Everything is up for grabs. No one can predict the outcome of the Republicans’ unplanned and uncontrolled stab at an on-the-run renaissance. Whatever happens, it is almost certain to affect Republicans and the American centre-Right for a generation.
One of John Howard’s many virtues was his ability to stamp on populist political movements. He dispatched the “Joh for PM” circus in 1987 and asphyxiated Pauline Hanson’s One Nation in the late 1990s. Howard was a master of judicious centre-Right liberal-conservatism.[1] He had no toleration for the capricious and illiberal character of populist politics. Bjelke-Petersen’s and Hanson’s movements both originated in Queensland. Ditto, the Palmer United Party, the political vehicle of a blustering self-proclaimed billionaire with a penchant for crony capitalism and state largesse. Like modern clothing labels, populism is emblazoned with its creator’s name: Pauline Hanson’s United Australia Party; the Palmer United Party.
By its nature populism is anti-institutional. It downplays party and parliamentary organisation. It favours leaders who have strong media personalities and communicate directly with the general population. The first of these historically was William Jennings Bryan. A magnetic and obsessive public speaker, Bryan captured the US Democratic Party presidential ticket a remarkable three times, in 1896, 1900 and 1908, despite never winning the presidency. Populist politics have been common in Latin America since the 1930s and emerged in Europe after 1945. Populism today is on the rise internationally. In recent elections in Europe the Danish People’s Party won 25 per cent of the vote, the UK Independence Party 12 per cent, Austria’s Freedom Party 20 per cent, France’s National Front 17 per cent, and Norway’s Progress Party 16 per cent. In the wake of Angela Merkel’s open-borders policy folly, the neophyte Alternative for Germany Party received between 12 and 24 per cent in the 2016 state elections. Although these figures fall well short of governing majorities, they indicate populism’s capacity to mobilise votes.
What’s the source of attraction? Almost all discussions of successful populist parties describe their leaders as “charismatic”. Charisma is a hard word to nail down. It suggests an aura around these party leaders but doesn’t explain what produces it. This is not religious charisma. All the same it has a mystery character. It is enigmatic. The enigma lies in the way populists defy the standard polarities of democratic politics: socialist v liberal, liberal v conservative, labour v conservative; in short left v right. Populism plays havoc with these orthodox dichotomies.
Populists don’t fit the pattern. Unsurprisingly then they invariably describe themselves as anti-establishment—that is, as standing outside regular politics. The Left-Right paradigm doesn’t explain them. We see some of this in the first prominent populist, Bryan. He was a theologically fundamentalist Presbyterian elder whose main political effect was to destroy the power of the free-market Bourbon Democrats and rally opposition to US intervention abroad. Populists are often depicted as being on the “hard”, “radical” or “far” Right. In reality they cross over between the boisterous Left and Right or (less commonly) between classic liberalism and national conservatism. They are politically perplexing as a result. Because they are anti-institutional, populist parties necessarily rely on charismatic leadership. Populist leaders appeal over the head of institutions directly to electorates through the media. Populism cannot succeed unless it can focus media attention on the personality of the leader. National Front leader Jean-Marie Le Pen first achieved a significant vote in the 1984 French elections only after François Mitterrand lifted the
