RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://www.commentary.org/seth-mandel/the-deal-a-guide-for-the-perplexed/?utm_medium=email&_hsenc=

The emerging ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas is a perplexing document, because the strongest argument in its favor is that the agreement will earn Israel President-elect Trump’s gratitude. Since the value of that goodwill is by definition unknowable, the deal should be judged on its own terms.

Here’s what to expect, barring last-minute changes, and what it means for the future of the conflict.

The ceasefire would begin with Hamas releasing three Israeli hostages (likely to be American citizens) and Israel beginning to remove its troops from populated areas of Gaza. A week later, Hamas is expected to release four more hostages—at which point Israel will begin allowing Gazans to return to north of the Strip. According to the BBC, cars, animal carts and trucks would pass through an Egyptian-Qatari-operated scanner, while the people would go on foot.

The rest of the first phase would see, over the course of about a month, Hamas release another 25 or 26 hostages, most of whom are believed to be alive. Israel would continue facilitating the return of Gazans to the north of the strip while redeploying its troops out of Gaza—save for a half-mile buffer zone on its eastern and northern borders and in the Philadelphi Corridor in the south. Israel would also release about 1,000 Palestinian security inmates in Israeli jails. Of those, nearly 200 are in prison for murder or serving long-term sentences for violence. These would be sent to live outside of the Palestinian territories.

Israel and Hamas are supposed to negotiate the second phase of the deal as they implement the first phase. In the second phase, Hamas would release the remaining hostages in return for another to-be-determined number of Palestinian inmates in Israeli jails. Israel would withdraw from the rest of Gaza. A third phase would see Israel trade the bodies of deceased Hamas fighters in return for the bodies of deceased Israeli hostages.

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In the war ignited by the October 7 massacre, Israel set two goals that were incompatible: retrieving all the hostages and destroying Hamas. I’ve only recently, with the help of a couple of analysts who have pointed this out, come to grasp the incompatibility. I was among those who kept believing Israel could achieve both those goals in tandem with each other.

In the 15+ months of this war so far (it’s still being waged as, at the time of writing, I hear explosions from Gaza 25 miles away), Israel has managed to militarily rescue seven hostages. An eighth was found by troops after his captors had abandoned him.

All of the seven who were military rescued were being held in apartments. Reportedly, after the rescue of four hostages from two apartments in June, all the hostages still being held in apartments were moved to tunnels. There, all of them are closely guarded by terrorists, possibly suicide terrorists. These captors can hear Israeli troops approaching and, if they do, will kill the hostages (and possibly themselves as well). That was what happened to the six Israeli hostages murdered in a tunnel in August.

Some say that, instead of prodding Israel into the current hostage deal at this stage, President Trump should have waited a few more days to take office and then have supported Israel in “starving out” Hamas. But “starving out” Hamas would mean the hostages—already on near-starvation diets and in very weakened condition—would get “starved out” too, and would be in further acute danger from a desperate and vindictive Hamas.

In other words, for those who want to see the hostages freed, something like the current deal is the only option.