https://www.realclearpolitics.com/disputed_questions/how-can-we-fix-inflation.html#supply-side-inflation-and-its-cures
The Federal Reserve failed to anticipate the worst inflation since the 1970s and is now administering medicine that will sicken rather than cure the patient. As Fed Chair Jerome Powell said recently: “Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance. Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions.”
This is entirely misguided: unlike the 1970s, today’s inflation is the result of too little labor and too little capital investment – in manufacturing as well as energy. To a great extent, it is a supply-side problem. Discouraging employment and investment by raising interest rates will only make things worse. What the United States requires, rather, is incentives for investment and employment in manufacturing and construction.
The impulse from inflation came from a fiscal shock in the form of federal transfer payments in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
With a lag of zero to six quarters, transfer payments show a high correlation with year-on-year changes in the Consumer Price Index, as in the cross-correlogram above. A predictive equation that relates year-on-year changes in CPI with lagged values of transfer payments explains most of the change in CPI.