Ambassador (Ret.) Yoram Ettinger has been demonstrating this fact for years with his demographic research….rsk
Uri Sadot, Foreign Policy. Contrary to dire predictions of a “demographic time bomb,” Israeli Jews have a healthy and largely stable demographic majority in Israel and the West Bank.
http://mosaicmagazine.com/picks/2013/12/the-demographic-myth/?utm_source=Mosaic+Daily+Email&utm_campaign=ecb37301d1-Mosaic_2013_12_20&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0b0517b2ab-ecb37301d1-41165129
If you listen to some top American and Israeli officials, Israel’s “demographic time bomb” is ticking — and it’s set to explode any day now. Secretary of State John Kerry warned on Dec. 7 that Israel’s demographic dynamics represented an “existential threat … that makes it impossible for Israel to preserve its future as a democratic, Jewish state.” Some officials in Jerusalem agree with him: Israeli opposition leader Isaac Herzog and senior Cabinet member Yair Lapid last week echoed similar concerns that demographic trends would turn Israel into a “bi-national state.” On all three occasions, demography was cited as an urgent reason to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The argument, in a nutshell, goes like this: The birth rate among Arab families in Israel and Palestine is higher than it is for Jewish families. Therefore, at some point in the future the Arabs will become a majority in the area Israel occupies. When that day comes, Israelis will have to choose between having a Jewish state or a democratic one, because giving every person an equal vote would mean losing the Jewish character of the state. Israel’s only hope of maintaining its identity, proponents of the “demographic time bomb” theory would argue, is to soon cut a peace deal that paves the way for an independent Palestinian state.
There’s only one problem: The numbers just don’t add up. Demography relies on more than just birth rates, and similar predictions have a long history of falling flat. Israeli Jews have a healthy and largely stable demographic majority in Israel and the West Bank, and developments in the coming years may even enhance this trend. The demographic time bomb, in other words, is a dud.
In mid-2013, Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics reported a population of 8,018,000 citizens. A fifth of those, numbering 1,658,000, are Israeli citizens who identify themselves as Arab. The estimates for the number of Palestinians living under Israeli control in the West Bank, without voting rights, range from 1.5 million to 2.5 million. Even if one uses the upper-end estimates issued by the Palestinian Authority, then, the combined number of Israeli-Arab citizens and Palestinians amounts to less than a third of Israel’s current population. As for the residents of the Gaza Strip, it is hard to argue for their inclusion, since Israel has not exerted civilian control in the area since 2005.