http://www.frontpagemag.com/2014/andrew-harrod/the-way-to-peace-emet-vs-j-street/print/
Some policymakers “shape policy while intoxicated” when it comes to the Middle East, former Israeli Ambassador Yoram Ettinger recently observed at a Capitol Hill briefing. Ettinger’s remarks emphasizing Israeli power undergirding Middle East peace unwittingly contrasted with other speakers the following day who place hardly substantiated hopes in diplomatic agreements.
Ettinger addressed issues of Israel’s Jewish demography and Iran’s nuclear threat at a March 25, 2014, briefing at the U.S. Capitol Visitor Center sponsored by the Endowment for Middle East Truth (EMET). Drawing upon past research by him and others, Ettinger in particular rejected a “demography of doom” consigning Jews to a minority status in the Holy Land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. A “maxim oft-cited on Capitol Hill” is a longstanding prediction of an ultimate Arab ascendancy in this area, according to EMET President Sarah Stern.
Yet Ettinger calculated that Jews in the combined Israeli and Palestinian territories excluding Gaza formed a 66% demographic majority. This majority would only grow through what Stern described as “Jewish demographic momentum” and Arab “demographic fatalism,” as measured by birthrate and immigration. Confidence in such a Jewish majority significantly affected Israeli willingness to make territorial concessions for the sake of an oft-invoked Two State Solution (TSS) to the Arab-Israeli conflict, which would create a Palestinian state alongside Israel.
“The number one interest must not be peace, the number one interest must be security,” Ettinger argued when discussion turned specifically to a peace settlement with Israel during audience questioning. “There is no such thing as peace-driven security” in the Middle East he elaborated, only “security-driven peace.” Demanding a “realistic” approach to the “two state delusion,” Ettinger declared that in any Middle East peace process the “aim should never be the production of a document.” While Western society views contracts as binding, in the Middle East “agreements are not carved in stone; they are signed in ice.”
An agreement might last ten, 15, or even 60 years, but can easily fall victim to political turmoil, as events in Egypt and elsewhere indicated during the “Arab Tsunami.” Particularly in Israel’s case, if “you’ve lost the Golan Heights, the piece of paper you have is worthless.” A “disastrous impact” would also come from Israeli abandonment of the Jordan Valley heights.