only a small majority in Parliament. She​faces competing pressure from​lawmakers on the right wing of her Conservative​party​who want a complete cutting of ties with Brussels and​from​politicians in Scotland, who say they will secede from the U.K. if Mrs. May fails to cut a deal that maintains close​trade ties.

SEOUL—New commercial satellite imagery suggests that North Korea is preparing to test its sixth nuclear device, as the U.S. and Chinese leaders plan to meet next month on how to contain Pyongyang’s weapons program.

An analysis of commercial satellite imagery released on Tuesday by North Korea experts showed signs of activity at the nuclear test site at Punggye-ri in the country’s northeast, where North Korea had previously conducted tests.

Joseph Bermudez and Jack Liu, analysts for 38 North, said the imagery, taken on March 25, suggested that communications cables had recently been laid, and that water had been drained, at an entrance to an underground site.

That evidence “strongly suggests that test preparations are well under way,” said the men, writing for 38 North, a North Korea-focused website run by the U.S.-Korea Institute of the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies in Washington.

The analysts cautioned, however, that the apparent actions may be an effort to deceive experts monitoring North Korea’s nuclear test site for signs of activity.

North Korea has a history of timing internationally banned tests for maximum impact. If often launches missiles during joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises to protest them and bolster domestic support.

In January, Pyongyang launched a ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan Mr. Trump met with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the American leader’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.

Mr. Trump is tentatively scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Florida next month. No official itinerary has been released.