Say this about Vladimir Putin. The Russian strongman has taken the measure of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Obama. He knows they dread a showdown over Ukraine, so he is ignoring their rhetorical protests and moving to carve out even more of Ukraine for Greater Russia.
That’s the meaning of the Kremlin’s decision this week to move Russian forces into the Ukrainian coastal town of Novoazovsk while shoring up Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. A NATO official said “well over” 1,000 Russian troops, backed by heavy armor, have joined the separatists in fighting Ukraine’s military.
The Kiev government is calling this an “invasion,” while NATO clings to “incursion,” but that’s a distinction without a difference. Russia invaded Ukraine in February by grabbing Crimea. It has since escalated its military intervention in multiple ways, including with special forces and by firing artillery at Ukrainian positions from both Russian territory and inside Ukraine. If Spanish-speaking men in army garb grabbed El Paso and Mexican artillery fired at the Texas National Guard, Americans would call it an invasion.
The strategy behind Mr. Putin’s move into Ukraine’s southern coast is to open a land bridge between Russia and Crimea. The goal is to reduce Crimea’s isolation so Russian military garrisons can be reinforced by land instead of by air, and the peninsula’s economy can be knit more closely to Russia’s.
The escalation also opens up another front for the Ukrainian military as it tries to regain control over the east. Ukraine’s military has been making progress against the separatist forces occupying Donetsk and Luhansk, and Mr. Putin may figure he had to act now to prevent the rebels from being overrun. Kiev’s forces will now have to fight on a third front against Russian soldiers and armor.
The timing is notable, but not surprising, on the heels of the much-ballyhooed Tuesday meeting between Mr. Putin and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. Western Europeans, in their desire to have this crisis go away, had hoped the meeting would yield progress toward a negotiating solution.