The Iowa caucuses served their usual function in winnowing down the field of candidates to a more manageable number, and a smaller number of realistic possibilities for the nomination. On the Democratic side, barring an indictment for her private server issues with classified information sent and received, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remains the overwhelming favorite to be nominated. It is not, however, a sign of strength that she could only win half the vote in Iowa against Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, a 74-year-old curmudgeonly socialist, who was not even a Democratic Party member until 2015. Clinton appears to lack pretty much all the political skills of her husband and is running a campaign reminiscent of 2008 when she campaigned as if she were entitled to the nomination, and greatly underestimated the threat of Barack Obama. More than half of Americans do not trust her, and she has provided plenty of ammunition to the doubters.
The Republican race has settled into a contest between three leading contenders — Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, businessman/reality TV star Donald Trump and a few pretenders — former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Ohio Governor John Kasich, businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson. Christie and Kasich have been living in New Hampshire the past few months, much as Ted Cruz did in Iowa, but without gaining the same traction. A Bush super PAC has been blasting Rubio for months, with some damage done to Rubio but no noticeable gain for Bush. The results in Iowa — a win for Cruz, with Trump second and Rubio a closer-than-expected third, has shaken up both the state and national polls. A new national poll has Trump at 25%, and Cruz and Rubio at 21% each.
In a week, Cruz has stayed where he was, despite the Iowa victory, and Rubio has doubled his share, almost all at Trump’s expense. Trump’s campaign has been largely based on the fact that he is a winner, will make America win again and he is winning in all the polls. When the first actual votes did not deliver a win for Trump, a good bit of the bubble was burst.