GDP Numbers Point to a Recession Just in Time for the 2024 Presidential Election By Rick Moran

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/rick-moran/2023/04/27/gdp-numbers-point-to-a-recession-just-in-time-for-the-2024-presidential-election-n1690868

The Republicans should borrow a page from the Democratic playbook and have signs printed up saying, “It’s the economy, stupid,” plastering them all over the country. The mirage of the Biden economy is beginning to dissipate as $5 trillion in stimulus spending peters out and the economy begins to slide into what will hopefully be a short recession.

The pre-COVID economy gave Biden a solid foundation that he promptly squandered in trillions of dollars of wasteful and unnecessary spending. His “stimulus” ended up stimulating inflation that destroyed ordinary people’s savings and reduced the standard of living for millions of Americans.

The economy grew 3.2% from July through September and 2.6% from October through November. The latest GDP number shows sluggish growth of 1.1% — and the biggest news out of the BLS is the pummeling taken by the housing market.

“This morning’s data was the worst of both worlds, with growth down and inflation up,” Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, said in a client note.

The Fed has raised interest rates nine times over the past year as Jerome Powell has put the screws to the economy hoping to tame inflation. Inflation has come down some, but the underlying numbers are terrible, leading to an expectation that the Fed’s rate hikes aren’t done yet.

An economic model used by the Conference Board puts the probability of a U.S. recession over the next year at 99%.

The Unions’ Heavy Grifting And the growing seeds of resistance. by Larry Sand

https://www.frontpagemag.com/the-unions-heavy-grifting/

Over the years, the unions, especially the public employee variety, have heaped abuses on just about all of us. But finally, there are the seeds of resistance.

Tax exempt status

For starters, as 501(c)(5)s, unions have a special tax-exempt status with the IRS that is accorded to “Labor, Agricultural, and Horticultural Organizations.” As Mike Antonucci reports, the National Education Association took in $375 million during the 2019-20 school year, all of it tax-free. Additionally, the NEA sold more than $209 million of its stocks and securities during the year, but the union is also excused from paying capital gains taxes.

Antonucci further explains that the NEA doesn’t operate entirely tax-free. It still must pay income tax on “unrelated business income.” For example, revenue from businesses placing ads in NEA publications, book sales, etc. All told, the union paid $7.2 million in direct taxes of all types on more than $603 million in gross revenue in 2019-20 – an effective tax rate of 1.2 percent.

The NEA also has no sense of hypocrisy. At the same time the union benefits from this egregious tax exemption, it came out with a “playbook” in 2020. In the “Tax Fairness” section of the manifesto, the union maintains that we need to repeal or amend tax breaks for the wealthy and corporations, and replace them with a progressive tax system. The NEA also opposes “tax loopholes or giveaways that reduce revenues and shelter corporations and high-income individuals from paying taxes.”

Release time

Then we have the quaint notion of “release time” or, perhaps more accurately, “union time, taxpayer dime,” which is common at all levels of government. This swindle allows public employees to conduct union business during working hours, with the taxpayer footing the bill. These activities include negotiating contracts, lobbying, processing grievances, and attending union meetings and conferences.

A 2020 Goldwater Institute policy report detailed the pervasive nature of release time provisions in union contracts. This bit of thievery costs taxpayers millions of dollars annually and forces them to fund private union activities, which are very often political in nature and work against the interests of the taxpayers. Even more painful is the fact that many local governments don’t bother tracking release time, meaning this corrupt practice is often carried out in secret.

How the West Is Helping Train China’s Military by Robert Williams

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19555/west-training-china-military

China is reportedly recruiting former air force pilots from the West to understand better how Western military aircraft and pilots operate. Up to 30 former UK military pilots are believed to have traveled to China since 2019 to work as instructors in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

“It’s taking Western pilots of great experience to help develop Chinese military air force tactics and capabilities. Money is a strong motivator.” — Unnamed Western official, BBC, October 28, 2022.

“It was very specific that it had to be frontline military aviators in current flying practice…. why send military pilots rather than teachers?” — Sky News, October 28, 2022.

Perhaps most incredibly, the US Army, as late as November 2020, conducted the Disaster Management Exchange (online, due to coronavirus) with China’s PLA…. Unbelievably, the November 2020 remote exercise took place just one month after President Donald Trump’s National Security Adviser, Robert O’Brien, had pronounced China to be the threat of the century….

China is reportedly recruiting former air force pilots from the West to understand better how Western military aircraft and pilots operate. Up to 30 former UK military pilots are believed to have traveled to China since 2019 to work as instructors in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

Our Singular Century How to connect the dots when they’re spinning out of control by Walter Russell Mead

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/our-singular-century-walter-russell-mead-via-meadia

The American historian Henry Adams was the son of Charles Francis Adams, Abraham Lincoln’s ambassador to Britain during the Civil War who was charged with keeping Britain from intervening on the side of the South. Henry was the grandson of President John Quincy Adams and the great-grandson of President John Adams. Born in 1838 when the railroad was still a novelty, he died in 1918. His histories of the Jefferson and Madison administrations are still read with respect.

It was the acceleration of historical change more than the fact of it that increasingly fascinated Adams as he watched the Industrial Revolution and its associated dislocations unfold around him. Late in his life he set himself the task of quantifying, so far as this was possible, the rate of change as measured by the total amount of physical force that human beings could control. His results have fascinated me for years.

What he found is what we can call the Adams curve. Wind power and human and animal muscle power were the resources at humanity’s disposal for much of our history, and the amount of force humanity could generate grew slowly with population and a slow increase in the mastery of natural forces.

After 1600 his estimates showed the beginning of a faster increase in humanity’s power. The increase visibly accelerates between 1700 and 1800, and between 1800 and 1900 the flat line of earlier centuries takes the shape of a hyperbola as the rate of increase in human power reached for the sky. As Adams put it, “The world did not double or treble its movement between 1800 and 1900, but, measured by any standard known to science—by horse-power, calories, volts, mass in any shape—the tension and vibration and volume and so-called progression of society were fully a thousand times greater in 1900 than in 1800.”

Looking ahead, Adams saw only more of the same, with the curve of human progress becoming more hyperbolic as it became more nearly a vertical line moving straight up the graph. The historian, whose early recollections included walking hand in hand with his grandfather John Quincy Adams to the town school, looked forward to an unrecognizable future in which the gap between pure thought and the material world would close sometime around 2025.

Dr Richard Lindzen exposes climate change as a politicised power play motivated by malice and profit

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/04/27/dr-richard-lindzen-exposes-climate-change-as-a-politicised-power-play-motivated-by-malice-and-profit/

Veteran climate expert Dr Richard Lindzen made a name for himself before the fundamentally flawed field of climate science that we know today was invented. In an interview with the pioneering atmospheric physicist and former emeritus professor of meteorology at MIT, he recounted events that occurred in the 1980s, which gave birth to the all-consuming climate change narrative that prevails today.

Having begun his research on climate change in the mid-70s motivated by a sincere interest in understanding the Earth’s climate regimes, Lindzen’s assessment of the various elements paraded as scientific evidence of an impending climate catastrophe is remarkably sensible.

What’s particularly revealing from his recollection of events is how complicit the media and politicians have been in forcing the disastrous climate change narrative upon an unsuspecting and trusting public from the very beginning.

Bidenomics: Recession, Return To ’70s-Style Stagflation, Or Both?

https://issuesinsights.com/2023/04/28/bidenomics-recession-return-to-70s-style-stagflation-or-both/

Americans expecting a better economy to emerge three years after the COVID shutdowns will no doubt be disappointed by the first quarter’s GDP gain of just 1.1% with higher inflation. And it’s even worse than it looks.

Of course, President Joe Biden denied the worsening news, saying, “Today, we learned that the American economy remains strong, as it transitions to steady and stable growth.”

“Strong”? Really? No one believes that. As recently as late March, economists were looking for a first-quarter GDP growth number exceeding 3%. Instead, they got 1.1%, down from 2.6% in the fourth quarter and 3.2% in last year’s third quarter.

See the trend?

It’s no accident. The Fed, responding to 9%-plus inflation during the COVID “emergency,” has jacked up interest rates to 5% from near zero, and is expected to add another quarter point in early May during its meeting.

More ominously, a big part of the Q1 GDP slowdown came from businesses reducing their inventories and, for the fourth quarter in a row, their capital investments. Typically, businesses do that only when they expect really rough times ahead.

Civilizational Killers. Part Two. Debt and Inflation Victor Davis Hanson

https://victorhanson.com/civilizational-killers-part-two-debt-and-inflation/

Debt and its twin inflation destroy civilizations. Ancient coins were sometimes called “redheads” as the raised impressed silhouettes of grandees stamped on “silver” coins were the first to have their silver veneers worn away revealing the “red” bronze beneath.

Our paper money is similarly becoming less and less valuable, the more we print of it. Currently, the U.S. owes 130 percent of its gross domestic product, in total about $33 trillion.

The staggering sum has not stopped annual federal borrowing, which may hit $2 trillion this year. The massive borrowing is unsustainable. Yet anyone who tries to cut the massive indebtedness will be smeared as cruel and insensitive.

America apparently shrugs that when the nation faces insolvency, we will deal with the catastrophe the way it is done in the Third World and in antiquity.

One, the state can always pay off its debts by printing endless money and inflating the economy. Germany did that by intent to pay off war reparations to the victorious allies by printing Reichsmarks to the point that they became utterly worthless.

Civilizational Killers. Part One. Perversion of the Law Victor Davis Hanson

https://victorhanson.com/civilizational-killers-part-one-perversion-of-the-law/

No civilization can continue if its bedrock values and institutions are eroding—especially if the effort to save them is considered worse than their destruction.

When we look to the civilizational decline of the Greek polis, the Roman Empire, the Byzantine Empire, or of Europe in the 1930s we learn that erosion is a result of internal choices, and usually a matter of failing to adhere to time-honored customs and traditions, while evolving to meet new threats.

In the case of the autonomous Greek polis, the culprit was the inability of some 1,500 city-states to create a workable federal system for the common defense of Hellas—when threatened by Philip and Alexander. The Roman Empire was not able to maintain a common culture among its 70 million varied residents, nor to increase productivity to pay for always greater entitlements, or to systematize imperial succession, or inculcate Romanity among an increasingly diverse population.

For the Byzantines, it is hard to criticize an empire that sustained 1,100 years of continuous civilization. But in the fifteenth century, it failed to evolve into a partnership with a dynamic Western Christendom, especially after the damage suffered during the Fourth Crusade, to create a common front against Ottoman Islamism. Nor was a shrinking Constantinople able to attract Europeans into the empire, much less to convert Anatolians into Orthodox Christians.

Hijacked : The Capture of America’s Middle East Studies Centers by Neetu Arnold

https://www.nas.org/reports/hijacked?utm_source=commentary&utm_medium=banner&utm_campaign=hijacked&utm_content=box

America’s Middle East Studies Centers were originally founded to study the politics, culture, and language of Middle Eastern nations. But our analyses and case studies demonstrate that Middle East centers have since shifted their focus to promoting left-wing ideologies. Hijacked: The Capture of America’s Middle East Studies Centers tells the story of how such research can become captured by activist faculty and foreign governments.

In documenting the history of MESCs and the financial arrangements that allow foreign donations to flow to American Universities, Hijacked also offers recommendations to reform Middle East Studies Centers.

The Miracle at 75 by Meir Y. Soloveichik

https://www.commentary.org/articles/meir-soloveichik/miracle-of-israel-at-75/

In 1949, nine months after the State of Israel was formally recognized by both U.S. President Truman and Soviet Premier Josef Stalin, Britain refused to acknowledge the existence of the first Jewish commonwealth to appear on the earth in 2,000 years. The Labor foreign minister, Ernest Bevin, known for his antipathy to Zionism, refused to consider that a fledgling Jewish state should be of interest when it was opposed by so many countries that seemed to matter more to Britain. In response, the leader of the opposition, Winston Churchill, stood in Parliament and delivered one of his addresses for the ages. He accused Bevin of presentism, of maintaining a stunted historical perspective. 

“Whether the right honorable gentleman likes it or not,” Churchill said, “the coming into being of a Jewish state in Palestine is an event in world history to be viewed in the perspective, not of a generation or a century, but in the perspective of a thousand, two thousand or even three thousand years. That is a standard of temporal values or time-values which seems very much out of accord with the perpetual click-clack of our rapidly changing moods and of the age in which we live. This is an event in world history.”

Churchill’s words are worth bearing in mind as we consider the contretemps over judicial reform in Israel as the nation moves toward the 75th anniversary of its inception. In the midst of all of the rancor, it is easy to overlook how remarkable, from a historical perspective, this anniversary actually is. It should be obvious, of course, that Israel’s birth was astounding: that, as Paul Johnson reflected in these pages, while 100 states came into being in the 20th century, only Israel’s birth counts as a miracle. But as we mark 75 years of a modern Jewish state, a study of history reveals another fascinating fact: This might be the most stable 75 years of government that the Jewish people have had in Jerusalem in all of Jewish history. 

Can this be? Consider: Several thousand years ago, David first conquered Jerusalem and made it his capital and was soon after temporarily overthrown by his son Absalom. David was forced to flee the city, returning only after he had conquered and defeated his son’s forces. Solomon succeeded his father and ruled in peace and prosperity, whereupon the Israelite monarchy summarily split between kingdoms north and south, which is how the Holy Land remained until its conquest by Assyria and Babylon.